Posted on 10/17/2007 12:17:17 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The first Rasmussen Reports poll of the Iowa Republican Caucus for 2008 finds former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney enjoying a six-point lead while former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee are virtually tied for second.
Romney attracts 25% of the vote from Likely Caucus Participants, Thompson earns 19%, and Huckabee is at 18% in the poll. National frontrunner and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is the only other Republican in double digits at 13%. Arizona Senator John McCain, once considered by some to be the GOP frontrunner, gets just 6% of the vote. Kansas Senator Sam Brownback (3%), rounds out the field with Congressmen Tom Tancredo (2%), Ron Paul (2%), and Duncan Hunter (1%). Eleven percent (11%) are undecided (see crosstabs).
However, the race in Iowa is very fluid. For each of the top four candidates, between 57% and 61% of their supporters say they might change their mind before the caucus is held.
Romney and Thompson are essentially even among men, but Thompson attracts only 10% of the vote from women. In fact, Romney, Huckabee, and Giuliani all outpoll Thompson for the female vote.
Huckabee leads among Evangelical Christians while Romney leads among those with other religious beliefs.
Nationally, Giuliani leads the polls in the race for the Republican Presidential Nomination with Thompson in second. Thompson is seen as the most politically conservative candidate in the field. However, Romney leads not only in Iowa, but in New Hampshire, scene of the first Primary Election of the season.
Among those likely to take part in the Iowa Republican caucuses, Romney is viewed favorably by 76%, Thompson by 73%. Their unfavorable ratings are virtually identical and the lowest in the GOP field (22% for Romney, 23% for Thompson).
Huckabee is viewed favorably by 64% and unfavorably by 30%. Giuliani gets positive reviews from 68% and negative reviews from 30%.
For McCain, the numbers are dismal. Among Republicans likely to participate in the caucus, 53% have a favorable opinion of the Arizona Senator while 45% have an unfavorable view.
Seventy-five percent (75%) of the likely Republican Caucus Participants say that President Bush is doing a good or an excellent job. Seventy-seven percent (77%) believe that U.S. troops should remain in Iraq until the mission is complete. Nationally, 64% of Americans want the troops out of Iraq within a year.
Fifty-one percent (51%) of Likely Republican Caucus Participants believe the Republicans will win the White House in 2008. Twenty-five percent (25%) believe the Democrats will win and 24% are not sure. Democrats are far more confident that their team will win in November 2008.
All polling for caucus events presents challenges in determining who is likely to show up and participate. In conducting and analyzing this survey, Rasmussen Reports reviewed results for many possible levels of turnout. While the results varied modestly depending upon the turnout model, the overall dynamic was the same in all cases—Romney in the lead with Thompson and Huckabee close to each other in second. For example, our overall sample shows Romney with 25% of the vote and a six point lead. When only those who were absolutely certain they would vote, Romney attracts 24% support and leads by two. See information on screening questions and the sample used in this telephone survey.
.. many women are taking a good hard look at the May/December thingI grieves me to say this, but I have heard this from several right-thinking women in my office. It's just so foreign to me.
As is the younger-male demographic leaning to Romney. It must be a metrosexual thing.
BTW, you saved the best for last on your homepage : )
It's been moved up to January 3rd: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1912183/posts
Ron Paul is running for the looser time to speak at the convention.
Just like Jessie Jackson did at his ridiculous run.
You know...I've been married 36 years and I would certainly never hold against a man the right to begin a new family if that is what he wants. Fred seems like a very gentle yet strong man, good husband and father. Mitt Romney is just too slick for me, too prepackaged, and makes me uncomfortable.
As for Jeri choosing a much older man, she looks very much in love when she looks at him. After the age of 40, what does it matter? I saw Judy Giuliani in her interview last night. Sorry…she doesn’t have what it takes to make a great first lady. In my opinion, it is due to her lack of interest in politics and her role as “the other woman” in Rudy’s previous marriage.
Fred Thompson is the only choice for me. Fred is the WE THE PEOPLE candidate. We asked him to run...and he stepped up!
Guiliani = Defeat.
Guiliani = Third party candidate
No Guiliani = no problem
Where are you pulling that figure on women? The only Guiliani support of women that I have seen has been RINO women who don’t like christians having a say in the party.
Why? FRed has almost no money and very little time invested in Iowa. Mitt has tons of both. A strong second for FRed in Iowa would show the always salivating pundits how weak Mitt is. They would go for the jugular. About the only thing I can think of that would truly hurt FRed is losing in South Carolina, and THAT AIN'T GONNA HAPPEN!!
Just like Clinton, he could harass, rape, perjure but it just didn't matter because he'd keep abortion legal...
and they have a kinder view of candidates who move thier mistresses into the Mayoral home where the soon-to-be ex-wife lives with the children?
The Thompson with 10% of the women is from the Rasmussen article, which I quoted, which is why it is in italics. You see, it is a convention at FR to put quotes in italics.
What's with the Giuliani references? The article states that all the candidates poll more evenly among men and women, save for Thompson. The ladies don't like Thompson for some reason, and this I am sure has nothing to do with his nubile mate.
I don’t think that this is RINO HQ, but there are an awful lot of folks here who are willing to compromise on core beliefs just for the sake of a so-called “viable” anti-Hillary candidate.
Not saying Thompson will be a disappointment, but he has yet to strike me as a guy who really wants to lead the country in a return to conservative values.
If he wins, I hope that I’ll be presently surprised.
Maybe more women need to hear FROM Jeri Thompson, and not just ABOUT her from the misleading MSM.
She's intelligent, gracious and articulate ~ a huge asset for Thompson.
She definitely helped influence my support for Fred.
They usually don’t even have any information on Duncan Hunter. Wonder why he rated this mention? 1% is miniscule.
In many ways, it's simply fear. "My husband will leave me for a younger woman with big chi chi's if we elect Thompson". That's the logic. Fact of the matter is if he's gonna leave you, he'll leave you for anyone. Even Fred.
sure, voters prefer candidates to have wives who are ugly shrivelled up nags who go through life as a first class witch.
By that logic of the article then Fred has the men’s vote locked.
Input from a woman:
I’ve been a conservative woman all of my adult life because of homeschooling and children and being married to a vet. I think a woman with a brain who thinks logically would be a conservative.
I admit to a small amount of illogical thinking i.e. Fred looks like my father in law did while he was alive, I have no good pictures of my FIL so I collect Fred pictures. So, illogically I like how Fred looks. His wife is a beautiful lady [wasn’t sure about that at first]. Fred [illogically] looks alive with Jeri and the children with him which I feel good about.
More than anything though is the logical mind, I agree with his thoughts and principles and things he stands for. That counts for a lot more.
A lot of younger women that I know of go on feelings and emotions and can’t think straight. I don’t like being around such females.
But Jeri Thompson is a firm conservative, I can really like that.
You really think the people of Iowa are going to be climbing all over themselves to support a guy who never made the effort to show up, never addressed them, who ducks out of interviews, and is at best weak on social issues? And the border?
Not likely.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.