Me too.
Want some popcorn?
Posted on 05/15/2007 9:44:06 AM PDT by Sleeping Beauty
To Iraq's Kurdish leadership, the issue of how to apportion the third-largest pools of oil in the world is "a make-or-break deal" for the country as a whole, a top official told United Press International.
"The oil issue for us is a red line. It will signify our participation in Iraq or not," Qubad Talabani, son of Iraqi President Jalal Talabani and the Kurdistan Regional Government's representative to the United States, said in an interview from his Washington office.
The KRG and the central Iraqi government reached a deal in February on the hydrocarbons framework -- though not on other key companion bills -- and a self-imposed deadline of late May seemed possible to meet.
But the Iraqi Oil Ministry, at a meeting it set up last month in Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates, with other Iraqi oil experts and politicians, unveiled the annexes to the hydrocarbons law -- its list distributing control of oil fields between central and KRG control -- and a law reestablishing the Iraq National Oil Co., which Kurdish leadership automatically rejected.
"This sets us back to square one, a point that's unacceptable to us. We're trying to modernize Iraq, build a new Iraq, built on new foundations, new policies. The symbol of this new Iraq will be how it manages its oil infrastructure," Talabani said. "And if people want to revert back to Saddam-era policies of a state-controlled oil sector with no accountability, with no accountability to the parliament or the people of the country, with no oversight except from one or two, then I'm sorry, that is not the Iraq that the Kurds bought into. That is not the Iraq that the Kurds would want to be part of."
"If a centralized oil regime is imposed on us, we will not participate in the state of Iraq," Talabani said. "And we have to make it absolutely clear to our friends in Washington, to our brothers in Baghdad, this is a make-or-break deal for Iraq."
He said Iraq needs to embrace the free market and break free from the nationalized mindset. Numerous oil and Iraqi experts as well as key Iraq oil union leaders have told UPI that Iraqis see nationalized oil with pride. And opponents of the oil law also say it gives too much to foreign companies.
The Kurds, however, have little to show from the Saddam Hussein era, aside from persecution, death and little investment in its economy or oil sector. They gained autonomy in 1991 and, governing an autonomous three-province region now, are prospering. Airplanes fly internationally from the airport in Irbil, Iraqi Kurdistan's capital. Violence in the region is relatively nil compared with the rest of the country, though the first major attack in more than four years killed 14 people in Irbil Wednesday. Despite lacking the law, the KRG has signed multiple deals with foreign companies to develop its oil and natural gas sector.
Iraq only produces about two million barrels per day. With investment -- domestic or foreign -- Iraq's 115 billion barrels in reserves could handle much higher output.
Many of the arguments over the law are related to the 2005 constitution. It was written vaguely to garner support. Now there is a dispute as to which oil fields are to be governed by the central government and which by the regions.
Tariq Shafiq, an Iraq oil expert now living in Amman, Jordan, and drafter of the original law last summer, said the Iraq National Oil Co. should be independent of the oil ministry, and regions could choose the company's board of directors. (Shafiq has since come out against the law, saying it has been altered too much in negotiations.) He said Iraq needs a central strategy for the best management of the country's oil.
Talabani said the KRG favors an INOC limited in scope and open to foreign investment, and says the current law gives INOC control over 93 percent of Iraq's oil. "This will hamper needed investment," he said.
"It's only by bringing in the biggest and the best from the international community, to partner with, not to steal, but to partner with the Iraqi government, can we develop Iraq's oil accordingly," Talabani said. "And there's a worrying unwillingness to act under a free-market-style concept here. It won't go through. It won't go through the parliament this way. There will be too many people opposed to it."
Other bills needing to be passed include a reorganization of the oil ministry and the revenue-sharing law. Talabani said there were lingering fears Kurds will again be deprived of funds and investment.
"We want to create an automatic payment mechanism where it doesn't rely on the goodwill of the finance minister or the oil minister for the regions to get their fair share," he said.
"Trust is lacking in Iraq, and unfortunately it's been Iraq's miserable history that has created this system, this society that mistrusts each other, which is why something as critical as oil can be a trust-building measure," Talabani said. "By putting in place mechanisms and institutions that can ensure that I will not get robbed again, that my resources will not be used against me again, will eventually over time build my trust."
Affecting me? Naw, I’m just bored easily...
Turkey should like the Kurds getting their own place because they can all return home and out of Turkey and Iran.
Then change the channel and let the people in charge figure it out. There are plenty of other TV shows for you to watch ;-)
Much better theater...
Okay.
Am I on Candid Camera?
How come all the brilliant FReepers suddenly showed up on MY thread???
You F with our country, not only will we track you, personally, down and kill your worthless butt, and as many of your equally worthless kin as that mission takes, but your entire country and/or those that supported you will simply cease to exist.
Afghanistan should have been fragmented along ethnic lines into mutually warring pissant regions, and the same fate should have befallen Iraq.
Turkey, who wouldn't allow us to stage on their turf would be rewarded with a hostile Kurdistan on their border...
Look closely just above and to the left of your monitor.
SMILE!
Your premise is faulty, which leaves you limited conclusions.
The Kurds will support oil sharing, they just don’t want it to be tied to a national oil company. As conservatives, we should all oppose a national oil company. But the central government could claim royalties from all oil, and then distribute those royalties throughout the nation in a fair way not tied to where the oil fields are.
Like Alaska gives royalties to all alaskans, not based on whether they live in the provinces where the oil is being extracted.
Overall, your post makes perfect sense. Hindsight and all that...
But -- I don't get the part about "but your entire country ... will simply cease to exist." I mean, they don't have a country. We are not fighting any nation that I know of. We are not at war with Iraq, we are not at war with Afghanistan. This is the ugly advantage that Al Qaeda has over us. They are active in nations all over the world. Sixty at last count.
But we MUST keep in mind that Iraq is the "central battlefield in the war on terror" -- because Al Qaeda chose that battlefield. They have to travel there from other countries in order to fight with us. We have to hope they continue to show up -- so we have someone to fight with and can inflict some casualties on them.
No doubt about it. But I have been waiting for this shoe to drop. Cheney was there this weekend rubbing their noses in the absolute necessity for the Iraq Parliament to immediately sign the oil revenue sharing bill. (Remember, they announced, with much fanfare last week, that the bill was drafted and finally ready to sign -- before they all take a 2-month vacation in Paris.)
The Kurds will support oil sharing, they just don’t want it to be tied to a national oil company. As conservatives, we should all oppose a national oil company. But the central government could claim royalties from all oil, and then distribute those royalties throughout the nation in a fair way not tied to where the oil fields are.
From your mouth to god's ear, Sir. The article above definitively states that they will not share their oil revenues with the rest of Iraq. Perhaps -- after 100 years or so of contentious negotiations -- they might consider paying some royalties. (You know how stubborn those Arabs can be.)
Like Alaska gives royalties to all alaskans, not based on whether they live in the provinces where the oil is being extracted.
Why didn't anyone TELL me that people who live in Alaska get oil royalties in their bank accounts because they live there??? Jeesh. I could have been "living" in Alaska and getting free money all this time.
But -- I don't get the part about "but your entire country ... will simply cease to exist."
Words and names have meaning and symbolic power all their own.
There are still countries named Afghanistan and Iraq. They still have the same physical territories and peoples. The Taliban will alway be a part of Afghan history books, Saddam Hussein will always be a part of Iraqi history books.
When those countries are replaced by new countries with people regarding themselves as something other than Afghanis or Iraqis the defeat of the Taliban and Saddam will be complete.
Nothing in this prevents Kurdistan, Sunnistan, and Shiiastan from continuing to act as Roach Hotels for jihadist, each fighting against those who just aren't Islamist enough.
Nice guy that I am, I'm even willing to arm all sides and keep them stirred up until they break their own and each other's wills to fight.
What you said is what should happen, but I doubt that’s what’s going to happen. Like hunter112, I see a pan-Islamic war shaping up. It’s been a long-time coming, and all the elements are there: ancient tribal rivalries and religious animosities, a power vacuum, an emotional, largly uneducated and easily manipulated populace and billions in oil wealth for the victors. If the surge doesn’t work, and if the Iraqi government doesn’t get its act together real quick, buckle your seatbelts.
Before any Iraq oil is nationalized, they need to find that 100,000 to 300,000 barrels per day. Even Mexico is not that corrupt.
Me too.
Want some popcorn?
Okay. You make a lot of sense.
None of your proposals are even remotely acceptable. An autonomous Kurdisatan may be the best outcome available.
LOL, RightWhale. I've been avoiding that story for a week. Just because I know it will make me smack my forehead with utter frustration.
You've got that right. The FReepers on this thread set me straight.
An autonomous Kurdisatan
Good grief! I should use spell check. That one’s kind of weird.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.