Posted on 03/30/2007 4:01:10 PM PDT by Cincinna
(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Nicolas Sarkozy remains the most popular contender in the French presidential race, according to a tracking poll by Ipsos released by SFR and Le Point. 30.5 per cent of respondents would vote for the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) candidate in next month’s ballot.
Ségolène Royal of the Socialist Party (PS) is second with 25 per cent, followed by Union for French Democracy (UDF) leader François Bayrou with 18.5 per cent, and Jean-Marie Le Pen of the National Front (FN) with 13 per cent.
Support is lower for Revolutionary Communist League (LCR) member Olivier Besancenot, Marie-George Buffet of the French Communist Party (PCF), Arlette Laguiller of Workers’ Struggle (LO), farmer-activist José Bové, Movement for France (MPF) leader Philippe de Villiers, Frédéric Nihous of Hunting, Fishing, Nature, Traditions (CPNT), Dominique Voynet of the Greens (Verts), and Gérard Schivardi of the Worker’s Party (PT).
Sarkozy served as France’s interior minister. Royal is the leader of the regional government of Poitou-Charentes. In a prospective run-off scenario, Sarkozy holds a six-point advantage over Royal. In addition, Bayrou leads Sarkozy by four points.
On Mar. 27, a police officer arrested an illegal immigrant at Paris’ Gare du Nord station, after he allegedly refused to show his ticket. The officers claim the 33-year-old man "attacked staff", while witnesses declared he was "manhandled."
Sarkozy justified the reaction of the police, which included the use of tear gas to disperse a crowd, saying, "I want to tell the French that I will not be on the side of fraudsters, cheats, dishonest people—those who think that in order to get heard, they must demolish a train station and break public equipment paid for by taxpayers."
Royal criticized Sarkozy’s record, saying, "In five years with a rightist government that has made security its main campaign issue, you can see that it’s failure all down the line."
The UMP’s Jacques Chirac won the presidential ballot in 1995, and was re-elected in a run-off over Le Pen in May 2002. The next election is scheduled for Apr. 22. If no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots, a run-off would take place on May 6.
Polling Data
Who would you vote for in the presidential election?
Mar. 27 Mar. 24 Mar. 17
Nicolas Sarkozy 30.5% 30% 29.5%
Ségolène Royal 25% 25.5% 25%
François Bayrou 18.5% 19% 21%
Jean-Marie Le Pen 13% 13.5% 12.5%
Since the riot several days ago at the Gare du Nord train station in Paris, UMP candidate Nicolas Sarkozy has taken much of the heat for his alleged failures as Interior Minister, a post he resigned just before the riot.
Yet a new poll from Le Figaro suggests that he might actually gain political support because of them. According to the survey, taken March 28-29, 39% of the French believe that there will be less violence than the type that just occured if Sarkozy is elected president. He is followed by Jean-Marie Le Pen with 38%, Francois Bayrou with 19%, and Segolene Royal will 17%.
Ironically again, the issue of national identity, which generated immediate and widespread criticism after introduced by Sarkozy, may also work in his favor. 30% of the French believe Sarkozy is most credible on the matter, far ahead of 19% Le Pen, 15% Royal, and 8% Bayrou.
The polls I have seen show Sarko as the beneficiary of the after riot fallout. He is seen as the candidate most capable of dealiung with the situation of lawlessness.
Please let me know if you want to be on or off the French Election (((PING)))List.
A question for you, could a candidate win the Presidency outright without a second voting round ? If so, what would they have to score ? Over 50% ?
This is getting interesting. I imagine there will be a spike-up in street violence if Sarko wins.
It was as we suggested: Sarkozy went up a bit, Royal went down a bit, and Bayrou went down a bit.
I am surprised that Le Pen went down a bit, but I don't really believe it. Who admits that he supports Le Pen?
I like what Sarkozy said so much I will quote it: "I want to tell the French that I will not be on the side of fraudsters, cheats, dishonest people—those who think that in order to get heard, they must demolish a train station and break public equipment paid for by taxpayers."
PRECISELY!
That is PRECISELY the right attitude.
Enough of this criminality.
If Sarkozy can regain control of the streets, we will actually have a better feel for the real state of race relations, labor relations and every other thing. The problem is that when criminals are so emboldened they will en masse assault the police, it becomes like football hooliganism which eclipses the game.
So, if Sarkozy stays the course (and he will), the when he wins, the little prick will do as he has done before, but he will have nobody to countermand him anymore, so we may just end up with the whiff of grapeshot. I will not put it past him. (We all know Le Pen would do it.) And if that's what it takes, then so be it. If the laws are generally disregarded, it doesn't matter what the policies are anyway, does it.
It is not over yet, of course. Certainly there will be a second round.
Are any of these guys pro US, anti-muslim? Are any of them conservatives as we would understand the term?
For those of us who don't follow French politics, this article tells us nothing.
Good news for Sarkozy which is good news for France.
Hope he sicks the CRS on the lot of them.
I was wondering if you could slip in with 40%, though Sarkozy would have considerable difficulty getting up there (unless Bayrou dropped out and endorsed him).
No, it takes a majority.
Sarkozy is probably in good shape now.
People are tired of this crime. Really, really tired of it.
And this time, in particular, there is no masking it behind anything else.
This wasn't people fuming in the banlieu - it's the Gare du Nord!
This wasn't racial - the police were standing there enforcing fares.
This wasn't some police brutality gig - it's all on camera.
And this wasn't the jihad - it was jackasses of all species.
Crime on the loose. Crime defying the law. Crime attacking the authorities and destroying public and private property, because these assholes have gotten to think they are above the law, immune to it.
There isn't any point in discussing policy when there is a large segment of people openly flouting the basic laws already there. They need to be smashed, hard, fast, and relentlessly. Sarkozy or Le Pen are the only ones who will do it, and Sarkozy is the only one of the pair who is acceptable to the French, so Sarkozy needs to win, not because he's right on most things, but because he's right on crime, and "most things" don't matter if the criminals are running the place.
The big question... is it too late to truly do something about it all ? Something swift, ruthless, and decisive to deal with this dreadful crisis ?
In 7 years I've seen myself go from absolutely neutral towards Mohammadans to favoring their complete and total deportation from every civilized country on the face of the earth. As long as they remain in more supposedly enlightened and progressive (not in the Communist sense) societies and refuse to assimilate to non-9th century thinking, they will be a grave threat to the security of these nations. It's outrageous that some sections of Paris (and other cities, no doubt) have become so out-of-control with these inhabitants that they resemble the nightmarish scenarios painted in "Escape From New York" or "A Clockwork Orange." Far more frightening than the halcyon days of Naziism and Stalinism, something I'd never thought possible.
C'est tres interessant, ça.
Sarkozy is anything but cozy with law breakers. He is rather outspoken about it and, when he could, did something about it as Interior Minister.
I do not see how the unRoyal one can get away with no stand on crime, only negatives about Sarkozy. Yet, it seems to be part of her campaign tactics to present no crime policy on her own.
Well, I think she does have a policy on this. "Education (of lawbreakers), integration (of criminals into society?), distribution of wealth (to poor crooks)".
yitbos
Thanks Cincinna.
They have more Marxists, socialists and communists people's parties running than rabbits have baby rabbits.
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