James Lileks: Don't Underestimate Giuliani (And Newt still can't win!)

The Newhouse News Service ^ | February 6, 2007 | James Lileks

[quidnunc]

Rudy Giuliani is in. Suggested campaign slogan: "He dealt with Brooklyn. He can handle Baghdad.'' He's not a sure thing; he has enough baggage to fill the cargo hold of a cruise ship. His sundry personal-life issues bother social conservatives; the gun control stance dismays the Second Amendment wing of the party; the pro-choice opinions alarm the evangelicals. That leaves about 47 Republicans, right? After all, it's just a party of cousin-marrying yahoos who'd sooner shoot up Planned Parenthood than vote for one of those fish-on-Friday types. Right?

No. Voters are more flexible and forgiving than you might expect. And none of the objections obscure the central appeal of the Rudy candidacy: He'll nuke 'em if he has to. That won't be the central theme of his campaign, of course, but it's the unstated strength of his candidacy. He's not a wuss. Look at the rest of the field:

Mitt Romney. He's a heavy fave, but the M-word makes his support in the evangelical community unsure. Many will vote for him, since he's an all-around moral guy, and no one wants a public debate over doctrinal differences. Other evangelicals regard his faith as something between David Koresh and Scientology, and would rather vote for Joe Lieberman. (Him you could convert!) Romney has an abortion flip-flop to confront, which softens his support as well. He's a solid candidate thus far because he's, well, solid: He appears hewn from the Presidential Quarry.

On the other hand, he could be a genial cyborg from an invading race. Wouldn't exactly surprise anyone.

-snip-

[familyop]

[familyop]

Rudy Giuliani in Drag with Donald Trump
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1776474/posts

[jellybean]

Fred Thompson hasn't declared, but should. He has been waging a stealth campaign simply by appearing as a guest host for Paul Harvey. He sounds like a man with his boots on the desk and a star on his chest. As a veep, he would make John Edwards look like Peter Pan. For the debate, Edwards might as well show up in green tights.

Fred Thompson's name is finally starting to circulate! Excellent!

FRED THOMPSON

The RIGHT man for the job!

[Blackirish]

Thus he's benefitting from a temporary case of the well known/unknown syndrome. He has name recognition, but as his views on issues of importance to conservative voters become known his support will diminish and redirect to the leading conservative candidate.

---

Not true. The MSM over and over that Rudy can't win because of his social positions. Yet knowledgeable conservative voters continue to praise Rudy. Because of the incompetence of the current group of Repubs even though they held all three branches ...08 is less about social conservatism and more abut accomplishment and competence....a "can do attitude" which Rudy has in spades.

[garv]

I agree, I think Brownback committed political suicide with his anti-surge position. He does, however, have a deep well of good will with social conservatives.

His supporters will have to find another candidate, someone like, hmm, Newt.

[Miss Didi]

I love Newt. He's the smartest person in the field but he absolutely has no charisma and can't shed his baggage. I don't know why. I love to listen to the man but I know that he can't win so why waste the energy.

Thank you. And he reminds me of the Keebler elf.

[KoRn]

Nice! He needs to run for the top of the ticket!!

[Blackirish]

Forget Thompson....he's not even running and even if he wanted to he's out of time.

Feb. 5, 2008, will be Super-Duper Tuesday with, perhaps, Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma and Utah voting on the same day..


Think about that. That means that some obscure nominee won't be able to go to IA and NH shake some hands and come from nowhere.

They will need an entire national ground game and close to 100 million to buy radio and TV ads within a few months.

They have to make the ads ....hire thousands of people..pollsters...consultants...the logistics in this time constraints are staggering.

There are 5-6 people in the country who can pull that off. Rudy,Romney,McCaine, Hillary and maybe Obama, Colin Powell,Edwards.

They front loaded the primaries. It's pretty much game over. Unless Rudy runs as a liberal...which we know he won't..or pulls a Dean Scream...he's to smart for that...game over.....only Romney could keep up...and he's not so bad. McCaine is too damaged and old and he has stabbed too many Repub suits in the back ...the long knives are looking for payback.

It's Rudy's to lose.

Anyone polling in single digits is already toast.

[familyop]

[nopardons]

Obsessive compulsive behavior, done by someone suffering greatly.

[AmishDude]

Specter spam from 2004, check the double-spaced posts. All the same. Click on "Show more results" and the spam goes back in time!

[Tarheel]

Good grief I just realized you have ripped off some Laura Ashley colors in your perverted use of spam. Just who is your decorator?

[narses]

Good on you!

[narses]

A NYC liberal? Spiff, who did the color scheme?

[garv]

There is no question that a large segment of Republican voters are not familiar with Giuliani's positions on many important issues. We'll see where the numbers go when that changes.

[garv]

Good grief I just realized you have ripped off some Laura Ashley colors in your perverted use of spam. Just who is your decorator?

I think it was Rudy's dress maker.

[Tarheel]

How about no redundant posts added to your list,eh?

[Mo1]

can't say I'm surprised

[PhiKapMom]

ROFLOL! Only one more for now! :)

[onyx]

What a shock, huh?