Posted on 01/25/2007 8:32:31 PM PST by NormsRevenge
WASHINGTON - Rudy Giuliani's star has hardly dimmed in the five years since terrorists attacked his city on Sept. 11, 2001, and he became a national hero _ the face of U.S. resolve at a time of tragedy.
The Republican dubbed "America's Mayor" hopes to ride that celebrity and his record at City Hall to the White House by emphasizing his leadership skills and embracing the strong-on-security, limited-government tenets of the GOP.
"If he can handle the scrutiny, and if events break his way, sure, he can win," said Fred Siegel, who wrote a Giuliani biography, "The Prince of the City."
Giuliani's quest to capture his party's presidential nomination won't be easy.
He's a moderate Republican from New York City, on the wrong side of social issues in the eyes of hard-core conservatives who are a crucial voting bloc in the primaries. His mayoral tenure was marked by criticism of an overzealous police force. He's linked to the city's scandal-plagued ex-police chief Bernard Kerik. His thicket of business interests could pose conflicts. He's been divorced twice.
"I sure have strengths and weaknesses," Giuliani said recently. "I think that sort of puts me in the same category as just about everybody else that's running. Are my strengths greater or my weaknesses worse? I don't know. You have to sort of examine that. That won't be the issue."
His challenge will be to remind voters of his take-charge attitude on Sept. 11 and his two-term mayoral reign, at the same time his main rivals _ Sen. John McCain (news, bio, voting record) of Arizona and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney _ no doubt will try to exploit his background and record. For now, both are trying to gauge how much of a threat he may be.
Giuliani, who formed a presidential exploratory committee last year, is betting that the Republican rank-and-file will look past his liabilities. His aides dismiss skeptics who say he has too many flaws to win over primary voters a year from now.
"I believe they'll look at the picture as a whole," said Tony Carbonetti, Giuliani's longtime political adviser. "This (New York) was an unmanageable city, and I think what people want today is a manager, someone to lead in difficult times and to lead in not-difficult times.
"We're going to continue to tell that story," he said.
Before Sept. 11, Giuliani was known as the hard-charging prosecutor-turned-politician who cleaned up Times Square, led the city out of fiscal despair and brought Republican rule back to the liberal mecca.
Giuliani, of course, made enemies in the process, but on Sept. 11 even his chronic critics were muted when he took charge amid the rubble of the World Trade Center's twin towers. To many, he became a picture of strength, a reminder of the resilience of the American spirit.
"He has a connection to that. He is unique. On the other hand you look at the politics and you say this is a problem," said Alex Vogel, a Republican strategist in Washington who is not affiliated with any presidential candidate.
"The question is: Can you win a Republican primary a different way? History keeps saying no. But history has never presented us with someone whose favorability numbers are as high as Rudy's."
Indeed, national polls have consistently shown him leading for the GOP nomination, and early surveys in key states show him ahead or competitive. He travels to one important state, New Hampshire, this weekend where he will give the keynote address at the state GOP's annual meeting.
For all the hype since 2001, Giuliani didn't start preparing for a presidential run in earnest until after November's elections. Thus, he has lagged behind McCain and Romney in courting fundraisers, setting up a national organization and hiring ground operatives in key states, although he has made progress on all fronts recently.
Giuliani's aides insist they're making strides toward filling out his campaign. They say he can raise the $80 million to $100 million necessary this year for a serious run. Name recognition, obviously, isn't an issue.
Neither, his supporters argue, is likability. They say he appeals to people across the political spectrum and in every region of the country, meaning he could expand the general election playing field. That, his backers say, makes him the Republican most likely to beat the presumptive Democratic front-runner, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York.
Perhaps.
But first he has to capture the GOP nomination _ and the big question is whether he can win over enough Republicans in states like Iowa and South Carolina, among the first nominating contests where voters are solid conservatives and could be turned off by his stance on social issues.
"Giuliani is going to have to convince people that he's more conservative than his record otherwise would suggest," said Peverill Squire, who teaches politics at the University of Iowa.
The former mayor's support for abortion rights, gay rights and gun control conflict with the hard-line positions of the GOP's right. His supporters say he's not as liberal on those issues as he's made out to be. Still, he's from New York _ and that alone rankles the party's conservative wing.
Despite that, Giuliani's backers contend _ and some Republican strategists agree _ that he could get support from fiscal conservatives because of his record of cutting taxes, curbing spending and promoting small government, particularly now when the base is smarting over the soaring federal deficit under Republicans.
And, with the country still at war, his link to Sept. 11 _ the brand of a strong leader _ could trump the base's concerns about his background and stand on social issues.
"Giuliani's national security credentials will allow him to span ideological divides in the Republican Party and win conservative votes," said Greg Strimple, a GOP strategist in New York who is neutral in the race.
Unknown is whether Giuliani can woo enough of those base Republican voters to win the nomination and, if not, whether he can make up the difference by attracting independents and Democrats.
"His opening could come if people really think that somebody like Hillary is running away with it, and if there's a perception that only Giuliani can beat her," said John Truscott, an unaffiliated Republican strategist in Michigan.
Another factor that could help Giuliani is how the primary calendar shakes out.
New Hampshire and Michigan hold early contests, and New Jersey, California, Illinois, Florida and other states viewed as more hospitable to a moderate may schedule their votes earlier in the year, perhaps lessening the importance of a strong showing for Giuliani in Iowa and South Carolina.
For all the obstacles, even folks with ties to Giuliani's opponents can't deny that the New Yorker has a shot.
Said Ken Khachigian of California, who served as a strategist for President Reagan and was with McCain in 2000: "I would never sell Giuliani short."
Ehhh, abortion is one of the few things Bush has actually been good on.
First of all, Rudy isn't fiscally conservative either. Second of all, conservatism is about respecting individual liberties, including the right to life, and minimizing the size and scope of government. Fiscal conservatism definitely plays a part in this, but it is not the end-all and be-all of conservatism in general.
A statement like this...
Freedom is about authority. Freedom is about the willingness of every single human being to cede to lawful authority a great deal of discretion about what you do.
...represents the polar opposite of conservatism.
The purest embodiment of the culture warrior in the GOP was Rick Santorum. Santorum went down in flames over Pittsburgh. Political ideas by their very nature tend to push at the boundaries of their theory until the electorate can no longer stand the pressure and they revolt at the ballot box. Lefty Liberals did it in the 60's and 70's and America staged a ballot box revolt with Reagan and liberals were justifiably sundered. Then much like the liberls of the 60's and 70's the culture warrior wing of conservatism began pushing at the boundaries and the predictable backlash occurred in 2006. Liberals made a conscious move to the center and the Culture warriors refused to budge an inch. The result was even worse that predicted. Now the Culture warriors have lost control and the Traditionalists have taken control. 2008 will be a battle for the center. That is why the Traditionalists ( RINOS to the CW's) have dramatically taken control. The CW's led the GOP over a cliff in 2006.
If you really believe this nonsense, then the terrorists have succeeded in intimidating you. We're not all going to die. Relax a bit. It's Friday.
Culture warriors are interested in conservative socials issues primarily. Prayer in schools, abortion, intelligent design, etc...Pat Robertson, Alan Keyes, Santorum et al example of CW's
It is wonderful that they are concerned for these social issues. I agree that the left has totally corrupted our culture and we have the responsibility to clean up the filth they've left behind.
They have the right to support the candidate that most represents thier core beliefs in the primaries.
However, If Rudy gets the nomination and they refuse to vote for him, they will be responsible for the consequences.
Hillary and Surrender will be on their heads.
Then you have voted for Hillary by default who doesn't even think abortion should be limited in ANY way. So by your "principled opposition" to Giuliani you are advancing the very cause you loathe. Abortion on demand.
Ironic isn't it?
Actually, I had to read several of your posts before I figured that out.
s/
My sentiments exactly. As I have stated many times on here "losing is not an option" and that is how I have felt in every election. Will vote and support the candidate in the primary that has the best chance at winning in November and defeating the DemocRATs.
Yes...Which is exactly why I think all the Culture warrior's toney moral tubthumping is merely posturing. Like the sinner in church, they will loudly proclaim their commitment to principle. But in the end, faced with the reality of a choice between Rudy and Hillary, they will have ZERO difficulty in voting Rudy. Afterwards they will swear they didn't but the numbers will be undeniable.
Glad to meet a like minded Republican! I love the slogan -- I LIKE RUDY!
Have come to the conclusion those of us who follow sports especially football are also the ones that believe in politics winning is the only way. The WH is too important to play petty party politics about which group is going to get their way and threaten to leave if they don't.
"He has wore personal and political baggage than Giuliani has!"
But less than Clinton or Obama and Newt would be the lone a Conservative
Good to see you again, EV. Always good to have an ardent Keyester in the mix. Have have often wondered if Keyes is the quintessential Culture Warrior. Then it hit me....Nope. He's just a guy hustling his opportunities. The Elmer Gantry of Culture Warriors.
The quintessential culture warrior is Rick Santorum. He is a true believer.
ROFLOL! I am one of those Conservative Republicans who believes winning the WH is absolutely necessary and will support the candidate I believe will be a strong leader, supports the WOT, for smaller government, less taxes, law and order, and strict constitutionalist judges.
Social issues should be at the State level and even then you can go too far at that level in legislating what are commuinity problems.
Without a strong President that will support our military and the WOT, social issues will be shoved aside and all the progress that was made will be set back if Hillary becomes President. A social conservative cannot beat her because all you have to do is look at what happened to Rick Santorum in PA. Social Conservative candidates cannot get enough crossover voters to win in statewide or national elections.
This football fan approaches politics the same way -- winning is the prize because without the win your agenda goes down the tubes.
We had social conservatives voted for Dems for Congress this time because they were more conservative then the Republican in the general but they drank the Dem and MSM koolaid and are now seeing those Dems vote in lockstep with Pelosi. That's what happens when voters don't look at the big picture and we are paying for it today. I vote a straight Republican ticket even when I don't like the Republican because of leadership in the State House and Federally.
I do support most social issues but I am opposed to going too far and turning voters off which is what is happening. In order to make sure you keep getting a piece of the pie, you cannot be greedy and take the whole pie. You are going to get blowback and we did this time as some good conservatives went down to defeat. Where were all the social conservatives that allowed this to happen since we are told now they are the only reason we have won? (sarcasm)
Is it REALLY too much to ask for the republicans to nominate a solid conservative? Must they continually provide choices that we have to vote for as the lesser of two evils?
--
It's about 'electability', yaknow..
some who harbor socialistic tendencies (and won't admit or even realize it in some instances) have to be appeased, and some of them then have the chutzpah to accuse the "unappeasables" aka "Purists" aka True conservatives of being the ones on shaky grounds.. Go figure.
If they were true to the conservative agenda in the first place at election time, we wouldn't have these non-stop peeing contests here and could get down to the issues at hand, but some are here to distract everyone else from that actually happening, jmo...
We live in strange times.
if I recall correctly, Newt walked away from the collaborative effort.. as he saw it was going nowhere for the time being.
personally, the last thing I want Hillary having access to is folks medical or personal records, if ya get my drift. ;-)
Retread, you still haven't told us what your previous screenname was.
Yes, I know Jim is a Keyster, although I don't know how he feels about him after the Keyes slave reparations imbroglio.
But one thing I can tell you ... apparently you have not noticed ... Jim does not throw people off the board because they don't like Keyes ... or disagree. Some of the most heated arguments on this board have been about Alan Keyes.
GO RUDY GO
Actually, it is those who are supporting Rudy McRomney who are "supporting Hillary." The selection of a liberal will destroy the Reagan Republican coalition - quite possibly forever.
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