Posted on 09/10/2007 5:58:56 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Fred Thompson might have waited too long to enter the Republican fray for president, political experts and party officials say.
The ideal time for kicking off his campaign, they suggested, would have been this summer. Then, the political community was abuzz with speculation about the 6-foot-6-inch Tennessean.
The most-asked question in politics then was: Will he run?
One day, the former U.S. senator sounded like a candidate chomping at the bit to run for president.
The next day, Thompson wasn’t sure.
Hard-core conservatives, who thought they did not have a dog in the 2008 presidential contest, were holding out for Thompson.
But Thompson dawdled.
He was getting conflicting advice from some of his closest friends. It created tensions in the campaign, causing some to call it quits.
The indecisiveness cost him.
“He lost a lot of momentum. He just fiddled around. I think he lost considerable altitude,” said Francis Marion University political scientist Neal Thigpen, a Republican activist.
The announcement conservative Republicans had hoped for last spring finally came Wednesday night during NBC’s “Tonight Show with Jay Leno.”
“It is the longest non-opening act in history,” quipped Emory University analyst Merle Black.
Thompson enters the race late and with sky-high expectations. The combination of the two leaves little margin for error.
Most national polls of Republican voters put Thompson in second place, trailing front-runner former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani but leading former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona.
Thus far, the GOP contest for the presidency has been, for some, a big yawner. It remains to be seen whether Thompson can bring life and spark to the race.
He has about 30 days to prove himself as a worthy candidate.
Judging by his performance this summer, one wonders whether Thompson will measure up.
His summer was a disaster complete with unflattering headlines. There were published reports about a campaign in disarray before it was even an official campaign. His fundraising was sluggish.
Another concern: Thompson’s renowned lack of enthusiasm for work, including campaigning.
Roll Call columnist Stu Rothenberg says Thompson blew his best chance by not getting into the race in the spring or summer.
Instead, Thompson looked indecisive and weak, Rothenberg wrote in a recent column. “He has lost potential supporters and contributions to other campaigns. And he has limited the strategic options of his campaign.”
The question is whether Thompson can regain any of the momentum his candidacy lost over the summer.
After a summer of staff upheavals, mixed reviews of his speeches and fundraising that did not meet expectations, Thompson says he’s ready to go.
For the next 30 days, the political world will be watching intently. During that time, Thompson must demonstrate an ability to organize a campaign, raise money and create a solid, positive image, said College of Charleston political scientist Bill Moore.
University of South Carolina political scientist Robert Botsch of Aiken predicts Thompson’s candidacy will “shake things up.”
Republican U.S. Rep. Gresham Barrett of Westminster says Thompson will “bring freshness, honesty and realism to the race.”
One of the things that Barrett likes most about Thompson — which could be the candidate’s undoing — is his tendency to stray from his script. “I like it that he is unscripted,” the congressman said.
Thompson must live up to the high expectations that his much-anticipated candidacy gave rise to, says Winthrop University professor Scott Huffmon.
If Thompson fails, if his candidacy starts sliding, he could very well be in trouble, says Moore of the College of Charleston.
“His candidacy is either going to take off like a rocket or come crashing back to earth,” said Clemson political scientist Doug Woodard, a GOP consultant.
Which one will it be?
We’ll know in about a month.
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completely missed the memo...
the more they cast aspersions, the more interesting he'll be.
Gosh, that really narrows it down... And he gets PAID for saying things like that? To paraphrase Homer Simpson, is there anything a polysci consultant DOESN'T know?
For the record Slate, starting the Presidential Campaign eighteen months before the general election is a asinine idea.
Then again, maybe Fred had a political coup.
Dollars to donuts a year from now Fred will be a household name and the guy who wrote this piece will be flipping burgers at Mickey D’s!
Nonsense. Too early, maybe.
There is an excruciatingly long time left.
Yep, Fred waited so long he’s only tied with rudy without spending much time or money at all.
Yup, people wouldve supported Fred if he would’ve done the official announcement a couple weeks ago, but this is just too far.
hahahahaha yeah right.
The old sage Fred said it himself. (paraphrasing) It looks like Thompson is the best man for the job, too bad he got in too late.
Actually Giuliani leads the gallup poll by 12 and the NYT/CBS poll out today by 5. thompson is up by 4 in the Rasmussen poll.
Do you have links on the polls?
The press likes to call the shots and make or break the candidates.
Fred’s not playing by their rules, and they don’t like it.
But as far as I can tell, no one has cast a vote in the primaries yet, so it’s doubtful that Fred “entered too late.”
Two weeks ago, “undecided” was leading the GOP field.
And not coincidentally, Fred was the undecided candidate.
Now that he’s in, Fred is leading the field.
Just who exactly do these “experts” think is going to win the nomination instead?
It seems to me that the media and the so-called “experts” want Giuliani to win.
The only argument against Fred they can muster is that “he waited too long.” Too long because they already declared Rudy the winner, and they’re not about to let anyone come along and prove them wrong.
This is the first I’ve heard of an arbitrary cut off date after which nothing else counts.
It sort of reminds me of the way the Democrats run the vote in the House.
Thompson always said that the traditional date for starting a presidential campaign was AFTER labor day, and that campaigns are too damned long.
He said it.
He meant it.
He lived up to it.
Now STFU.
Personally, I think everyone else got in TOO EARLY. It’s a hell of a long time until election day. Only the pot smoking DemocRATS think it’s election day when they get up in the morning.
Exactly. Less time and growing more excruciating by the minute.
So much for their “political experts.”
What did the “experts” say about Ronald Reagan?
The “experts” aren’t running. Fred Thompson is.
It is hillaryarious!
The leader in the polls did something wrong to get there!
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