Posted on 05/20/2007 4:01:20 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The next U.S. president could reshape the Supreme Court, where the two oldest members are liberals and volatile decisions like abortion now hinge on a single swing vote.
The possible sea change has already surfaced 18 months before the November 2008 election and could develop into a major campaign issue for Democrats who want to move the court to the left and Republicans who hope to plant it firmly in the conservative camp.
The U.S. high court is now evenly split between conservative and liberal justices, who have been divided by 5-4 votes on abortion rights, the death penalty and the environment.
Duke University law professor Erwin Chemerinsky predicts the next president probably will get two or three Supreme Court appointments. "They will determine the results in countless issues, like abortion rights," he said.
Supreme Court justices have lifetime tenure, and no one knows when the next vacancy will occur.
But the court's oldest members are liberal Justices John Paul Stevens, 87, and Ruth Bader Ginsburg, 74. The court's other two liberals are Justices David Souter and Stephen Breyer.
The swing vote belongs to Justice Anthony Kennedy, a moderate conservative. He has cast the decisive vote for abortion restrictions and for the death penalty, but against the Bush administration on global warming and on military tribunals for Guantanamo prisoners.
The shift in the court, so influential in arbitrating U.S. social and other policies, occurred after President George W. Bush's appointment of conservative Justice Samuel Alito. He replaced the more moderate Justice Sandra Day O'Connor, who resigned.
Bush also named Chief Justice John Roberts, who replaced another conservative, the late Chief Justice William Rehnquist. Conservatives hope Roberts will lead the court to the right over the long term.
HIGH-STAKES ABORTION BATTLE
A Washington lawyer who closely tracks the high court says the decisions on major social issues like abortion, affirmative action, gay rights and the death penalty will likely motivate voters more in this upcoming election than in the past.
"Interest in the court will be even higher given its recent turn further to the right," said attorney Tom Goldstein.
Abortion is already a campaign issue, with the top Republican presidential contenders supporting last month's Supreme Court ruling that banned certain kinds of abortions while leading Democratic candidates denounced it.
"This decision by the Supreme Court is actually a perfect example of what will be at stake in this election," former Sen. John Edwards said at the first Democratic debate.
Democratic Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York sent an e-mail to supporters saying the ruling "raised the stakes even higher" in terms of the importance of the election.
For Republicans, former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani has struggled in the past few weeks to explain his position on abortion and the Supreme Court's landmark Roe v. Wade decision in 1973 that women have a constitutional right to an abortion.
"I ultimately do believe in a woman's right of choice, but I think that there are ways in which we can reduce abortions," Giuliani said at the second Republican debate
His support for abortion rights contrasts with his main rivals, Sen. John McCain of Arizona and Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. Conservatives view overturning the abortion ruling and judicial appointments as key election issues.
Theodore Olson, formerly the Bush administration's chief advocate before the Supreme Court and a colleague of Giuliani's in the Reagan administration Justice Department, sought to reassure conservatives about the former U.S. attorney.
Olson wrote in a recent article in the National Review that Giuliani would appoint jurists in the mold of the Supreme Court's four conservatives -- Roberts and Alito and Justices Antonin Scalia and Clarence Thomas.
WOT, abortion, Illegal Immigration, gun control, and China will be the big issues.
There is only one guy who is fit for the task. Duncan Hunter 08
I disagree, my team is Fred Thompson/John Bolton 2008
I think Hunter has more expertise on the military than an entire cabinet that Fred could assemble.
“I think illegal immigration will trump everything in 2008.”
Now it will, or now it won’t. Will our opposition keep this issue alive, or will our overlords jus put a great big stick in our eye, and therefore cause power to be handed to Hillary and Co,.? And let our children do the house cleaning, a generation hence?
As it did in 2006. I disagree with the supposition that it was Iraq. People stayed home because amnesty made them realized they really had no voice. The voice belonged to those illegals in the streets demanding rights where they had no entitlement. If Amnesty passes, the Republican Party will be dead through their own doing. There will be more people in the middle of both parties that will sit home. With the massive change in the country that Amnesty will bring with it--what difference does it make who is on Supreme Court?
” agree that abortion and the Supreme Court will be important next year, but I think illegal immigration will trump everything in 2008”
Correct!
I think Hunter has more expertise on the military than an entire cabinet that Fred could assemble.
Touche!
People always say the Supreme Court is important. Remember Al Gore’s prediction of 3 vacancies in 2000?
Well, that was 3 more than actually happened.
Conservatives have the upper hand, though. All our justices are young. Stevens and Ginsberg are aging and ill, and Souter hates Washington.
I’m guessing on 2 vacancies next term if its a Republican, which puts it on part with 1984/1988/1992/2004 Presidential terms. Important, yeah, but not moreso than the norm. We certainly aren’t seeing 1968 material with 4 vacancies in a single term (though 1 of those was already vacant before the election).
Please FreepMail me if you want on or off my Pro-Life Ping List.
.
Agree with you and Disagree 100% with the premise of the story.
Every 4 years MSM and liberals wail about how important the court is and how abortion rights will disappear, etc.
And every 4 years voters prove them dead wrong by voting on economic issues (or in 2006, anti-war votes).
In 2008 it will be “the economy stupid” or Iraq or immigration. Abortion and SCOTUS will be about 20 items down for everyone except the most fanatical.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.