Defence & Foreign Affairs Special Analysis

D&FA via Antimullah ^ | July 31st, 2007 | G. R. Copely

[FARS]

Moving Toward a Confluence of Disruptive Events in the Middle East (with AntiMullah article reference)

Analysis. Gregory Copley, Editor, GIS.

A diverse range of intelligence sources have highlighted a pattern of imminent upheaval across a wide area of the Middle East, expected to culminate during, and following, September 2007, involving

(a) possible military action within Iraq to change the Government; and

(b) renewed provocations against Israel by proxy forces in Lebanon (HizbAllah) and Gaza (HAMAS).

The two issues are intrinsically related, but are being coordinated separately to some extent.

The great strategic substance, however, is that these two events and others are coming together in a confluence of disruptive trends which will profoundly affect the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean, and possibly also exacerbate the already worsening US-Russian relationship, given Moscow’s commitment to strong relations with Tehran (and, by default, Damascus) to help stabilize Russia’s southern flank.

The upheavals could also give the Turkish General Staff the opportunity or casus belli it needs to openly intervene militarily in northern Turkey, ostensibly to protect its interests and to suppress activities there by the Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK).

But the chain of events was also likely to lead to a planned – and well-prepared – escalation by Iran and Syria to engage in activities both against Israel and to expand or preserve their access to and through Iraq.

A move by some Iraqi military officials to change the Shi’a-dominated Government of Nouri Maliki – which is now cooperating closely and openly with the clerical Government of Iran, and deliberately resisting cooperation (insofar as possible) with the US – would not, ultimately, be viewed askance in Washington, which essentially now feels that the original US route to “democracy” in Iraq cannot be achieved rapidly enough to forestall an effective Iranian victory in Iraq.

[FARS]

Currently second article down on the site.

[FARS]

Some good behind the scenes information. Though not emphasised here, it appears Maliki has totally thrown his hat into the ring with Iran and has become an all out supporter of the Islamic regime there. No wonder Gen. Petraeus has a major problem with this “enemy within”.

[Rushmore Rocks]

I’ve felt for quite some time that Maliki needs to go. I think Petraeus agrees.

Good post. Thanks, FARS.

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks FARS.

A move by some Iraqi military officials to change the Shi’a-dominated Government of Nouri Maliki -- which is now cooperating closely and openly with the clerical Government of Iran, and deliberately resisting cooperation (insofar as possible) with the US -- would not, ultimately, be viewed askance in Washington, which essentially now feels that the original US route to "democracy" in Iraq cannot be achieved rapidly enough to forestall an effective Iranian victory in Iraq.

[shield]

bttt

[Alamo-Girl]

Thanks for the ping!

[neverdem]

thanks, bfl

[PhilDragoo]

Maliki has totally thrown his hat into the ring with Iran and
has become an all out supporter of the Islamic regime there.

[potlatch]

Bump, FARS can always use good graphics!

[1035rep]

bttt

[gotribe]

Why maliki and sadr are still alive will be a mystery for historians to sift through and argue about.

[Ouderkirk]

I do nnot understand why the U.S. allowed Sharia Law to be enshrined into the Iraqi Constitution. Islam and Sharia Law are antithetical to democracy and freedom of any sort. Ditto for Afganistan.

Gen. Petraeus is a good man and a good soldier. Can he turn this thing in Iraq around? I don’t know but I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. But The Iraqi and Afgani Constitutions need to be amended to eliminate Sharia as the basis for law.

Ann Coulter is right when she states that we should have invaded these countries, killed their leaders and converted them to Christianity. Seems to me that to allow that dangerous cult of death known as Islam to be a dominant force inside these countries is never really fixing the problem and sowing the seeds of disaster for the future.

[gonzo]

"...Maliki needs to go..."

Gittin' close to time for some 'extra-special-operations' in Iraq. We've got all the bases we needed, built and operational, and the Iraqi civilian infrastructure is better now than under Saddamm, so maybe it's time to change-horses.

Time for some wicked dealin' there ................ FRegards