Posted on 06/14/2007 6:16:04 AM PDT by radar101
Yesterday, a GOP aide, who is one of my sources in the Senate, gave me the rundown on what's happening with the Senate immigration bill (this is the same person who I talked to last week about the bill).
First off, it does look like the Senate immigration bill is coming back. The conventional wisdom seems to be that it's going to be brought up right before the July 4th break, so that the Senate Republican leadership can try to use that as leverage to get votes (in other words, "vote for the bill or we'll have to waste your vacation time until you do").
This is despite the fact that the conservative leaders of the anti-amnesty movement are refusing to cooperate, and won't give Mitch McConnell a list of amendments that they want considered. My source tells me that the reason for this is that the game has now been rigged. McConnell is essentially promising to bring the amendments up in exchange for cloture votes, but he's publicly saying that they will strip any problematic amendments out in committee.
In other words, if the bill gets through the Senate and the House, the Democrats and the open borders Republicans will work together when the bills have to be reconciled in committee to strip out any amendments that the "grand bargainers" don't like. Therefore, at this point, it doesn't matter what amendments pass, because any tough enforcement provisions that slip through will be rendered toothless when the bills are reconciled.
My source also noted that the cloture vote to end debate will be the "real" vote on the bill because if debate is closed off, the bill is sure to pass. Then, what will happen is that the votes for the bill will be counted, and a few Senators who are afraid that their election prospects will be jeopardized by a "yes" vote, will be allowed to vote against the bill. This enables those Senators to tell their constituents that they voted against the bill, but it will still allow them to collect campaign contributions from lobbyists who have a better understanding of how things work, and know that the bill couldn't have been passed without their support. Put another way, they get to reap the rewards of supporting amnesty while telling the voters in their home states that they opposed the bill.
My source also let me know that the White House and the Senate leadership, and Trent Lott in particular, are pushing very hard for this bill.
I asked my source to speculate on why Lott was pushing so hard, and he said that Lott may be naive enough to think that this bill might help John McCain's presidential campaign. He told me that despite McCain's dip in the polls since the bill hit the news, it was hard to miss the fact that the biggest supporters of this bill in the Senate, Jon Kyl, Trent Lott, and Lindsey Graham, are all solidly behind McCain in '08.
Before we finished up, I asked my source what he thought the prospects of passage were. He stated that it was a toss up, but that the pro-amnesty side had the momentum. I asked how that could possibly be given the outpouring of anger against this bill, and he told me that a lot of moderates were afraid of being called racists by people like Michael Chertoff, Luis Gutierrez, and Fred Barnes. He also noted that the Senate has a very insulated, clubhouse like atmosphere, and that a lot of these pro-amnesty Senators seem to be more worried about getting the President or Trent Lott mad at them than enraging the voters in their states. In addition, he told me that he thinks a lot of these Senators have "drunk the DC Kool-Aid", and believe that they're better off passing a bad bill, even one that won't ultimately become law if, as expected, the House kills it, so that they can at least tell the voters in 2008 that they did something about immigration.
PS #1: I asked my source what his boss thought the fallout from this bill would be. He advised me that his boss, and some of his boss's conservative colleagues in the Senate, believe that this bill could gin up so much outrage on the right that it could lead to the GOP having an even worse year in 2008 than they did in 2006. As is, conservatives are disillusioned and unmotivated, and he thinks this bill will make things much worse if it passes the Senate.
PS #2: Another question I had for my source was whether he thought Harry Reid wanted this bill to pass. He replied that he thought Rush Limbaugh was right, and that Harry Reid would prefer to see this bill go away. As evidence for that, he pointed to Reid bringing Byron Dorgan's killer Amendment back three times. He also said that if Reid had really wanted the bill to pass, he would have kept it on the floor for another 2-3 days. At this point though, he said that Reid is probably content to let it come back because after the President's high profile lobbying, he can pin the blame for the bill on Republicans.
I just sent you a private reply.
Yellow stars, how appropriate.
” ...leverage to get votes (in other words, “vote for the bill or we’ll have to waste your vacation time until you do”).”
This should incense every American, that they can force a Senator to vote ‘their way’ so the Senators can go off on vacation. Senators have many extended breaks during the year that your typical office worker can only dream of; they take long weekends at home. They can give up one holiday and get the thing done right.
Let them stay in DC through the Fourth of July, there’s a nice Independence Day festival on the Mall they can go to .. fireworks, even ;)
The sense I’m getting is that Red and Blue don’t matter anymore. Elections are so close anyway, that as long as we can divide the population evenly, the parties can take turns stealing elections from each other.
Almost like the late stages of the cold war. There were as many people in the CIA working with the Soviets, and vice versa. The Cold War became a sort of industry.
...wondering if one could live out the remainder of days in Scotland?
Thanks, I did forget he’s the world’s only living spine donor.
Can you find out why Inhofe’s office and people aren’t bringing attention to his ENFORCE bill?
Here you go, a representative sample. Be sure to check the bona fides of each group (use Google) to see the power and money that's behind Shamnesty, behind Congress, and behind George W Bush.
Apologies to those seeing this for the 5th time.
The American Meat Institute ran this ad in Congressional Quarterly last year (AMI members including Hormel, Tyson, Cargill, and several hundred other companies process 70 percent of America's annual meat output). Regarding immigration Amnesty, the "trade associations" are allied with many powerful unions and immgration "advocacy" groups.
This list is representative, and by no means all-inclusive of the hundreds of groups supporting immigration Amnesty.
"Though no one wants to reward illegal behavior, we must find a way for these workers to come forward, make good on the past and participate in a program that leads to permanent residency and eventual citizenship."
http://www.meatami.com/1CQImmigrationAd030206.pdf
The Rogues Gallery Of Co-Signatories To The Above Statement:
That's one approach. Certainly there will be huge buck$ for immigration lawyers and document forgers.
Call your entire state's House delegation, regardless of district or party. One by one.
Ironically my state GOP suggested this when I told them I was going to change to Independent registration.
It was OK, I discovered that 80 percent of our Congressional reps were dead set against Shamnesty.
That was three weeks ago, might be time to do it again.
You are not going to get me to disagree with your statement.
..but I called mine specifically because I know someone on the 'inside'.....just needed to talk.
They are trying to make it see the light of day and having no success. Cannot get Judiciary to hear the bill. That’s why I kept asking people to call to have the Inhofe bill heard in Judiciary but the President and his henchman Rove don’t want to even know about it and have helped bury it.
Maybe we should do another thread and get people to call and demand his bill be heard in Judiciary. What do you think?
Thanks for that list! Disgusting!
CAn't hurt, if its okay to post. I'll help you bump it. Here's a ref.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1837422/posts
Common Sense 'ENFORCE ACT' introduced By Sen. Inhofe
Our OK Reps are all against it and have been told if it passes the Senate it is DOA in the House. Even the Dem is opposing the bill I was told by his office. That makes two Senators and five Reps against this travesty of a bill from Oklahoma! We are doing our part and in fact, the Inhofe bill ENFORCE has been unable to get heard in Judiciary. We need everyone calling their Senators and demanding that the Inhofe Bill ENFORCE see the light of day!
I don’t like to encourage it, since we’re not finished yet.
However....
We bought a house in SE Asia a couple years ago.
My neice loved Ecuador, she didn’t want to return after teaching there for a year (I said Uruguay earlier, meant Ecuador). She was down in Cuenca, nice climate.
Anyway, it’s called “migration jujutsu”. They come, we leave.
I would go and I am in Ohio. This hole thing really sucks!
SCREW YOU RINO’S AND ELITES! SCREW YOU!
That's the entire point. There is literally no other reason.
We might as well try. We need calls to get this bill heard and out of Committee so there are two competing bills. Think I will go find out who is on Judiciary and post their information with the thread. Will take me awhile but will get it up as quick as possible.
BTW, Sen Coburn had surgery and won’t be back in the Senate until the end of June according to a news release. This vote cannot be taken until he gets back IMHO.
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