Posted on 10/17/2007 12:17:17 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The first Rasmussen Reports poll of the Iowa Republican Caucus for 2008 finds former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney enjoying a six-point lead while former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee are virtually tied for second.
Romney attracts 25% of the vote from Likely Caucus Participants, Thompson earns 19%, and Huckabee is at 18% in the poll. National frontrunner and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is the only other Republican in double digits at 13%. Arizona Senator John McCain, once considered by some to be the GOP frontrunner, gets just 6% of the vote. Kansas Senator Sam Brownback (3%), rounds out the field with Congressmen Tom Tancredo (2%), Ron Paul (2%), and Duncan Hunter (1%). Eleven percent (11%) are undecided (see crosstabs).
However, the race in Iowa is very fluid. For each of the top four candidates, between 57% and 61% of their supporters say they might change their mind before the caucus is held.
Romney and Thompson are essentially even among men, but Thompson attracts only 10% of the vote from women. In fact, Romney, Huckabee, and Giuliani all outpoll Thompson for the female vote.
Huckabee leads among Evangelical Christians while Romney leads among those with other religious beliefs.
Nationally, Giuliani leads the polls in the race for the Republican Presidential Nomination with Thompson in second. Thompson is seen as the most politically conservative candidate in the field. However, Romney leads not only in Iowa, but in New Hampshire, scene of the first Primary Election of the season.
Among those likely to take part in the Iowa Republican caucuses, Romney is viewed favorably by 76%, Thompson by 73%. Their unfavorable ratings are virtually identical and the lowest in the GOP field (22% for Romney, 23% for Thompson).
Huckabee is viewed favorably by 64% and unfavorably by 30%. Giuliani gets positive reviews from 68% and negative reviews from 30%.
For McCain, the numbers are dismal. Among Republicans likely to participate in the caucus, 53% have a favorable opinion of the Arizona Senator while 45% have an unfavorable view.
Seventy-five percent (75%) of the likely Republican Caucus Participants say that President Bush is doing a good or an excellent job. Seventy-seven percent (77%) believe that U.S. troops should remain in Iraq until the mission is complete. Nationally, 64% of Americans want the troops out of Iraq within a year.
Fifty-one percent (51%) of Likely Republican Caucus Participants believe the Republicans will win the White House in 2008. Twenty-five percent (25%) believe the Democrats will win and 24% are not sure. Democrats are far more confident that their team will win in November 2008.
All polling for caucus events presents challenges in determining who is likely to show up and participate. In conducting and analyzing this survey, Rasmussen Reports reviewed results for many possible levels of turnout. While the results varied modestly depending upon the turnout model, the overall dynamic was the same in all cases—Romney in the lead with Thompson and Huckabee close to each other in second. For example, our overall sample shows Romney with 25% of the vote and a six point lead. When only those who were absolutely certain they would vote, Romney attracts 24% support and leads by two. See information on screening questions and the sample used in this telephone survey.
I’m going with Hunter as I want him to move
“The first Rasmussen Reports poll of the Iowa Republican Caucus for 2008 finds former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney enjoying a six-point lead while former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee are virtually tied for second.”
Wasn’t Romney recently enjoying a 10% lead? Now it’s down to 6? Hmmm, better move that Caucus date up to November!
As I recall,Bush didn’t do really great out of the gate in the debate department either but thank God he became our president. I trust Thompson to do what’s right for this country.
Nice try, except for one problem: Mitt Romney is spending a fortune advertising in both places. Fred Thompson hasn’t spent a dime. YET.
“People like some “real person” in a politician”
... so they’ll vote for an actor and someone who’s been in politics most of his life over the guy who’s made half a billion as a venture capitalist and been in the real private sector most of his life ... uh huh.
“and that seems to be playing well.”
“sincerity” is ‘playing well’? Good.
Maybe a Fred/Duncan ticket would be the ticket??
Power comes in numbers.
Going with Rasmussen to get a similar sampling, as of 9/30:
Thompson 24%
Rudy 20%
Romney 15%
McCain 10%
Huckabee 7%
(South Carolina)
“Ron Paul (2%), and Duncan Hunter (1%).”
I love Duncan Hunter, even more than Fred. Hunter is FAR more conservative consistently HOWEVER, when the little ‘tard PAUL is outpolling you?
Just Damn.
“Maybe a Fred/Duncan ticket would be the ticket??”
BTTT
“For McCain, the numbers are dismal. Among Republicans likely to participate in the caucus, 53% have a favorable opinion of the Arizona Senator while 45% have an unfavorable view.”
I change my mind. I thought that Tancredo would be next out. I now believe it will be McCain.
I would work my tail off for a Thompson/Hunter ticket.
They don’t??
So what is the perfect combination women seem to want?
Billary??
And what does the spouse of a candidate have to do with how the candidate performs?? Need I say more?
The MittWits will cling to the ARG outlier for dear life. It’s basically all they have left, as their world comes crashing down around them.
I love their new ‘you keep dissing Romney which is helping Rudy’ thing. They must have released a new talking point at MittWit Central Command.
It’s Run Paul’s to lose.
Yeah, but Tanc has zero cash-on-hand. He’s in debt up to his eyeballs with nothing to show for it. I think McCain can at least afford to stick it out till NH.
http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2007/10/dick_bennett_on_his_south_caro.html
http://www.latestpolitics.com/blog/2007/10/arg-south-carolina-poll.html
http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2007/10/args_bizarre_sc_poll.html
http://race42008.com/2007/09/30/poll-alert-arg-south-carolina/
Well, you better send him a few more million dollars to spend on winning a primary (ANY PRIMARY).
That cool $100k he’s got left ain’t gonna get him far.
“I’m going with Hunter as I want him to move”
I too am backing Hunter, however if he doesn’t begin to shows signs of life I will vote for Thompson in order to stop the RINO express.
“I’m going with Hunter as I want him to move”
I too am backing Hunter, however if he doesn’t begin to shows signs of life I will vote for Thompson in order to stop the RINO express.
“I’m going with Hunter as I want him to move”
I too am backing Hunter, however if he doesn’t begin to shows signs of life I will vote for Thompson in order to stop the RINO express.
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