The Significance Of Romney's "Ocean"

Townhall.com ^ | July 16, 2007 | Hugh Hewitt

[RightPhalanx]

Politico's Jonathan Martin reports on Mitt Romney's newest campaign commercial, "Ocean."  The new ad comes amid many reports of how much money Romney and all the other campaigns are spending.  The breathlessness of the reporting doesn't allow the key questions to be asked: "What are the candidates getting for their dollars?" and "Is the campaign hitting its targets in contributions and expenditures?"  In Romney's case we know he's patiently built a small lead in Iowa and New Hampshire, and from "Ocean" we get evidence that he's implementing a new step in a carefully conceived plan and doing so with the sort of innovative appeal that those who have observed his business life expected from the first day of the campaign.

"Ocean" is interesting on a number of levels.  First, its substance --a concern for the degraded culture in which American children grow up-- is powerful, and not just for Republican primary voters, but for all parents and people who love kids.  Second, its visual approach is unique for the cycle.  Over the decades the presidential television spot has become more and more direct, and less and less interesting.  "Ocean's" got a chance at being memorable in the way very very few ads turn out to be.  Finally, the ad reminds people that among Romney's achievements is a wonderful family, and that he truly does believe the words he speaks.

The ad appears two days before Romney speaks at the Lincoln Day Dinner in El Paso County, Colorado.  El Paso County is home to, among other groups, James Dobson's Focus on the Family and Young Life, two of the region's many evangelical organizations.  The message of "Ocean" is one that every evangelical can agree with and applaud.  Martin speculates that "this ad is yet more evidence of Romney trying to 'close the deal' with social conservatives," but while it certainly helps remind conservative voters of Romney's core values, I expect this theme to remain front and center throughout the general campaign if Romney is the nominee.  The argument about the culture's decline and its impact on children is one that media elites regularly hoot at but which always resonates with soccer moms and coaching dads.  Romney's putting out a notice that this will be an issue for his campaign, and seeing their agenda as part of the roll out of Romney's agenda is very reassuring to many social conservatives.

As is the sense that this campaign has a plan.  Visit the Romney website if you haven't done so recently.  Along with Rudy's, Hillary's and Obama's, it is quite obviously the product of a campaign that understands the virtual campaign as central to success in 2008.  (Fred Thompson's unofficial campaign has a clunky site that underscores the disadvantage of not being a full fledged candidate in a race that has been full fledged since January.)  A presidential primary campaign is not a bus ride with reporters along or a series of press conferences, but a short-lived $100 million dollar sprint which is already about half over.  Iowa voters caucus on Monday, January 14, 2008 and by midnight on Super Duper Tuesday, February 5, both parties will have their nominees.  To get to the nomination, the candidates have to have built and implemented a complex and comprehensive plan, and Romney's team gives every indication of having done just that.  When Romney loaned himself $6.5 million in Q2, I assumed it was because that's what the plan called for to have met its goals, and that his personal financial commitment is to assure that the plan is implemented at every stage.  Reviewing the ruins of the McCain campaign and you read accounts of successive blueprints drawn up and torn up in a sort of a carnival of lousy planning.  (Here's another article from Martin on that subject.)  All you hear coming out of Team Romney is the message, from the candidate or his many surrrogates.  That's the sound of a campaign running on all its cylinders.

Last week a friend in Colorado, a very successful businessman long active in Rocky Mountain politics, e-mailed me that after close study he was going to send money to Romney as the best chance the GOP had in 2008.  I suspect that is happening again and again as the Fred boomlet begins to flatten against the realities of what is necessary in 2008 --energy and extraordinary discipline.  The Rudy-Romney race is far from over, and Thompson still could show the sort of planning a campaign in the new millennium requires, but the time for the Tennessee senator to get in and get organized is very short. 

Why?  Consider that when Florida changed its primary to January 29, in reality it announced that absentee ballots would be available long before that, and that "early voting" in the Sunshine State would get underway on January 15 --the day after the Iowa caucus results are in.  California's absentee ballots will be available from early January forward, and 47% of the ballots cast in the last California primary --June, 2006-- were by absentee.  Building an absentee ballot "chase" program is expensive, and all of those ballots in all of those states will be greatly impacted by the results in Iowa and New Hampshire, which increases the importance of those states beyond their already high value in the 2004 cycle.

All of which suggests that the strategic contributor --the donor who held back to see what happened early on and which candidate put together the best team and rolled out the most coherent plan while demonstrating in the early debates the stage presence and the early commercials the innovation that would be necessary to get to the main event-- might still pick Rudy on the basis of the national polls, but the donor who is really interested in making one contribution to the one candidate who will get the nomination and possibly the White House is looking very hard at the very professionally run Romney campaign.
 

[RightPhalanx]

The Ocean ad:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vFyDWjATbok

 

[BenLurkin]

How does a President remove pornography from the internet and sex and violence from entertainment?

[JohnnyZ]

Hugh Hewitt needs to get off his knees.

[RightPhalanx]

ping!

[Don'tMessWithTexas]

Hugh predicted that after the last election the GOP would have 60 seats in the Senate. He also predicted that GHWB would win in 1992. His track record is.....suspect.

[CanaGuy]

How could anyone vote for a man who belongs to and has been deluded by a cult?

[Diogenesis]

That is consistent with the fact that Romney-the-Dictator,
and author of RomneyCARE=HillaryCARE, wiped out the GOP
in Mass. making him the ultimate RINO-TrojanHorse.

[George W. Bush]

How does a President remove pornography from the internet and sex and violence from entertainment?

The same way he removed it from a major hotel chain on which he sat on the board of directors? Not saying Mitt was spearheading any movement to offer that pron but he also didn't do anything about it and hasn't even said anything about that happening on "his watch" on that board.

And, no, that's not a cheap shot. It's directly relevant to the credibility of a candidate on one of his chosen issues.

[highball]

How does a President remove pornography from the internet and sex and violence from entertainment?

Oh, it's actually quite simple.

The real questions is How does a President remove pornography from the internet and sex and violence from entertainment without handing more and more of our liberty over to a bloated federal government?

Sorry, Mitt. It's tempting to relieve people of their freedom to make choices you don't like when you couch it in terms of children and clean water, but "for the children" is the rallying cry of the nanny-state scoundrel.

[teddyballgame]

“Sorry, Mitt. It’s tempting to relieve people of their freedom to make choices you don’t like when you couch it in terms of children and clean water, but “for the children” is the rallying cry of the nanny-state scoundrel.”

No, try that it’s that he’s talking about traditional family values. Something that has been lacking from the other candidates, namely Guilliani/McCain/Thompson. I applaud Mitt for this. Take your libratarian, hey anthing goes attitude elsewhere.

[George W. Bush]

I may start another thread on this today but I thought we should start looking at 2Q fundraising to evaluate candidate appeal and strength.

Republican Solvency

The campaign financial filings are all up now at the FEC, so I thought I might dig in and see what I could find that hasn't been reported.  Obviously the Cash On Hand issue made big news last week (Ron Paul had more on hand than John McCain, etc.), but even more relevant, I think is campaign solvency.  As you start digging, you realize that even though some campaigns reported Cash on Hand, much of it was already spoken for.

So, I've done a little campaign solvency analysis--first of the Republicans.  The formula for calculating the solvency is simple: Ending Cash on hand + debts owed TO the campaign - debts owed BY the campaign.  Here, in order, with the June 30 solvency, are each of the Republican candidates.

1. Rudy Giuliani--    $18,326,221
2. Mitt Romney--     $  3,176,526
3. Ron Paul--            $  2,354,855
4. John McCain--     $   1,567,011
5. Tom Tancredo--   $     583,451
6. Sam Brownback-- $     460,238
7. Mike Huckabee-- $      406,124
8. Duncan Hunter--  $     212,927
9. T. Thompson--     $       (5,787)
10. Jim Gilmore--       $     (67,163)

So...it's really no surprise that Jim Gilmore packed it in over the weekend.  Nor would it be surprising if Tommy Thompson bailed out after the Iowa straw poll in a few weeks if he failed to catch fire with a top-3 finish there.  Likewise, if Hunter doesn't catch some steam, I doubt that he'll go much longer--my sense is that he would not likely continue to run a campaign that had gone in the red.

The other candidates seem relatively stable right now.  What I find interesting, though, is that Mitt Romney is really not in that good of shape, had he not loaned he committee multiple million of dollars since the campaign started. 

Due to his billing cycle, McStain had more bills come due since, reducing him to about $250,000, just ahead of Duncan.

It's pretty stark when Romney has spent all that money to secure tenuous leads in IA and NH and has a campaign warchest not much larger than Ron Paul's by the time you take out that $6 million that he loaned himself.

We can discount Giuliani's fundraising because he didn't perform well in the first quarter and really poured it on in fundraising. I think Giuliani's funds will take a nosedive in 3Q.

I have to wonder: has Mitt tapped out all his real primary money early? And some polls show he's actually lost in national polls even though he is still holding a secure lead in IA/NH. At least so far.

[highball]

No, try that it’s that he’s talking about traditional family values. Something that has been lacking from the other candidates, namely Guilliani/McCain/Thompson.

Talk is nice, but it's also very cheap. What exactly can or would he do as President to "clean up" television, movies and the internet?

[sittnick]

How could anyone vote for a man who belongs to and has been deluded by a cult?

Hey, no goofier than unitarianism (we've had three of those), and MUCH better than the cult of self that the Clintons belong to. I'm a Catholic, I do not support Romney, in fact I think he would have been a better governor and candidate if he were a BETTER Mormon.

I agree that there are major problems with the Mormon religion. I don't think it stops the man from being a good president. Their faith actually has more on the ball with natural law than many Christian denominations.

I would take a Mormon over those, like the Clintons, who belong to the cult of self-worship.

[teddyballgame]

Yeah, great analysis, Romney’s not in great shape - it’s Ron Paul! Our next Commander-In-Chief! Romney is sitting on personal wealth that dwarfs Guilliani’s and Thompson’s and he’s a serious first tier candidate. It’ll come down to these three. Forget national polls, they don’t mean anthything. Look at NH, IA, SC, FL, MI. Romney is leading in three of them: NH, IA, and MI. If he can close the gap on Guilliani in SC and FL, look out. Is Fred Thompson leading in any states? He’s not declaring yet because as soon as he does he’s attacked and his number go down. That and it hasn’t hurt his fund raising yet.

[teddyballgame]

“I’m a Catholic, I do not support Romney, in fact I think he would have been a better governor and candidate if he were a BETTER Mormon.”

Huh? I’m Catholic and live in MA - don’t quite know what you mean by a better Mormon? I thought he was a very good Governor despite an overwhelming Democratic legislature. I’m not sure how one determins the level of one’s religeous convictions, ie. Mormonism.

[teddyballgame]

“I’m a Catholic, I do not support Romney, in fact I think he would have been a better governor and candidate if he were a BETTER Mormon.”

Huh? I’m Catholic and live in MA - don’t quite know what you mean by a better Mormon? I thought he was a very good Governor despite an overwhelming Democratic legislature. I’m not sure how one determins the level of one’s religeous convictions, ie. Mormonism.

[higgmeister]

The Significance Of Romney's "Ocean"

"Slowly I Turn"

[teddyballgame]

“What exactly can or would he do as President to “clean up” television, movies and the internet?”

I guess you’ll have to elect him to find out. Teen pregnacy and abortions have gone down with seven years of a President preaching abstinence.

[tiger-one]

I agree with your statement and have been trying to find the “Romney Care” statute on the Massachusetts website, after reading pages of insurance options I have concluded Rom Car was not passed as law but as a Order From HQ’s. Am I correct?

[Beagle8U]

“The same way he removed it from a major hotel chain on which he sat on the board of directors? Not saying Mitt was spearheading any movement to offer that pron but he also didn’t do anything about it and hasn’t even said anything about that happening on “his watch” on that board.”

If you check the list that was just posted a few days ago you will see the the DC Marriott was #1 in “Rent a Hooker” calls. #1 by a very wide margin.

The Marriott hotel system is a publicly traded company, but it is still controlled mostly by the LDS church and Slick Mitt is on the board of directors.

Add in the fact that Romney is anti gun and was Governor of the Gay state and I don’t see him winning.