Posted on 10/18/2007 5:16:17 PM PDT by finnman69
October 12-16, 2007
Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani maintains his status as the most-preferred nominee among Republican primary voters nationwide. Former Senator Fred Thompson remains in second, slightly further behind Giuliani now than last month, and Senator John McCain's support is holding steady in third. Mike Huckabee, included in the choices in this poll for the first time, gets 4%.
REPUBLICAN CHOICE FOR THE NOMINATION
(Among Republican Primary Voters)
Now 9/07 8/07 7/07
Giuliani 29% 27% 38% 33%
Thompson 21 22 18 25
McCain 18 18 12 15
Romney 12 14 13 8
Huckabee 4 -- - - --
Giuliani leads among moderate primary voters, while Thompson leads among white evangelicals, a key GOP voting bloc. Among conservatives, Giuliani and Thompson are neck and neck at 24% each. McCain runs second among moderates behind Giuliani, and third among conservatives and white evangelicals.
KEY GROUPS: WHERE THE RACE STANDS
(Among Republican Primary Voters)
All Conservs. Moderates White Evangelicals
Giuliani 29% 24% 32% 26%
Thompson 21 24 18 29
McCain 18 16 23 15
Romney 12 14 10 7
Huckabee 4 5 2 6
However, Giuliani's backers have growing reservations about their candidate. Today six in ten of his backers like him but have their doubts; in August more described their support as strongly in favor of him.
STRENGTH OF CANDIDATE SUPPORT
(Among Republican Primary Voters)
Giuliani supporters All GOP voters
Now 8/07 Now 8/07
Strongly favor 30% 47% 40% 47%
Have reservations 60 45 50 43
Dislike others 7 7 7 8
27% of Republican primary voters would definitely vote for Giuliani in the general election in 2008 if he became the Republican Party’s presidential nominee, while 11% say they definitely will not vote for him. Among white evangelicals, those who say they would definitely vote for him (18%) are fewer than those who say they definitely would not (22%). Most voters – including most Republican primary voters and most white evangelicals – say they would either consider voting for him or that it is too early to say.
IF GIULIANI WON THE REPUBLICAN NOMINATION, WOULD YOU…? (Among registered voters)
All GOP prim White
voters voters Evangelicals
Definitely vote for him 10% 27% 18%
Consider voting for him 26 36 27
Definitely not vote for him 29 11 22
Too early to say 34 26 32
18% of Democrats would at least consider voting for Giuliani, while most of them, 51%, definitely would not. 33% of Independents would at least consider voting for him. Only 24% of Independents definitely would not. All the major candidates for the Republican nomination are seen positively by Republican primary voters, although Giuliani is the only one with a net favorable rating from registered voters overall. Many voters have yet to make up their minds, particularly when it comes to Thompson, Romney, and Huckabee.
ASSESSING THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES
(Among registered voters)
All GOP Prim voters
Giuliani: Favorable 35% 48%
Not favorable 27 20
Undecided/DK 37 32
McCain: Favorable 27% 37%
Not favorable 28 22
Undecided/DK 44 41
Romney: Favorable 13% 28%
Not favorable 22 16
Undecided/DK 63 56
Thompson: Favorable 16% 32%
Not favorable 18 11
Undecided/DK 65 56
Huckabee: Favorable 7% 12%
Not favorable 10 9
Undecided/DK 82 79
This poll was conducted among a random sample of 1282 adults nationwide, interviewed by telephone October 12-16, 2007. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups is higher, CBS NEWS POLL The Republican Nomination Race October 12-16, 2007
The contest might get interesting if Fred actually got out there and campaigned.
Is it any wonder they want Rudi-Tutti as the GOP nominee? They know that he cannot win - it won't take many Conservative Christian voters to refuse to vote for him to come up short. Just think about how close the last couple of elections have been - and that has been with a Pro-life, pseudo-conservative GW running. Rudi is a raving liberal...
That is an interesting point, it is going to be hard pressed for delegates of a conservative for vote for Rudy.
I don’t think the McCain supporters are that conservative, they could go either way.
So then we end up with a nannystate soft on illegals republican (which I thought conservatives were supposed to abhor) instead of a soft on abortion & gun rights republican (which I thought conservatives were supposed to abhor).
The reason I’m willing to support a Rudy candidacy is because I recognize the reality that there is no viable candidate out there who fits the entire bill, and Huckabee appears to be like Bush, and he hasn’t worked out so well, so I’m willing to give someone of a different type a chance. I’m willing to take Rudy at his word regarding judges. If he were to lie about that, why not just lie and say he’s seen the light re: abortion?
Anyhow, it’s almost getting boring discussing it.
You left out the landslide numbers of Ron Paul. :)
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/10/18/opinion/polls/main3383010.shtml
Giuliani's backers have growing reservations about their candidate, however. Today, 60 percent say they have their doubts, up from 45 percent in August. Thirty percent strongly favor the former New York City mayor, down from 47 percent two months ago.
Rudy’s support is soft and getting softer. When it comes to pointing out his liberalism, there are so many targets and so much ammo, you really don’t know where to start. Just mention it softly like Fred already has and his supports starts to waver. When the comparison ads go up in earnest, Guiliani’s big “lead” is going to deflate like a punctured balloon.
I did not leave it out, it’s posted in the article.
Fred who?
another Iowa poll out today with Huckabee doing very well
Below are the results of a three-day poll in the state of Iowa. Results are based on telephone interviews with 600 likely Republican cacus goers and 600 likely Democratic cacus goers, aged 18+, and conducted October 12-14, 2007. The margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.
http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/iowa_poll_101807.htm
Mitt Romney 27%; Rudy Giuliani 13%; Mike Huckabee 12%; Fred Thompson 10%; John McCain 5%; Sam Brownback 4%; Ron Paul 4%; Tom Tancredo 2%; Duncan Hunter 1%; Undecided 22%
“The other part is where do Romney’s votes go once he’s forced to concede?”
I’d say split 70/30 Thompson/Guiliani....maybe the convention won’t be such a mess after all.
I think that goes to Thompson. I believe that John will give his concession then follow that with an endorsement of his good buddy.
“You left out the landslide numbers of Ron Paul. :)”
I figure that will go to Cynthia McKinnie.
Registered voters instead of primary voters, and a small sample size (319, which yields a 5% margin of error) makes this poll pretty iffy to start with. Since no candidate has shown significant movement since the previous poll and the fairly large MOE, it's pretty safe to say that this poll tells us next to nothing.
I also don't buy that conservatives are split evenly between Giuliani and Thompson -- this flies in the face of every other poll I've seen.
http://www.galluppoll.com/content/?ci=28828
Conservative Republicans N=1,131
Giuliani 30 Thompson 23 McCain 15 Romney 10
Registered republicans and “republican-leaning” independents, not likely primary voters.
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