Posted on 10/18/2007 5:16:17 PM PDT by finnman69
October 12-16, 2007
Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani maintains his status as the most-preferred nominee among Republican primary voters nationwide. Former Senator Fred Thompson remains in second, slightly further behind Giuliani now than last month, and Senator John McCain's support is holding steady in third. Mike Huckabee, included in the choices in this poll for the first time, gets 4%.
REPUBLICAN CHOICE FOR THE NOMINATION
(Among Republican Primary Voters)
Now 9/07 8/07 7/07
Giuliani 29% 27% 38% 33%
Thompson 21 22 18 25
McCain 18 18 12 15
Romney 12 14 13 8
Huckabee 4 -- - - --
Giuliani leads among moderate primary voters, while Thompson leads among white evangelicals, a key GOP voting bloc. Among conservatives, Giuliani and Thompson are neck and neck at 24% each. McCain runs second among moderates behind Giuliani, and third among conservatives and white evangelicals.
KEY GROUPS: WHERE THE RACE STANDS
(Among Republican Primary Voters)
All Conservs. Moderates White Evangelicals
Giuliani 29% 24% 32% 26%
Thompson 21 24 18 29
McCain 18 16 23 15
Romney 12 14 10 7
Huckabee 4 5 2 6
However, Giuliani's backers have growing reservations about their candidate. Today six in ten of his backers like him but have their doubts; in August more described their support as strongly in favor of him.
STRENGTH OF CANDIDATE SUPPORT
(Among Republican Primary Voters)
Giuliani supporters All GOP voters
Now 8/07 Now 8/07
Strongly favor 30% 47% 40% 47%
Have reservations 60 45 50 43
Dislike others 7 7 7 8
27% of Republican primary voters would definitely vote for Giuliani in the general election in 2008 if he became the Republican Party’s presidential nominee, while 11% say they definitely will not vote for him. Among white evangelicals, those who say they would definitely vote for him (18%) are fewer than those who say they definitely would not (22%). Most voters – including most Republican primary voters and most white evangelicals – say they would either consider voting for him or that it is too early to say.
IF GIULIANI WON THE REPUBLICAN NOMINATION, WOULD YOU…? (Among registered voters)
All GOP prim White
voters voters Evangelicals
Definitely vote for him 10% 27% 18%
Consider voting for him 26 36 27
Definitely not vote for him 29 11 22
Too early to say 34 26 32
18% of Democrats would at least consider voting for Giuliani, while most of them, 51%, definitely would not. 33% of Independents would at least consider voting for him. Only 24% of Independents definitely would not. All the major candidates for the Republican nomination are seen positively by Republican primary voters, although Giuliani is the only one with a net favorable rating from registered voters overall. Many voters have yet to make up their minds, particularly when it comes to Thompson, Romney, and Huckabee.
ASSESSING THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES
(Among registered voters)
All GOP Prim voters
Giuliani: Favorable 35% 48%
Not favorable 27 20
Undecided/DK 37 32
McCain: Favorable 27% 37%
Not favorable 28 22
Undecided/DK 44 41
Romney: Favorable 13% 28%
Not favorable 22 16
Undecided/DK 63 56
Thompson: Favorable 16% 32%
Not favorable 18 11
Undecided/DK 65 56
Huckabee: Favorable 7% 12%
Not favorable 10 9
Undecided/DK 82 79
This poll was conducted among a random sample of 1282 adults nationwide, interviewed by telephone October 12-16, 2007. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups is higher, CBS NEWS POLL The Republican Nomination Race October 12-16, 2007
Sample was of 1033 registered voters of which 319 were registered GOP primary voters
not a huge sample, but this poll is in line with many others out recently.
More questions at the end of the link
http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/CBSNews_poll_reps_101807.pdf
What do you get when you add McCain and Huckleberrys’ numbers to Freds?
A. A Rudy Loss
B. A mess at the convention.
I’ve not been paying much attention to the polling. No wonder the evangelical leaders have been so vocal about endorsing Romney. He has quite a bit of work to do to catch up with Giuliani.
Then it is pretty useless polling since Republican voters, not the public at large will chooses the nominee. So what they should run is head to head match ups and poll only Republican voters.
They did break out the republican primary results in the poll.
THE MSM WANTS TO CORONATE RUDY.
They have Giuliani, Thompson and McCain running 1-2-3. CBS would love for the choice to be between 3 cancer victims so that they could call Republicans the “Cancer Party”.
Giuliani has been courting the McCain voters often...McCain voters tend to be independents and moderates, I can see 75% of them breaking to Giuliani...
“THE MSM WANTS TO CORONATE RUDY.”
So he can lose to Hillary.
Let’s face it, conservative voters are not crazy about Rudy as a candidate. He’s too far left on most social issues. I hope I’m wrong, but my sense is that if Rudy gets the nomination, enough conservatives might stay home and hand a victory to Evita.
319 Republicans is much too small a sample to be accurate.
Huckabee does very well in Iowa, perhaps even winning. Enought to really damage Romney in NH and Michigan after all he has invested in Iowa.this potentially helps McCain and Guliani. Thompson and Huckabee are after the same voters.
Huckabee is just about tied for 2nd in a couple of new Iowa polls.
“What do you get when you add McCain and Huckleberrys’ numbers to Freds?”
That is part of the question. The other part is where do Romney’s votes go once he’s forced to concede?
Unless McCain pulls of some miraculous stumping in Iowa, he’s look at a 5th place finish.
What’s really interesting from the RCP pole is that Thompson and McCain’s poll numbers are tracking each other, which would indicate they are pulling from the same voter base so hopefully a McCain withdrawal goes directly to Fred.
We are not talking General Election. We are talking Primary voters. McCain is a resume Conservative. He has a lot of support simply based on what he went thru in Vietnam. Once they actually start narrowing the field, and think about voting, many of those voters are going to someone other then Rudy. The way to read this poll is "The Rudy Vote" and the Anti Rudy vote. Right now that vote is split and a lot of time and effort is being spent by the Republican Establishment in making Rudy inevitable so when those people move off their first choices they automatically go to Rudy. There is no guarantee of that happening
What I see in the RCP poll is Romney and McCain trading from each other. Maybe Huckabee picking up from Thompson.
Again,I think if Huckabee does very well in Iowa, you’ll see a lot of Romney support quickly evaporate. McCain will probably not do very well in Iowa, so his support goes somewhere else as well.
this is CBS too.
hard to take seriously.
however.
No Guiliani = NO PROBLEM.
Rush was on Glen Beck and just said he would choose between Guiliani, Thompson or Romney.
(you hear that 2nd and 3rd Tier?)
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