Posted on 06/14/2007 6:16:04 AM PDT by radar101
Yesterday, a GOP aide, who is one of my sources in the Senate, gave me the rundown on what's happening with the Senate immigration bill (this is the same person who I talked to last week about the bill).
First off, it does look like the Senate immigration bill is coming back. The conventional wisdom seems to be that it's going to be brought up right before the July 4th break, so that the Senate Republican leadership can try to use that as leverage to get votes (in other words, "vote for the bill or we'll have to waste your vacation time until you do").
This is despite the fact that the conservative leaders of the anti-amnesty movement are refusing to cooperate, and won't give Mitch McConnell a list of amendments that they want considered. My source tells me that the reason for this is that the game has now been rigged. McConnell is essentially promising to bring the amendments up in exchange for cloture votes, but he's publicly saying that they will strip any problematic amendments out in committee.
In other words, if the bill gets through the Senate and the House, the Democrats and the open borders Republicans will work together when the bills have to be reconciled in committee to strip out any amendments that the "grand bargainers" don't like. Therefore, at this point, it doesn't matter what amendments pass, because any tough enforcement provisions that slip through will be rendered toothless when the bills are reconciled.
My source also noted that the cloture vote to end debate will be the "real" vote on the bill because if debate is closed off, the bill is sure to pass. Then, what will happen is that the votes for the bill will be counted, and a few Senators who are afraid that their election prospects will be jeopardized by a "yes" vote, will be allowed to vote against the bill. This enables those Senators to tell their constituents that they voted against the bill, but it will still allow them to collect campaign contributions from lobbyists who have a better understanding of how things work, and know that the bill couldn't have been passed without their support. Put another way, they get to reap the rewards of supporting amnesty while telling the voters in their home states that they opposed the bill.
My source also let me know that the White House and the Senate leadership, and Trent Lott in particular, are pushing very hard for this bill.
I asked my source to speculate on why Lott was pushing so hard, and he said that Lott may be naive enough to think that this bill might help John McCain's presidential campaign. He told me that despite McCain's dip in the polls since the bill hit the news, it was hard to miss the fact that the biggest supporters of this bill in the Senate, Jon Kyl, Trent Lott, and Lindsey Graham, are all solidly behind McCain in '08.
Before we finished up, I asked my source what he thought the prospects of passage were. He stated that it was a toss up, but that the pro-amnesty side had the momentum. I asked how that could possibly be given the outpouring of anger against this bill, and he told me that a lot of moderates were afraid of being called racists by people like Michael Chertoff, Luis Gutierrez, and Fred Barnes. He also noted that the Senate has a very insulated, clubhouse like atmosphere, and that a lot of these pro-amnesty Senators seem to be more worried about getting the President or Trent Lott mad at them than enraging the voters in their states. In addition, he told me that he thinks a lot of these Senators have "drunk the DC Kool-Aid", and believe that they're better off passing a bad bill, even one that won't ultimately become law if, as expected, the House kills it, so that they can at least tell the voters in 2008 that they did something about immigration.
PS #1: I asked my source what his boss thought the fallout from this bill would be. He advised me that his boss, and some of his boss's conservative colleagues in the Senate, believe that this bill could gin up so much outrage on the right that it could lead to the GOP having an even worse year in 2008 than they did in 2006. As is, conservatives are disillusioned and unmotivated, and he thinks this bill will make things much worse if it passes the Senate.
PS #2: Another question I had for my source was whether he thought Harry Reid wanted this bill to pass. He replied that he thought Rush Limbaugh was right, and that Harry Reid would prefer to see this bill go away. As evidence for that, he pointed to Reid bringing Byron Dorgan's killer Amendment back three times. He also said that if Reid had really wanted the bill to pass, he would have kept it on the floor for another 2-3 days. At this point though, he said that Reid is probably content to let it come back because after the President's high profile lobbying, he can pin the blame for the bill on Republicans.
...but I am.
I’m with you...we don’t have a party anymore.
Would 250,000 people on the Mall with “Security First” signs make a difference? It might get their attention since it couldn’t be ignored. Could we do it? We haven’t been able to in the past but this time seems different. I’d go (although I am in Maryland so that’s easy for me to say).
Thanks, I’ll try that
I was on a conference call yesterday and found out this bill will lessen border security not stregthen it and I find that reprehensible. There is no building a real fence first with the reality fence to accompany so every last inch of the fence can be monitored and the INS can send people immediately to where there is a problem. There is also no check on who leaves the Country even though that was to be put in place in 1996. With this bill law enforcement cannot be notified.
It is a travesty and needs stopped. For those of you on here that got mad when a lot of us thought it was time for Lott to go in total, hope you are happy. We got Frist instead of Lott thanks to a backroom deal orchestrated by Frist fellow Senator from TN at the time who undermined Senator Nickles from OK who should have replaced Lott as the #2 man in the Senate. Don Nickles was someone who had a backbone. Instead we got Frist who was also spineless just like Lott and managed to get him as #2 before leaving the Senate. If Frist told me 2+2 = 4, I would have to use my calculator to verify.
I would bet we would not have lost the Senate with Don Nickles in charge because he was like Jim Inhofe and not afraid to say what was on his mind. Nothing timid about Nickles and he would have taken it to the DemocRATs. We are in this mess because we have had too many Senators try to make nice with the DemocRATs to get something past and in the meantime we lost the Majority because Frist wouldn’t stand up. It started with Clinton, Impeachment, Chinagate, etc. They caved to Clinton every time. Now the spineless Senators are at it again.
This Immigration Bill isn’t just hated by Republicans but by Independents and a lot of Dems so what is the stupid Senate doing even bringing the bill back?
When Clinton was President, Lott went to budget negotiations at the WH without Don Nickles so he could sell out knowing full well Nickles would have come out of a meeting and told the truth. Now Lott is back in power and running this bill for the President — disgusting!
I am with a campaign and one good reason I went there is that there are no Trent Lotts, Bill Frists, Karl Roves, etc. anywhere near the campaign. I learned recently from my sources in the Senate and House that Rove, et al are pushing this bill in the Senate and I want him gone from the political scene and his cronies — he did enough damage in 2006. The way he is going you would think he wants to see Hillary in the WH along with some others. Why? So Jeb can run in 2012? Any major players from any Bush campaign, I want their candidate defeated even if that person was my favorite I would jump ship rather than help put this bunch get near the WH again.
My more than two cents!
The entire state of Mississippi should feel the shame caused by Lott....Why is he still there?
I live the shame of the Perry / Dewhurst team here in Texas.... Why is Perry and Dewhurst still running Texas?
Some issues defy logic........
bttt
all: feel free to cut & paste any elements of my recent email to the White House:
Although I have little hope that anyone in the administration seems to be taking note, I will continue to “vote” my displeasure (a mild word indeed) regarding how the administration is choosing to push an intellectually and politically bankrupt approach to immigration “reform”.
The approach is also morally bankrupt in that it lies about the realities of the illegal immigration situation, lies about the abject failures of the administration and Congress to address it since 9/11, and lies about the true nature of the objections being raised by millions of Americans. We are not nativist yahoos or racist rednecks, nor are we ignorant sheep who would “support the bill if we simply knew the details” (cf. Mr. Snow).
No, we are people who are opposed PRECISELY because we know the details, and we are deeply offended at the mischaracterizations of the bill’s opponents made by the administration.
The administration is still whistling in the dark, seemingly willfully ignorant of the lasting, indeed catastrophic, damage being done to its credibility among the American people.
Once John Kerry, Hanoi Jane and bill clinton were allowed to aid the enemy during the Vietnam years, treason became politically fashionable and very profitable. Forty years of fashionable treason has allowed most of the politicians to be bought. In turn, these politicians have appointed the judiciary, who ignore the constitution and rule in favor of the Corporate Royals who have bought the country. They own the Congress, they own the courts, they own law enforcement and they own the military. How are we supposed to stop them?
It's time for the whole d*mn bunch to go. We need a complete turnover so now one stays long enough to learn the trick.
If we're serious, it's doable.
Summer....vacations....4th of July.
With `shirt-tail relatives’ included, 50 million new “citizens”, all spanish speaking & illiterate, most requiring medical services, food stamps, shelter, education, etc.
If you saw Dobbs last night with La Raza’s mouth-piece, he kept asking her tough but fair questions and each time her eyes would glaze over and she would parrot, “Comprehensive immmigration, bueno,”. In other words, she knows it’s a sell-out, Dobbs knows it, we know, the illegals know, the Congress knows . . .
This will be largest expansion of the welfare state since FDR’s “New Deal”, with the expense put squarely on the backs of the middle class.
bump
Like that idea. For those of us who are finding it difficult to contact their rep. (not answering phones, email full to capacity, etc.) call the local news channels!!! Have them contact reps for us. Ask why they are not accessible to the folks??
I think it would be very unwise to
a - Assume amnesty would fail in the House after Senate passage,
b - Consider this episode in terms of 'good' or 'bad' for one or the other political party, and
c - Even entertain the notion that congress is capable of presenting a bill so absolutely bad that the current president would fail to sign it.
So long as 'reform' is somewhere in the title, he'll sign just about anything that comes along. Anything, that is, that allows his compadres to stay where they are and allows future administrations to carry on with our traditional lack of enforcement.
When it starts to smell too bad, in twenty years or so, they can do it again - just like they are doing now.
Assume amnesty would fail in the House after Senate passage,
We keep hearing in the media lately that House passage is "extremely unlikely" but I don't buy it. With the democrats in charge they can ram through anything they want.
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