People keep ignoring delegates. The RealClearPolitics averages of polls show:
Mitt wins IA, NH, and probably MI. He's campaigning hard in SC, and could possibly take that. Then he's finished, unless a "bandwagon" momentum suddenly appears.
Rudy is way ahead in FL, competitive in SC, and will get some delegates from both IA and NH. Then Super Tuesday hits and all the huge delegate counts come in for him, except AZ.
The dirty little secret is that McCain is polling better against Hillary in KY, KS, MI, OH, WA, (and, I think) VA than Rudy (barely) and far better than Fred.
So I keep asking, where will Fred get his delegates? He not only needs wins in SC and MI, but #2 finishes in IA, NH, just to make it to Super Tuesday.
Interesting. I’m not up on the mechanics of all this. When you say he NEEDS second place in IA and NH, etc, to make it to Super Tuesday, do you mean he literally MUST? Do you get elimated without getting a certain number of delegates along the way?
Mitt will have the Iowa, NH momentum. Rudy should have a strong NH, Florida win, and other big states to follow.
Even a solid middle of the road win in all of the states is good for McCain because he will have the staying power, so Fred must have a very, very strong showing in SC to keep it going.
Am I right that Georgia also splits their delegates more than others? Or am I thinking of one of the other southern states that Fred is hanging his hat on.
1980 IOWA - GHWB over Reagan.1988 IOWA - Bob Dole over Pat Robertson. GHWB 3rd.
1996 NH - Pat Buchanan over Bob Dole.
2000 NH - John McCain over GWB.
“Umm, honesty? For Fred to ONLY have a 19 point lead over a northeasterner in Georgia is pretty sad.”
Maybe you don’t understand the South very well. And it’s still an eight man field. 41% of the vote is scattered among the others and undecided. 39% to 20% is a huge lead, twice the support of Giuliani. Can you show us states where Giuliani doubles the support of the #2.
“So I keep asking, where will Fred get his delegates?”
People also need to start asking: Where will Rudy get his electoral votes in November of 2008 if he’s the nominee. The fantasy of all these blue states he’ll win is more likely to be a reality of all the close red states he stands to lose.
Wow. That reminds me of a PBS global warming special this past spring where the very first sentence was, "The output of the sun is a constant." I knew I didn't need to watch further.
CA isn't a winner-take-all state this time around. While Rudy polls well here, he won't take the whole pie. With 173 delegates, it is the big fish of super Tuesday. I also note you call CT (30), NJ (52), and PA (in April with 74) as telling states. There are several states with as many or more delegates than those. How do you see NV (34), AL (48), AK (29), AR (34), CO (46), GA (72), IL (70), etc.
It isn't such a lock for Guiliani on Feb. 5 as conventional wisdom would have it.