Posted on 03/20/2007 8:21:54 AM PDT by areafiftyone
March 20, 2007
Giuliani Top Choice Among Both Moderate, Conservative RepublicansGingrich, Romney do better among conservatives than moderates
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GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- With the 2008 Republican presidential field beginning to come into shape, there are still questions and apparent opportunities for a favorite "conservative" candidate to emerge. The three leading announced contenders -- Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, and Mitt Romney -- have taken stances in the past that are out of step, if not unpopular, with conservative voters, although all have taken recent steps to try to reassure conservatives. The key question is whether conservatives will be able to look past any differences they may have with these candidates and support one of them for the nomination -- or hope that a more solidly conservative candidate emerges from the back of the pack or enters the race.
An analysis of Republicans' primary nomination preferences in recent Gallup Polls show that while conservative Republicans are less likely to support Rudy Giuliani than liberal or moderate Republicans, the former New York City mayor is the clear leader among both groups. John McCain, who is in second among both groups, also fares slightly better among moderates than conservatives. Though well behind the two leaders, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney are much more likely to be supported by conservatives than moderates and liberals. At the same time, conservative and moderate Republicans' basic favorable ratings of Giuliani are highly positive and similar between the two groups, as are their ratings of McCain. Romney's favorable ratings are better among conservatives than moderate and liberal Republicans.
Nomination Preference by Ideology
Gallup combined data from its last two Republican nomination trial heats, conducted Feb. 9-11, 2007, and Mar. 2-4, 2007, to get a better sense of how the candidates fare among ideological groups. Both polls showed Giuliani leading among all Republicans over McCain by a healthy margin, with Gingrich third.
Since relatively few Republicans identify as liberals, the responses of liberals and moderates are combined into one group. Republicans are about twice as likely to identify as conservative when asked about their ideological leanings than as either moderate or liberal.
The analysis shows that Giuliani is the top choice among both conservative Republicans and liberal and moderate Republicans, though he has greater support among the latter group. McCain finishes second among both groups, and also polling slightly better among moderates and liberal Republicans.
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Preference for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, |
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|
Moderate/ |
% |
Conservative |
% |
|
Rudy Giuliani |
48 |
Rudy Giuliani |
38 |
|
John McCain |
26 |
John McCain |
20 |
|
Mitt Romney |
3 |
Newt Gingrich |
14 |
|
George Pataki |
2 |
Mitt Romney |
8 |
|
Sam Brownback |
2 |
Tommy Thompson |
2 |
|
Newt Gingrich |
2 |
|
|
|
Tommy Thompson |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
All others |
3 |
All others |
9 |
|
|
|
||
|
No preference |
11 |
No preference |
9 |
Giuliani and McCain are the only candidates with any significant support among moderate and liberal Republicans, with everyone else at 3% or less. On the other hand, Gingrich (14%) and Romney (8%) get higher support among conservative Republicans than liberal or moderate Republicans, but both trail the leading candidates by substantial margins among conservatives.
Gingrich has yet to make his presidential intentions known, saying he will decide whether to formally enter the race later this year. His showing among conservative Republicans indicates he could be a factor in the race, particularly since Republican primary and caucus voters are mostly conservative in their ideological orientation.
If Gingrich does not enter the race, Romney and Giuliani may benefit more than the other Republican candidates among conservatives. When the data are re-calculated by substituting Gingrich supporters' second choice for the nomination in place of their Gingrich vote, Giuliani's support among conservative Republicans increases to 43% (from 38%) and Romney pushes into the double digits at 11%. McCain's support is generally unchanged (21% compared to 20%) with Gingrich in the race. No other candidate gains more than a point in support among conservatives.
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Preference for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, |
|||
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Moderate/ |
% |
Conservative |
% |
|
Rudy Giuliani |
49% |
Rudy Giuliani |
43% |
|
John McCain |
27% |
John McCain |
21% |
|
Mitt Romney |
3% |
Mitt Romney |
11% |
|
George Pataki |
3% |
Sam Brownback |
2% |
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Sam Brownback |
2% |
Duncan Hunter |
2% |
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Tommy Thompson |
2% |
Tommy Thompson |
2% |
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Tom Tancredo |
2% |
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All others |
4% |
All others |
7% |
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|
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No preference |
11% |
No preference |
10% |
Favorable Ratings of Candidates
In addition to measuring the candidates' current support for the nomination, Gallup has also asked Republicans for their overall opinions (favorable or unfavorable) of the leading contenders in the last two months. In general, Giuliani (80%) is viewed more favorably than McCain (68%) by Republicans regardless of their ideology. Eighty percent of both conservative and moderate Republicans have a favorable opinion of Giuliani. McCain's favorable ratings are 66% among moderate and liberal Republicans and 69% among conservative Republicans.
While Republicans' opinions of both Giuliani and McCain are similar by ideology, there is more variation in views of Romney, though the difference is largely due to conservatives being more familiar with him than moderates and liberals. Among conservative Republicans, 38% view Romney favorably, 13% unfavorably, and 49% do not know him well enough to give a rating. Among moderate and liberal Republicans, 23% have a favorable view, 11% an unfavorable one, and 66% cannot rate him.
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Favorable Ratings for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, |
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Favorable |
Un- |
No |
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% |
% |
% |
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Rudy Giuliani |
|
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All Republicans |
80 |
11 |
10 |
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Moderate/Liberal |
80 |
7 |
13 |
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Conservative |
80 |
13 |
8 |
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John McCain |
|
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All Republicans |
68 |
19 |
13 |
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Moderate/Liberal |
66 |
17 |
17 |
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Conservative |
69 |
21 |
10 |
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Mitt Romney |
|
|
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All Republicans |
32 |
12 |
56 |
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Moderate/Liberal |
23 |
11 |
66 |
|
Conservative |
38 |
13 |
49 |
Gingrich's favorable ratings were asked in just one poll, the March 2-4, 2007, poll. Fifty-four percent of Republicans viewed him favorably and 30% unfavorably in that poll, with 16% not having an opinion. Thus, Republicans give Gingrich the highest negative rating among the leading candidates. The data suggest that he is viewed much more favorably by conservative Republicans than by moderate and liberal Republicans so he may not be quite as vulnerable in the primaries as the overall data suggest. Gingrich would have a much harder time in the general election, though, as he is the only leading contender of either party who has a net negative favorable rating (29% favorable and 49% unfavorable) among all Americans.
The favorable ratings show that conservative Republicans are apparently quite comfortable with both Giuliani and McCain -- both are given positive reviews by more than two-thirds of conservative Republicans. That would indicate that there may not be a substantial push to draft a conservative candidate among the Republican rank and file. However, that is not to say that if one emerges in the next several months that the candidate could not be competitive with the current group of frontrunners.
Survey Methods
These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 849 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 9-11, 2007, and Mar. 2-4, 2007. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±4 percentage points.
Results based on the sample of 552 conservative Republicans have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±5 percentage points.
Results based on the sample of 289 moderate or liberal Republicans have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±6 percentage points.In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
Well I wish Ron Paul well in the debates. I believe there are at least 3 of them. Will he be in all the debates?
Thank you for answering my question. There has been a lot of very mean comments being made to posters. To be honest, it has made me not even want to read Free Republic. The sad fact is that except for the Rudy posters, who actually post articles about why they are supporting their candidates, I was seeing nothing about why people are supporting Duncan Hunter or Fred Thompson. There was no case being made except for vote for him because I said so and your dumb if you don't see my point of view. I find Fred Thompson to be interesting and you actually told me something I didn't know about him. I'm still not sold on his Presidential qualifications but considering he hasn't even announced his candidacy, it's still early.
Very good point.
But Fred is not running yet and, I admit it, my head says Mitt but my heart is not in it. and since I see Rudy as the worst choice of the lot, I chose to point out his glaring defects in hopes that some would shake off his spell and jump on the Mitt bandwagon or help pressure Fred.
Wow, that's big! Good for him, and you are right, it's the base, stupid! LOL.
Absolutely! You are correct.
Just do me a favor and don't call him, Rudy McRomney.
Haha! Well, that's just my shorthand way of saying that when you combine the support for Rudy, McCain, and Romney, it's a powerful majority of the GOP support, that's all! ;-)
I think I prefer just Rudy, LOL.
I completely understand your point of view. Now you know how conservatives in California and in my state of Pennsylvania feel. We can elect Specter, but it is not possible for a social conservative like Santorum to win in my state anymore. I suspect that what is true of PA is also true of OH, VA and MO. Our urban and suburban populations have grown too fast. If it is true for these four states, then a conservative cannot win the general in November. That's the reality we are confronted with, and I have seen absolutely no data to suggest that the trends of 2006 are not continuing. The bleeding in the party must be stopped, and if that means we lose good conservatives like you to get more secular suburban voters then I guess that's what we'll have to do. The Schwartzenegger model is the only one that looks viable at the moment.
FR at most times is an echo chamber of thought in my opinion.
Echo Chamber definition:
Metaphorically, the term echo chamber can refer to any situation in which information or ideas are amplified by transmission inside an enclosed space.
For example, observers of journalism in the mass media describe an echo chamber effect in media discourse. One purveyor of information will make a claim, which many like-minded people then repeat, overhear, and repeat again (often in an exaggerated or otherwise distorted form) until most people assume that some extreme variation of the story is true.
Due to this condition arising in online communities, participants may find their own opinions constantly echoed back to them, and in doing so reinforce a certain sense of truth that resonates with individual belief systems. This can create some significant challenges to critical discourse within an online medium.
Really bad typo.
Replace: " I'm a moderate conservative with a distinct secular flair who believes in creation and does not subscribe to any religion."
With: "I'm a moderate conservative with a distinct secular flair who does not believe in creation and does not subscribe to any religion."
This poll is crap! I don't know one conservative who would vote for Rudy!
Very good and this one is a keeper....
Rudy's Right Record
Giuliani’s pre-9/11 performance should ease conservatives’ doubts.
By Deroy Murdock, National Review
The same Beltway experts who anointed Senator John McCain (R., Ariz.) the GOP frontrunner, even as he under-polled fellow presidential contender Rudolph W. Giuliani, now parrot equally dodgy talking points: When Republicans meet “the real Rudy,” they will abandon New York’s former mayor like cattle fleeing a burning barn. Then, the wobbly Washington wisdom continues, Giuliani’s three marriages, and his less-than-solidly right-wing views on gays, guns, and gametes will torpedo his buoyant presidential hopes.
These seers now detect unhappiness with the GOP aspirants. They cite a recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll in which 26 percent of Republican primary voters were dissatisfied with Giuliani, McCain, and former Massachusetts governor Willard Mitt Romney, among others. However, 56 percent called these choices satisfactory. This lines up with the 57 percent of conservative Republicans who preferred Giuliani, versus 31 percent for McCain. More broadly, Republicans backed Giuliani 38 percent to McCain’s 24, former House speaker Newt Gingrich’s 10, Romney’s 8, and 2 percent each for Kansas Senator Sam Brownback and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee.
But what if voters like Giuliani better once they understand his pre-9/11 performance? Educating Republicans on his complete mayoral record — and soon — may be Giuliani’s best bet for extinguishing lingering grumbling about his candidacy.
I recently visited Baltimore, Charlotte, Richmond, Salem, Oregon; Seattle, and Johnstown, Pennsylvania, mainly to deliver speeches sponsored by Young America’s Foundation. I conversed with conservative activists, College Republican leaders, university professors, and think-tank scholars, among others.
These Americans vividly remember Giuliani emerging from the ashes of September 11, like a latter-day Churchill rising from the rubble of the London Blitz. However, these involved and informed citizens knew startlingly little about Giuliani’s other mayoral achievements:
Through robust policing, Giuliani drove overall crime down 56.1 percent, while chopping homicides 66.6 percent, from 1,946 in 1993 to 649 in 2001.
Abortions on Giuliani’s watch dropped 16.9 percent, according to figures from the New York State Office of Vital Statistics. It reports 103,997 legal abortions in New York City in 1993 and 86,466 in 2001. Abortions fell more quickly under the pro-choice Giuliani than they did nationwide. The pro-choice Guttmacher Institute tracked 1,495,000 abortions across the U.S. in 1993 versus 1,303,000 in 2001. This 12.8 percent national decrease lagged the swifter fall-off in local abortions during Giuliani’s tenure. Meanwhile, taxpayer-funded Medicaid abortions plunged 22.9 percent under Giuliani. Giuliani’s pro-choice rhetoric seemed to accompany an official hands-off policy that otherwise did not promote abortion.
Gotham’s foster-care population fell 38 percent as Giuliani helped loving families adopt 17,804 boys and girls.
By fighting fraud and finding work for legitimate beneficiaries, Giuliani cut welfare rolls 58 percent, starting two years before federal welfare reform. Giuliani renamed welfare offices “Job Centers.”
Giuliani privatized 23,625 previously confiscated, city-owned dwellings, 78 percent of supply, benefiting family and individual homeowners and tenants.
Pursuant to his “One Standard. One City” campaign slogan, Giuliani dumped Gotham’s 20 percent set-aside and 10-percent overbid bonus for minority and female contractors. “The whole idea of quotas to me perpetuates discrimination,” he explained. He initiated this on his 24th day in office, far exceeding any colorblindness legislation Congress even debated during the 12-year “Republican Revolution.”
Similarly, Giuliani shuttered the David Dinkins-era Offices of African-American/Caribbean Affairs, Asian Affairs, European-American Affairs, Gay Community Affairs, Immigrant Affairs, Jewish Community Affairs, and Latino Affairs.
Giuliani’s $10 million Charter School Improvement Fund helped 3,286 pupils in 17 new charter schools, up from $0, zero students, and zero campuses in 1997. He ended tenure for school principals, so slackers could be sacked. He also stopped social promotion; students needed to complete grade-level work to matriculate.
Giuliani ended “open admissions” at the City University of New York. Mean SAT scores for incoming freshmen rose from 863 in 1993 to 1049 in 2001, a 21.6 percent improvement. Stricter entrance requirements did not impede minorities, as critics ominously predicted. First-time freshmen enrollment at CUNY’s seven senior colleges grew from 7,104 in fall 1999 to 9,576 in fall 2006, up 34.8 percent. Black-student arrivals simultaneously increased from 1,655 to 1,765 (up 6.65 percent). Hispanic freshmen jumped 37.1 percent, from 1,771 to 2,428. Meanwhile, blacks earned 5.15 percent more bachelor degrees, from 3,843 in 1999-2000 to 4,041 in 2005-2006. For Hispanics, the equivalent figures were 2,456 and 3,032 — a 23.45 percent advancement.
In September 1999, Giuliani loudly wondered why taxpayers helped finance a Brooklyn Museum exhibition that featured a painting of the Virgin Mary decorated with a dried chunk of elephant dung. Photos of vaginas and recta, clipped from adult magazines, also festooned artist Chris Ofili’s depiction of Jesus’ mom.
“The city shouldn’t have to pay for sick stuff,” Giuliani said. Often decried by Giuliani critics as an attack on free speech, he merely asked why such a provocative work could not appear in a private museum, without government subsidy.
Meanwhile, ex-pornography mecca Times Square now welcomes families, tourists, and locals for fully clothed musicals like The Lion King and Mary Poppins. Under Giuliani, the city prohibited sex shops within 500 feet of schools, churches, and residential communities.
Beyond these socially conservative victories, Giuliani governed as a Reaganesque supply-sider:
Giuliani scrapped three taxes and slashed 20 others, lowering Gotham’s tax burden by 17 percent and saving individual and business taxpayers $9.8 billion. A family of four earning $50,000 saw its local taxes plummet 23.7 percent.
While inflation averaged 3.9 percent, Giuliani’s average spending grew 2.9 percent annually. If the departed GOP Congress were that fiscally disciplined, the next federal budget would be $2.275 trillion — $625 billion cheaper, Cato Institute fiscal analyst Stephen Slivinski calculates.
While hiring 12 percent more cops and 12.8 percent more teachers, Giuliani sliced other positions 17.2 percent. Overall, municipal headcount fell 3.1 percent.
These policies helped cut local unemployment from 10.4 percent in 1993 to 5.7 percent in 2001. Tourist arrivals rose 32 percent in that period, while the Big Apple’s population grew 9.3 percent. People who came stuck around, and those already here stopped evacuating, as they were doing before Giuliani Time. Not insignificantly, the personal incomes of New Yorkers ballooned 53 percent during Giuliani’s tenure.
Rudy got this done thanks largely to a management style that he described Wednesday at a $2 million Manhattan fundraiser: “I’m impatient and single-minded about my goals.”
Giuliani’s legacy has earned him the endorsements of such screaming liberals as President Bush’s former solicitor general, Ted Olson, as well as Senator David Vitter (R., La.) and Congressman Pete Sessions (R., Texas) — both proud owners of 100 percent ratings from the National Right to Life Committee.
Before Giuliani’s enemies caricature him as a divorce-driven, abortion-peddling, gun-grabbing transvestite, he should familiarize Republicans with his mayoral accomplishments. From Westwood to Washington’s echo chamber, Rudy Giuliani and his supporters should specify how he rescued America’s largest left-wing city through Reaganite social and economic reforms.
— Deroy Murdock is a New York-based columnist with the Scripps Howard News Service and a media fellow with the Hoover Institution.
THAT from someone who supports Ron Paul. No thank you. I'll pass and Hunter is the only one who shows any credibility in regards to the threat we are facing with the inevitable showdown with China while we are incapable of producing our own weapons of war.
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