Posted on 04/14/2007 1:38:27 AM PDT by Cincinna
Le Nouvel Observateur claims that the French internal information agency "Les Renseignements généraux" (RG) has carried out a 15,000 person survey ahead of next week's election, codenamed "Mercure". According to the secret report, Nicolas Sarkozy will finish with 25% of 26%, followed by Jean-Marie Le Pen and Francois Bayrou tied with 19%, and Socialist candidate Segolene Royal just slightly behind.
The report has been officially denied by RG, stating that "Since July 15, 2004, we no longer have the right to conduct electoral forecasts." However, some close to the Interior Ministry told the Observateur that "They (RG) cannot do differently than to deny this activity, because it has become illegal for three years."
The existence of the report has been confirmed.
(Excerpt) Read more at tempsreel.nouvelobs.com ...
Keep "le Popcorn" close, this is going to be a long ride.
Or, the report may have been leaked by the Socialists who are in total disarray and panic. They would hope that people fearing a le Pen v Sarko runoff would drop their plans to vote for the Trotskyites, Communists, anti-Capitalists, and anti-globalist Far Left and vote for Royal, putting her in the runoff.
This would be to no avail since every single poll since January has her losing to Sarko in the run-off.
What’s the story on Bayrou? If he’s like Sarkozy but didn’t support the rididulous law banning citizen reporting that Sarko pushed, that would be great!
French Toast
Bookmarked, thanks.
This is getting more and more interesting the closer France gets to election day. Still, I would be very surprised if this latest prediction does come true since it’s very difficult to truly tie in any major election anywhere in the world.
Interesting information, and if it turns out to be true would mark a rightward shift in French politics. I found it particularly interesting that Jean Le Pen was tied for second.
Keep in mind, though, that skulduggery in politics knows few bounds.
Question: It the true date of this article Mar or should it read April?
Le Pen vs. Sarkozy makes the most sense, because after the riots, as recently resurrected by the Incident of the Gare du Nord, crime is the issue. Crime and law and order.
On this point, Le Pen has been dead right for a quarter of a century, and Sarkozy is the only major candidate since...ever (not counting DeGaulle, but he was “George Washington” and didn’t “run” on any platform as such)...who is frankly and firmly law-and-order.
Contrary to popular belief here, the French are not stupid.
And that’s why I think that given the choice, they’re heading straight towards the only two candidates who offer law and order. Le Pen has been demonized as Hitler for a quarter century. Well, the French aren’t voting for Hitler. Really, Le Pen is Archie Bunker, and he’s been right on law and order. And if there were no Sarkozy, after the Gare du Nord reminded everybody how bad it’s gotten Le Pen may very well have WON the election. The French would hold their noses, swallow hard, and decide that being accused of voting for a “fascist” is a hell of a lot better than having the country burned down around them.
Fortunately, there is Sarkozy, so the French aren’t going to have to make that choice. Still, I am convinced that the law-and-order issue is SO predominant in French minds now, that the French will give themselves a choice between Sarko and Archie Bunker, so that either way, the law and order issue gets addressed.
For my part, I am comfortable with that. Under current circumstances, Sarkozy is the best choice. But if Sarkozy were like Chirac or, really, any of the other UMP fellows, I’d vote for Le Pen myself. It is time.
I don't think we ever said stupid. Arrogant, self centered, selfish, self serving, favoring style over substance, with an over blown view of themselves is more what we had in mind. But stupid, not.
Bayrou seems to be a libertarian...
I think this was a ploy rather than a leak, that there is no such poll, and that the Socialist Party is trying to scare its base to get a higher turnout.
Think Anti American liberal democrat.
In a multi party race like this, almost anything can happen. The French establishment is firmly on what we would call the left, they hate and despise the right, and they are likely to do almost anything to prevent a Sarko victory.
It won’t be over until the fat lady sings.
"Information, centralized, this week, by a cell of ten civils servant, street of the Willow plantations, in Paris, is intended to nourish the reflexion of the Minister of Interior Department. This survey “Mercury”, giving Nicolas Sarkozy at the head, Royal Ségolène eliminated, and Francois Bayrou and Jean-Marie Le Pen with the elbow with elbow, with a “positive economic situation” for this last, could announce a second turn between Nicolas Sarkozy and the leader of the National Face."
"This information, that the Beauvau place cannot reveal, could cause a political deflagration. Certain advisors specify that the advertisement of a possible defeat of the socialist candidate to first all could awake the undecided ones and to encourage them to turn over towards a vote in its favour as of the first turn. “Certain candidates, Sarkozy, or Bayrou, do not may find it beneficial any to reveal the results of this survey, underlines a civil servant of the RG. The revelation of this information could make go up Mrs Royal…”"
Google Translation might leave a little to be desired but the idioms and phrases can be easily interpreted.
yitbos
OooOps! I goofed! Thanks for pointing out the error in the date. It should be April 13, 2007.
I don’t think there is any validity to that theory.
Nothing in Sarko’s history even hints that he would have anything to do with Le Pen.
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