Posted on 10/05/2007 5:29:02 AM PDT by Kaslin
A new survey of the five states that will hold caucuses or primaries prior to February's "Tsunami Tuesday" indicates the so-called "religious right" is a shrinking force among Republicans who say they will vote in their states' presidential primaries.
The poll offered significant indications that the new makeup of Republican voters is no longer that of a party dominated by social- or religious-based voters.
Last year, incumbent Alabama Gov. Bob Riley, who was viewed by most as a moderate conservative, drubbed former Alabama Justice Roy Moore, who championed the cause of keeping the 10 Commandments at an Alabama courthouse.
In Georgia, former Christian Coalition national director Ralph Reed was solidly defeated in a bid for his state's nomination for lieutenant governor. In fact, Georgia's true Christian Coalition actually disbanded and regrouped under a different name.
Throughout the so-called Bible Belt, GOP voters were showing a strong inkling that while they may be intensely religious, they aren't as interested in mixing politics and personal religious beliefs as some pundits might think.
Here is the rundown of the new polls. Our InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion survey of each of the states had at least 700-plus respondents. In most states, the number was well over 1,000, meaning the margin of error for each of the polls was a very tight plus-or-minus 3 percentage points. Each poll interviewed likely Republican voters and was weighted for age, race and gender.
Our survey asked likely Republican presidential primary voters in these critical early states if, in their political philosophy, they are primarily:
A conservative based on religious-based or related considerations
A conservative in general
A moderate conservative
A moderate
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In every state, the vast majority of voters described themselves as being somewhere between "general conservative" to "moderate." In fact, in both New Hampshire and Michigan, nearly half of those who responded said they were either "moderate conservative" or "conservative."
Here are the percentages, by state, of those Republicans who said their own political philosophy was "primarily religious-based conservative": Florida, 28 percent; South Carolina, 38 percent; Michigan, 27 percent; New Hampshire, 17 percent; Iowa, 35 percent.
There is a clear pattern here. Almost all of these percentages for each state were either below or equal to President Bush's national approval rating. That's not to suggest there is a direct correlation. Rather, it places into perspective just how much less significant this particular sector of the GOP is now than it was in past election cycles.
After all, if President Bush's approval rating -- mid-30s percent range -- is considered a disaster, then numbers this low for a group of voters who once dominated the GOP's agenda must be viewed as equally disappointing.
Ironically, these numbers come in the exact same week that The Wall Street Journal carried a front-page story describing the loss of corporate and business support for Republicans.
So if business is bailing and the so-called religious right dwindling in influence, who really is the potential driving force for a GOP candidate for president? The answer is, those who are a little more moderate on social issues, but adamant when it comes to matters that impact their pocketbooks and personal circumstances.
What most Republican candidates don't realize is that the housing market, real tax reform, job security and other matters that impact peoples' day-to-day lives are far more significant to these voters than many of the issues GOP candidates, in pandering to an increasingly dwindling party base, have focused on.
Who is helped by this shift in the makeup of the GOP electorate? The answer is, every candidate. Republicans vying for their party's nomination are now free to spend their time addressing our nation's monetary and trade issues; how to help those caught in the "credit crunch"; ways to deal with illegal immigration in a manner that has real teeth; and ways to create stability in and ultimate departure from Iraq.
Does this mean the GOP has suddenly shifted from a party of saints to one of sinners? No. What it does mean is that most Republicans probably feel like those stuck on the Titanic: their faith and prayers in their minds, but right now they are looking for a lifeboat.
This poll is poorly constructed. A person might have been “A conservative based on religious-based or related considerations” and then bought into the other aspects of conservatism and became “A conservative in general”. In this poll that person would be seen as a ‘loss’ for religious conservatism.
Clearly, the nonstop leftist attack on the “religious right” is delivering the goods. Conservatives who still believe in God and attend church have been demonized by leftists who don’t want any standards, morals or ethics imposed on them or their actions.
Go figure!
The political elites are getting what they want - a class of voters so disenfranchised that no one bothers to vote, thus allowing them to run unopposed and keep their overpaid, pointless political elected position.
And, we wonder why the government produces so much dreck legislation!!
Americans need to find a local gospel-teaching MEGA-church and not only attend, but donate their tithes!!
If the GOP continues to ignore its small-government roots and focus so much of its platform on religious conservatives, it will be fighting yesterday's political campaign. The Democrats are getting a lot of votes from people who ought to be recoiling from their irresposible spending and fantasy/fact confusion in utter disgust...but the Republicans aren't giving them any real alternative.
In PA and OH, religious conservatives (notably Anabaptists like Amish and Mennonites) can turn the tide of an election, if they are riled up enough to come out and vote. They won't make a big deal out of it. They'll just quietly turn out in droves under the radar screen.
They did so in 2000 out of disgust for Clinton's behavior and although Bush did not win PA, he made it closer than it had been for a while.
They stayed home in 2006 and many thought it was due to Mark Foley, Tom DeLay and other anti-GOP maelstroms blown out of proportion by Democrats and the DBM.
Many conservative religious groups still hold to the idea that religion and politics don't and shouldn't mix and are loathe to stick their necks out into the political arena.
I would bet that Mrs. Clinton's negatives are quite high among religious conservatives, but are they high enough to spur these folks to get out and vote AGAINST her even if they're not enamored of the GOP candidate? I hope so.
If Rudy is the GOP candidate, I hope no Christian in America will vote for him.
I agree. I would have answered “a conservative in general” although I believe religious conservatives are the backbone of the party.
Most Christians would be happy to have a God-fearing, moral person in the White House who will speak out against abortion, gay marriage, etc., and will defend the Judeo-Christian traditions. They have that in Bush.
That person does not have to have to be a “Bible-thumper” who wears their religion on their sleeve. Give them another few years of Hillary, they’ll be clamoring for change.
Most of the Republican candidates should pass the “test” for religious conservatives...’cept Rudy, unfortunately.
Approximately 20% of Bush voters in 04 identified themselves as evangelical Christians in exit polls. And that didn't include the many devout Catholics who are also social conservatives, and in many cases even more fervently pro-life than evangelicals. If just 20% of that sector of Bush voters had stayed home that day Kerry would now be president. Bush himself may have lost the support of a portion of those voters along with a portion of the non-religious conservative bloc who are very much disappointed by his lukewarm overall conservatism, but I don't believe that the party itself has lost enough of them to make that bloc as insignificant as this polltaker would like us to believe.
I still maintain that if Rudy wins the nomination Hillary will be the next president. The one thing I know for reasonably sure is that only one member of my 14 member extended family has said that she will vote for Rudy if he's nominated, and she will only vote for him because she detests Hillary so vehemently. The others, myself included, say they will vote for the Republican candidates for Congress and state offices, but either skip over the presidential space on the ballot or vote for a minor party nominee. We are all socially conservative evangelical Christians, and I can't believe that our voting intentions regarding the '08 election are as far out of line with other voters in that same category as this article would have us believe.
In primaries where the candidate with the highest vote total wins the entire slate of delegates, Rudy may well win enough delegates to take the nomination at the convention due to the large field of candidates. But that won't necessarily translate into a victory in November of '08 where electoral votes are the key element in the race.
By then it will be too late.
A lot of religious conservatives are split on the immigration issue, not being as strident as other conservatives, some actually supporting legalization of illegal immigrants.
It seems we see it here at FreeRepublic on a daily basis. Keep in mind, a country that does not love the Lord will perish.
Ping to read later
Our President being one of them.
100% correct
And what old fear-based doctrines would those be? Please be much more specific in the details of the specific doctrines you are referring to.
I hope the doctrines you oppose are not the the ones that held the immoral left in check for almost four hundred years in this country?
The reckless immorality of the nineteen sixties is not something to be proud of.
That movement was not a Republican movement, it certainly was not a consertive movement and it stood in opposition to the entire history of the American law, morality and culture.
A combination of an artificially godless, Big-Government public school monopoly, fifty years of secular leftist news media and fifty years of filth from the leftist entertainment industry have worked in combination to condition our culture into the irresponsibility and immorality revolution you see today. The same destructive anti-American garbage launched by the pro-filth leftists in the nineteen sixties has eaten at the heart of our country like a cancer. As government has gotten larger and larger, the courts have been used by the left to create the new immoral culture, replacing the one American's loved and the reprobates hated.
Good post #11.....I agree but it appears the problem is deeper than just a loss of strong religious belief by the people, rather, it is more of a general breakdown of our Society as a whole...people’s beliefs have been shaken to the core, due in large part to the dreadful news we see on tv every day spelling out the chaos in Society
The answer is not in withholding your vote- that is like opening the door to anarchy. We have to be strong and vote Rep, for by not voting the evil ones will win by default.
As for that survey, does it really measure if people have lost many of their religious values, or are they resigned to the reality that we stil;l do not have the best Rep candidates running ?..i would like to see more surveys along this line by several large and reputable pollsters.
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