Posted on 06/14/2007 6:16:04 AM PDT by radar101
Yesterday, a GOP aide, who is one of my sources in the Senate, gave me the rundown on what's happening with the Senate immigration bill (this is the same person who I talked to last week about the bill).
First off, it does look like the Senate immigration bill is coming back. The conventional wisdom seems to be that it's going to be brought up right before the July 4th break, so that the Senate Republican leadership can try to use that as leverage to get votes (in other words, "vote for the bill or we'll have to waste your vacation time until you do").
This is despite the fact that the conservative leaders of the anti-amnesty movement are refusing to cooperate, and won't give Mitch McConnell a list of amendments that they want considered. My source tells me that the reason for this is that the game has now been rigged. McConnell is essentially promising to bring the amendments up in exchange for cloture votes, but he's publicly saying that they will strip any problematic amendments out in committee.
In other words, if the bill gets through the Senate and the House, the Democrats and the open borders Republicans will work together when the bills have to be reconciled in committee to strip out any amendments that the "grand bargainers" don't like. Therefore, at this point, it doesn't matter what amendments pass, because any tough enforcement provisions that slip through will be rendered toothless when the bills are reconciled.
My source also noted that the cloture vote to end debate will be the "real" vote on the bill because if debate is closed off, the bill is sure to pass. Then, what will happen is that the votes for the bill will be counted, and a few Senators who are afraid that their election prospects will be jeopardized by a "yes" vote, will be allowed to vote against the bill. This enables those Senators to tell their constituents that they voted against the bill, but it will still allow them to collect campaign contributions from lobbyists who have a better understanding of how things work, and know that the bill couldn't have been passed without their support. Put another way, they get to reap the rewards of supporting amnesty while telling the voters in their home states that they opposed the bill.
My source also let me know that the White House and the Senate leadership, and Trent Lott in particular, are pushing very hard for this bill.
I asked my source to speculate on why Lott was pushing so hard, and he said that Lott may be naive enough to think that this bill might help John McCain's presidential campaign. He told me that despite McCain's dip in the polls since the bill hit the news, it was hard to miss the fact that the biggest supporters of this bill in the Senate, Jon Kyl, Trent Lott, and Lindsey Graham, are all solidly behind McCain in '08.
Before we finished up, I asked my source what he thought the prospects of passage were. He stated that it was a toss up, but that the pro-amnesty side had the momentum. I asked how that could possibly be given the outpouring of anger against this bill, and he told me that a lot of moderates were afraid of being called racists by people like Michael Chertoff, Luis Gutierrez, and Fred Barnes. He also noted that the Senate has a very insulated, clubhouse like atmosphere, and that a lot of these pro-amnesty Senators seem to be more worried about getting the President or Trent Lott mad at them than enraging the voters in their states. In addition, he told me that he thinks a lot of these Senators have "drunk the DC Kool-Aid", and believe that they're better off passing a bad bill, even one that won't ultimately become law if, as expected, the House kills it, so that they can at least tell the voters in 2008 that they did something about immigration.
PS #1: I asked my source what his boss thought the fallout from this bill would be. He advised me that his boss, and some of his boss's conservative colleagues in the Senate, believe that this bill could gin up so much outrage on the right that it could lead to the GOP having an even worse year in 2008 than they did in 2006. As is, conservatives are disillusioned and unmotivated, and he thinks this bill will make things much worse if it passes the Senate.
PS #2: Another question I had for my source was whether he thought Harry Reid wanted this bill to pass. He replied that he thought Rush Limbaugh was right, and that Harry Reid would prefer to see this bill go away. As evidence for that, he pointed to Reid bringing Byron Dorgan's killer Amendment back three times. He also said that if Reid had really wanted the bill to pass, he would have kept it on the floor for another 2-3 days. At this point though, he said that Reid is probably content to let it come back because after the President's high profile lobbying, he can pin the blame for the bill on Republicans.
Tell your source this won't work. I'm ready to throw the baby out with the bath on this one, starting with the minority leaders.
This is the only issue that matters to me now.
Both Fred Barnes and Wm. Krystol (sp?) from the 'Weekly Standard' are LIBERAL on immigration! They both love this bill and don't forget that Krystol was once a big McCain guy.
Me thinks he still is.
Because of a confluence of special interests like the US Chamber of Commerce, labor unions, and La Raza. Make no mistake about this, this bill is more of a Dem bill than a Rep bill. Both parties have been guilty of not enforcing our laws and not securing our borders. They can make the problem go away by declaring the illegals legal with the stroke of a pen. They are counting on the ignorance and short attention span of the American public to make this a non-issue for 2008. And they will be aided by the MSM who will trumpet this as a great success and a demonstration of bipartisanship to solve a difficult problem.
If you look at the vote in 2006 on the Senate bill,S 2611 you will see that the following senators voted for it: Robert Bennett, Sam Brownback, Norm Coleman, Susan Collins, Larry Craig, Mike DeWine, Pete Domenici, Lindsey Graham, Judd Gregg, Chuck Hagel, Richard Lugar, Mel Martinez, John McCain, Mitch McConnell, Lisa Murkowski, Gordon Smith, Olympia Snowe, Arlen Specter, Ted Stevens, George Voinovich, and John Warner.
Kyl, Isakson, Chambliss, and Lott voted against it, but they will vote for it this time. This would garner a majority of Reps for the bill if a vote is taken. The Dems want Rep cover for passage. The Dems will vote overwhelmingly for the bill and a slim Rep majority will make the bill truly bipartisan.
The fig leaf the Reps for the bill want is that the amendment process be followed so that all Rep objections can be heard [and defeated]. I am sure that some are getting cold feet because of the public outcry, which is why there will probably be some strengthening of the enforcement portion of the bill.
The bottom line is that the bill is not dead in the Senate and that there is plenty of negotiating going on behind the scenes. I still say that if this bill comes up for a vote, it will pass easily. It is the optics that concern the Rep senate leadership. Some changes must be made to make the bill palatable to the Reps in favor of the bill but not unravel the grand bargain. The fix is in as far as the Senate is concerned.
The only fly in the ointment is that you can't spin reality. As the problem metastasizes around the country, there has been a tremendous grassroots effort in states and local communities to address this problem, which is growing daily. The bill will undercut many of these efforts because the illegals are no longer illegal. They will have legal status, which will exacerbate the problem as they bring in their children, spouses, and parents.
The administration of this bill will be a bureaucratic nightmare, which is why much of it is being pushed down the road after the 2008 election. There are just not enough USG personnel to handle the workload. The chickens won't come home to roost until later and the politicians will be expressing phony outrage and passing more bills, more than likely gutting the Dem concessions to the Reps on the bill. The political elites can only keep this charade going so long. The public can see what is happening in their daily lives and no amount of rhetoric is going to change that reality. Eventually, there will be a huge backlash. The question is, "Will it be too late?"
There is no chance of a North American Union.
We know this to be truth because Michael Medved keeps telling us there is no visible movement, no leaders.
I’m not saying there is or is not an conscious, subversive movement to implement a NAU. But Medved’s reasoning is absurd.
I suppose he’d deny the existence of wind because he cannot see it, despite the debris that is blowing about.
Pass this bill and the GOP is dead.
No ifs ands or buts.
I got through to Cornyn’s office this AM and left my comment. The staffer said he is getting 1000-1500 calls a day, most all are against this bill. I asked the staffer to pass a message off the KBH since I cannot get through to her office and she is the one who needs the reminder of how we want her to vote. Seems she is not answering the phone.
I am starting to worry they will get this pushed through no matter what we do and come election time people will backwater and re-elect these dregs when faced with the “oooh we can’t sit out that puts the Dims in charge”. I’d rather fight the opposition as a minority than fight the traitors from within the party.
Of course after this passes we’ll be a permanent minority. Well, time to start calling my Rep and bend his ear for the next few months over this. Maybe our hope lies in the house.
Some national organization such as the VFW or the American Legion would, IMO, be the ideal, non-political entity to get this rolling.
“Pass this bill and the GOP is dead.”
Pass this bill and the United States of America is dead.
Normally we entrust our elected officials to deal with the ugly process of “making sausage” in Congress. And we expect them to represent our interests while doing that.
This time the process has spilled into the public arena, and we are beginning to see exactly how deceitful and underhanded it really is.
And in this instance we are seeing that the deceitful strategems and plots of lawmaking are not arrayed against opponents on the Hill, but against us, the [gullible, naive, clueless, impotent] American voting public.
This started as and will remain a direct struggle of the American voter against our own elected representatives, the national business associations, and their K Street political whores.
It’s clear that Congress and President now realize they’re in a direct assault against us, and they will do anything to win, no matter how transparent, ruthless, unethical, or destructive.
We are witnessing an unprecedented exercise of corrupt and ruthless political power being exercised against the average American citizen, without any restraint or shame whatsoever.
Our founders warned us of this 230 years ago. They were not kidding.
I agree with you kabar, but we still have a few chances to kill it.
I got through to Hutchison’s office, actually talked to a live person. I can’t get through to Cornyn’s office, I’ve tried faxing and calling....non of his phones are taking calls and I can’t even leave a message.
I wonder how many people realize that if this bill gets passed into law...in it’s gutted form, just what effect it will have on the well being of the US as a nation.
How can Bush pontificate about the importance of a WOT when 6000+ people a week are strolling across our borders?
Do the republicans REALLY think the majority of these freshly minted “citizens” who hold Z visas will vote Republican?
Without border security...and strict workplace enforcement, what is to stop the dirtbag employers (tax cheats) who hire illegals now....from firing all their newly made “citizens”...and just go out and hire MORE illegals?
If this bill is passed, if you really think about it, it will bankrupt our country. We can all expect to be in the 60% income tax bracket within a relatively short period of time. We will be FORCED into socialism, regardless who’s ass resides in the oval office next. The numbers just don’t add up. This has been mulled over, talked about, written about now for well over a year. This will put such an unbelievable burden on the back of the taxpayer that we’ll likely not recover from it.
I’m purposely avoiding the hot button topics of what the social and cultural ramifications will be...as I’m sure there are more than a few closet liberals this BB who will jump out and call me a bigot.
The disastrous effect on the average Americans wallet if this bill is passed is reason enough to shit-can it and have some honest discussions about what needs to be done.
It explicitly spells out their 'end run' game....
My question.
What do we do?
What can we do?
The letters, phone calls, emails, fax....are fine and useful...
..but 'they' seem to have an agenda and will enforce it.
Is a 'march on Washington'... possible?
...workable?....
...make a difference?
..too late?
The Republicans are to blame for the new MexAmeriCanada. Kiss the United States of America good-bye.
PRICKS! Brought down from within. Nice job, @holes. Rot in Hell!
Socialism 101 says this is a new day! Libs and New World Republicans got just what they wanted on the fast track, much faster than I ever thought.
Now, what is the next move that AMERICANS can take to make this much more difficult?
Nope. They warned us about this sort of tyranny time and time again. They never stopped thinking about it. And they gave us tools to stop it.
Try 202-224-2934 you get a recording if it is busy, just hang up and keep trying!
If this bill passes, this won't be the same country in 20 years. The political levers of power will be in the control of the Open Border types and will be used against us.
Here are :Bureau of the Census population projections based on current data. By 2030, Hispanics will constitute 20% of the population.
If this bill passes, those projections will be increased significantly because of chain migration, which will allow the relatives of illegals to come to the US legally, i.e., family reunification.
Thank you!
I think you're absolutely right. All we can do right now is spread the word, call - call - call, AND PRAY!!
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