Republican Iowa Caucus: Romney 25% Thompson 19% Huckabee 18%

Rasmusen Reports ^ | October 17, 2007 | Scott Rasmusen

[2ndDivisionVet]

The first Rasmussen Reports poll of the Iowa Republican Caucus for 2008 finds former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney enjoying a six-point lead while former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee are virtually tied for second.

Romney attracts 25% of the vote from Likely Caucus Participants, Thompson earns 19%, and Huckabee is at 18% in the poll. National frontrunner and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is the only other Republican in double digits at 13%. Arizona Senator John McCain, once considered by some to be the GOP frontrunner, gets just 6% of the vote. Kansas Senator Sam Brownback (3%), rounds out the field with Congressmen Tom Tancredo (2%), Ron Paul (2%), and Duncan Hunter (1%). Eleven percent (11%) are undecided (see crosstabs).

However, the race in Iowa is very fluid. For each of the top four candidates, between 57% and 61% of their supporters say they might change their mind before the caucus is held.

Romney and Thompson are essentially even among men, but Thompson attracts only 10% of the vote from women. In fact, Romney, Huckabee, and Giuliani all outpoll Thompson for the female vote.

Huckabee leads among Evangelical Christians while Romney leads among those with other religious beliefs.

Nationally, Giuliani leads the polls in the race for the Republican Presidential Nomination with Thompson in second. Thompson is seen as the most politically conservative candidate in the field. However, Romney leads not only in Iowa, but in New Hampshire, scene of the first Primary Election of the season.

Among those likely to take part in the Iowa Republican caucuses, Romney is viewed favorably by 76%, Thompson by 73%. Their unfavorable ratings are virtually identical and the lowest in the GOP field (22% for Romney, 23% for Thompson).

Huckabee is viewed favorably by 64% and unfavorably by 30%. Giuliani gets positive reviews from 68% and negative reviews from 30%.

For McCain, the numbers are dismal. Among Republicans likely to participate in the caucus, 53% have a favorable opinion of the Arizona Senator while 45% have an unfavorable view.

Seventy-five percent (75%) of the likely Republican Caucus Participants say that President Bush is doing a good or an excellent job. Seventy-seven percent (77%) believe that U.S. troops should remain in Iraq until the mission is complete. Nationally, 64% of Americans want the troops out of Iraq within a year.

Fifty-one percent (51%) of Likely Republican Caucus Participants believe the Republicans will win the White House in 2008. Twenty-five percent (25%) believe the Democrats will win and 24% are not sure. Democrats are far more confident that their team will win in November 2008.

All polling for caucus events presents challenges in determining who is likely to show up and participate. In conducting and analyzing this survey, Rasmussen Reports reviewed results for many possible levels of turnout. While the results varied modestly depending upon the turnout model, the overall dynamic was the same in all cases—Romney in the lead with Thompson and Huckabee close to each other in second. For example, our overall sample shows Romney with 25% of the vote and a six point lead. When only those who were absolutely certain they would vote, Romney attracts 24% support and leads by two. See information on screening questions and the sample used in this telephone survey.

[b9]

She may actually be even more conservative than FRed. She was an RNC staffer before she met FRed, IIRC.

You know, maybe she's TOO accomplished, and women feel threatened.

She's had two kids, but is not fat.
She's mature beyond her years, educated, yet not overtly opinionated.
She's managed to capture the heart of a great man, and will capture the heart of America when they get to know her.

I truly believe this.

[Bobbisox]

Yes sir...he is my one and only choice. I have been in his corner since he said he was just thinking about it. My husband is just as enthusiastic about his candidacy. Thanks again for all your good posts.

[dforest]

Thompson/Hunter or Hunter/Thompson, how’s that?

[CheyennePress]

>>>Maybe more women need to hear FROM Jeri Thompson, and not just ABOUT her from the misleading MSM.<<<

And yet she ducked out of an appearance of potential first ladies with Maria Schriver. I have no doubts she’s an asset. I think the trophy wife calls are totally uncalled for. She had a career for herself and has supported her husband.

But it’s not helping Thompson’s cause when not only is he cancelling on his campaign stops but his wife is, too.

[CheyennePress]

I’d prefer Hunter/Romney or Romney/Hunter.

But Duncan Hunter is a class act, and I have no doubts his son will carry on the family tradition.

[dforest]

At this point in time, anyone who keeps Rooty and Jooty out of the WH.

[daylilly]

I’m curious, wondering whether all those hit pieces about Jeri Thompson last June are what is driving this negative female polling information. This doesn’t make a lot of sense.

[b9]

Maria Schriver does NOT bring out the best. LOL

Certainly not in her husband.

This is a PLUS for Jeri Thompson, who obviously has Fred’s same good discretion .

Maria is proof that we can tell the true heart of a polititian by his wife’s leanings.
Jeri is CONSERVATIVE through and through. No wonder she eschewed Schriver.

[Goodness]

I wonder how much each “Likely Caucus Participant” is costing Mitt?

[Dante3]

We can look at the same data and come to a different conclusion. While my top choices are Tancredo/Hunter/Thompson, at this moment I see Romney as the front runner due to several smart moves he has made. If I were forced to bet, I’d say it will be Romney/Thompson. I cannot see either Rudy, who is too much like Hillary and too pro illegal aliens, or McCain, who is too creepy and unstable, as winning.

[Goodness]

"HOWEVER, when the little ‘tard PAUL is outpolling you?"

...then maybe it's time to stop dismissing him as "a little 'tard" among the Republican field.

[ejonesie22]

Actaully, as Fred and Jeri get out, I think that is going to fade. But it may have been a factor, yes.

Women don’t like a gold digger ala Anna Nicole, but a competent woman will go far.

[b9]

You know, it says a lot for Fred that he chose such a conservative wife.
A rino would never do that.
Jeri is the most conservative of all the wives.

[redgirlinabluestate]

Can we get some female input?

I like Jeri. She is one of Fred's strongest assets in my opinion.

However, many women were dumped by their husbands who ran off with trophy wives and so they may have certain (perhaps subconscious) biases against Jeri and Fred. Or, it's possible that they have never approved of May-December relationships and won't give Fred and Jeri a break. It is an emotional and visceral reaction that the Thompsons cannot really do anything about, however unfair it may seem.

[Grunthor]

“...then maybe it’s time to stop dismissing him as “a little ‘tard” among the Republican field.”

He just voted along with 88 Dhims to stab our troops in the back. The “man” is code pinko, big time.

[redgirlinabluestate]

I think Jeri will do great on her own. When she is side by side with Fred, however, it only emphasizes the age difference which some voters won't like. Jeri recently cancelled an appearance where she could have dispelled some of the misconceptions about her though. That's not a good sign. -->Jeri Cancels

[ejonesie22]

That may prove to be her smartest move to date.

[b9]

LOL! Good for Jeri!

Now they might cancel the whole event!

[prairiebreeze]

You really think the people of Iowa are going to be climbing all over themselves to support a guy who never made the effort to show up, never addressed them, who ducks out of interviews, and is at best weak on social issues? And the border?

Well, there are lies. And then there are damn lies CheyennePress.

[perfect_rovian_storm]

I think he’s under the impression that if he keeps repeating it, it might come true and somehow Willard Myth Romney will be seen as conservative by someone beyond the brainwashed few.