Posted on 08/05/2007 3:39:26 AM PDT by BlueSky194
The people of the northern Iraqi region of Kurdistan are anxious about increasing American talk of withdrawing at least some troops from the country.
The American decision not to stay and protect the Kurds at the end of the first Gulf War left them vulnerable to genocidal attacks by Saddam Hussein's forces.
Australian lawyer Jonathan Morrow has been working for the Kurdish regional Government of Iraq on oil treaties for the last couple of years, after helping form East Timor's constitution.
He tells the ABC's Mark Colvin the relatively normal and prosperous life of this unusual part of Iraq could be under threat.
"The only thing greater I think than their fear at being abandoned again by the West is the fear of being overrun by their neighbours," he said. "They will not test the relationship with the US and with Great Britain, though they may have reason for doing that for fear that they will be left out again [and] they'll be left to the mercy of hostile elements in the region."
Why are the Kurds worried about the way they're surrounded?
"Well, right now, even as we speak, there are approximately 200,000 Turkish troops on the border of Turkey and Iraq. There, the perceived threat from the Turkish point of view are rogue Kurdish elements that are Turkish Kurds who use the border with Iraq as a way of getting sanctuary from their sporadic conflicts with Turkish forces - not at all supported by the Government in Iraqi Kurdistan but nonetheless seen by the Turks as a threat and seen at least as a reason or a pretext for Turkish engagement.
"Threat number two, at least as great, is largely Sunni Arab Iraqi extremism, the Al Qaeda or insurgent element that we know about so well from Iraqi politics, which not only want to bring down the largely Shiite Iraq Government but would like to see the Kurdish regional Government also suffer.
"That had much less success in Iraqi Kurdistan because it's so much better secured than is Baghdad, so over the course of the last four years, since the American occupation of Iraq in 2003, there's only been something like four of five bombs in Iraqi Kurdistan that have killed people. That's bad enough, you might say, but of course four or five successful bombings over the course of let's say four years is ... a drop in the ocean, it's a quiet afternoon in Baghdad. I think they are hoping, perhaps against hope now, that they will at least this time be given some real security guarantee and some real support in economics and so on by America and the west generally."
What would be the possibilities there if the Americans are going to pull out in some form from the rest of Iraq?
"There are two groups that would be emboldened by that. Most immediately, the Sunni extremists are mentioned - the people have carried out bombings in Iraq and of course in Kurdistan, they are the most immediate threat.
"However, that isn't, I think, the most long-term threat that the Kurds face from a precipitous, to use President Bush's word, pull-out from the rest of Iraq. It is, in fact, the likelihood of a Shiah-dominated Iraq Government that is much less pleasant than the current [Nouri Al] Maliki one. Imagine an Iraq Government that was led by [radical cleric] Moqtada al-Sadr, for instance, which is very easy to imagine. The polling data suggest that he is probably the most popular politician in Iraq ...
"That kind of regime in Baghdad - not the traditional threat to Kurdistan, which is a Sunni Arab supremacist regime, Saddam being the classic example - but a new kind of regime in Baghdad actually would be a very serious threat to the Kurds and that's the greatest danger in the medium- to long-term from American pullout and a lack of support to Iraqi Kurdistan."
So what some people are talking about is a second option, which is that the Americans, instead of pulling out of Iraq, would actually pull back into Kurdistan and maintain some kind of garrison force in Kurdistan?
"I don't think anyone's talking about any wholesale movement of 150,000, 160,000 American troops in Iraq now into Kurdistan. That would be, I think, unnecessary. But certainly, if you look at for instance the Liberal think tank - the Centre for American Progress has proposed, I think, about a 10,000-strong US presence in Kurdistan, which would both be of strategic utility to the Americans but would beyond that really be an underwriting of Kurdistan's security in the region. It would be a signal to the world that any of the elements that I've mentioned couldn't really make an incursion into Iraqi Kurdistan without alerting the attention of the Americans and presumably inviting some opposition from them."
Given the history, are you an optimist about this or a pessimist?
"I'm an optimist about it. There aren't many signals at the moment from the current administration in the US that they are prepared to single the Kurds out, if you like, for special protection that I've just mentioned. It goes completely against the grain of the White House's rhetoric of a unitary, almost non-federal Iraq in which there's an undifferentiated mass of Iraqis, all of whom should owe allegiance to some wonderful Government in Baghdad. This vision, which is of course wholly false, doesn't permit to give those kind of security guarantees, it doesn't even permit them to encourage direct investment into Kurdistan or a real diplomatic engagement, so that's the near-term.
"However, you can see in some of the Democratic Party presidential candidates some understanding of what Kurdistan is - Hillary Clinton particularly but also Barack Obama. You're seeing an understanding that Kurdistan, whatever happens in Iraq, however quickly American troops should be pulled out of the rest of Iraq, Kurdistan shouldn't be abandoned."
It is disgraceful. We leave when we’ve crushed every low life who thinks killing indescriminantly is Allah’s wish.
True...
Yes, the kurds are just a bunch of happy, free people that have been killing NATO allies for many, many years. Your understanding of the situation is...weak....to say the least.
And I was a civilian contractor embedded with the Turkish military in Diyarbakir. I watched the kurds come across the border and slaughter civilian teachers and school bus drivers.....then the Turks would cross the Iraq border and kick the kurds ass.....look up the PPK if ya want to know what a great bunch of guys the kurds are.....sheesh.
I don’t defend people who do the wrong things, and that includes the Kurds. I still don’t think it was right for Hussein to use nerve gas on them.
I haven’t advocated the Kurds be given autonomy. I have not defended their incursions into Turkey.
So why don’t you pose a question and we’ll deal with what’s really bugging you.
Fair enough. I'm tired of having the kurds thrown up as some kind of wonderful allies, to the detrement of the Turks....and BTW, heap plenty of support comes out of the Diyarbakir region.....but most peeps would never know.
Here's a starting point......and it wasn't just about blankets, food or any other BS.....too many dudes with .50 cal for that....I'll let you make your own opinions.
You’ve got a valid beef. I do think we need to keep it in perspective though. The Kurds have keep their portion of Iraq under control. US troops have not had to die in significant numbers in that region for that reason.
It wouldn’t be unusual for US Citizens to be somewhat ignorant of the finer workins of the Turkish / Iraq border in Kurd controled areas. That’s a long way away. And while some condemnation is obviously due, the Kurds as a whole have things somewhat under control, at least by my perception.
Turkey and the Kurds have had differences of opinion over the region. The Kurds exist on both sides of the border. The Kurds want autonomy and Turkey doesn’t want to go that route, because the next issue would cover a rewriting of borders to bring all Kurds into one state.
I’d say both sides have their own views, whether valid by your standpoint or not.
Right now it’s my opinion that both sides have a legitimate beef or viewpoint on this. I’m not sure a short-term solution is attainable. This means some Kurds are going to perpetrate terrorism and Turkey is going to feel inclined to put an end to it by any means possible. I don’t like that. I think Turkey has been patient. I do think some of the Kurds have been also.
Turkey has been a fairly good ally. The Kurds have been favorable to us also. I don’t like to see us put in the position of having to choose sides.
Perhaps you could explain how you view the dynamics.
Not really. The day I take a civilian contractors word, sitting behind a desk long enough to post all day on FR, making a hundred thousand a year, tax free...over a boot in the field.....LOL Get over yourself...
Don't you go challenging my Typo Champion title, now. ;-)
LOL
I will not challenge you. On purpose anyway.
I'm embedded with the military and travel off the FOB several times a week to a place that is considered fairly dangerous.
But I'll just add you to the festering pile of resentful "contract-haters." It;'s not a big pile, but it's pretty steaming.
Nice to meetcha. ;-)
What point of my post are you arguing here?
To me, it just looks like you're thumping your chest, trying to "out-Iraq" me and are spoiling for a fight.
{YAWN.} I really don't have time for you. Go find someone else to play with. Rude people are a dime a dozen; you're nothing special.
Probably one of those "ballcap and belly" guys with a marginal high school education who went around thumping his chest and became an object of derision for most people around him. Those types are all over the place.
OK, now I'm done. Just had to get that one in. ;-)
Fair enough. I was pretty wound up last night, said things that shouldn't have said. And I have never warn a ball cap...;)
“And I was a civilian contractor embedded with the Turkish military in Diyarbakir. I watched the kurds come across the border and slaughter civilian teachers and school bus drivers.....then the Turks would cross the Iraq border and kick the kurds ass.....look up the PPK if ya want to know what a great bunch of guys the kurds are.....sheesh.”
Ask the Armenians what they think of the Turks, while you’re at it. But then, what’s a little genocide here and there. All in good fun. The Turks make the Kurds look like pikers when it comes to the viciousness gene.
I did. They pointed out Blackjack Pershing as a great example of pointing fingers....The Turks aren't dumb. http://www.laughtergenealogy.com/bin/histprof/misc/pershing.html
If a person apologizes, it's all done. I'm not a grudge-holder. ;-)
Be safe. Enjoy your R and R.
I too question the war effort but from the perspective of the Iraqi political scene not our military. They get the job done...always have and always will. But the Iraqi guv isnt stepping up to the plate. All talk. 17 years in various countries in the ME taught me never to trust the SOBs and if you want them to take charge it will have to be forced on them. Politically I dont know how this will shake out but this is the area we need to work on while our troops are doing their job.
Oh, I'll grant you that one. I work directly with some high ranking Iraqi government officials on a government transition mission. It's like herding cats.
The sad thing is, so many of these guys (and there are some fairly high-ranking women, actually) want to do it right and are eager to sort of emulate the west.
But there is far too much corruption and loyalty to Iran in the government. And the Iraqi people hate that. Sunni and Shia alike rant and rave about the "Iran influence."
The great thing is, as I remind them frequently, in a democracy they get to fire their leaders afer four years. Many have admitted to me that they made mistakes in that first election and voted with their hearts and they vow not to do this again.
I hope they're right. I cut them slack because, after all, it was their first time. We'll see how they do it in 2009.
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