Posted on 11/10/2007 12:37:49 PM PST by Canticle_of_Deborah
This will be your last vote for a Republican for anything??? And that would be because??
You always spoil the fun of the anti-Freds.....:)
Wow! A two man race. I think Mitt does look like the one who can knock out Rudy. I hope people wake up before it is too late.
You left out the main point, and recap, which is given the above information an intelligent person would say that they are 99.9% BS.
But good post!
I will vote for Hunter too. I also suspect a lot more will also. He is the true conservative and I am sick of our country’s elites trying to fix these elections.
Thanks for posting this.
B4DH.
Here’s a very recent poll showing Hunter at 4%.
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/28889/republicans_2008_giuliani_28_thompson_19
Here’s an intrade link to the forum site discussing how Hunter might be gaining traction.
http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1797.page
Here’s one showing Fred at 6%, and discussing why.
http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1805.page
One thing prediction markets are better at — their only bias is whether someone can make money trading the futures contracts.
The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets
The Liberty Papers ^ | November 8, 2007 | Brad Warbiany
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts
Posted on 11/08/2007 12:21:43 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum
Fred has lost ~30 points at Intrade over the last few weeks, looks like it’s stabilizing at ~6%.
Thompson Tanking in Futures Markets (Intrade, IEM)
Intrade; Iowa Electronic Markets ^ | October 31, 2008
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1919127/posts
Oh, now Intrade is bogus. Show us your post dismissing the signicance of Intrade on this thread:
Thought so. Fred doing well on Intrade = Intrade good. Fred tanking = Intrade bad.
Can I steal that one, like I stole the other one and put it on the other thread?
This thread:
The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets
The Liberty Papers ^ | November 8, 2007 | Brad Warbiany
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts
Posted on 11/08/2007 12:21:43 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum
His strategy may hold together. In my view the election continues to look wide-open -- the primary campaign has been very unpredictable so far, and I expect that to continue.
However, looking at past trends, if I were in Romney's campaign I would be concerned about the return on investment he's getting even in primary states where he's ahead.
For example, Bush spent an estimated $750,000 on the Iowa straw polls in 1999. Forbes reportedly spent a couple million. Bush ended up with 7,418 votes (31%); Forbes had 4,921 (21% of the votes); Dole had 14%; Gary Bauer had 9%; and Buchanan had 7%.
In contrast, Romney reportedly spent several million on the straw poll (massively outspending his rivals), and most of his GOP competition did not participate. Logically, Romney should have done *much* better than Bush did in 2000, given that Bush was dealing with very active competion in the straw poll and had been outspent. Yet Romney got only got 31% of the vote with little competition and a huge spending advantage. Worse, the number of votes, 4,516, was not even as many as second-place Forbes was able to win in 2000.
But, the straw poll was back in August; Romney's camp must be happy that he's maintained his lead in Iowa.
However, comparing Romney's current numbers to Bush's in November of 2000, it becomes clear that Romney's lead is far below what he might hope for historically. In November 2000, Bush was polling at 49% in Iowa; Bush led Forbes by 29 points, again despite being outspent.
On the other hand, Romney has a huge spending advantage in Iowa, yet RCP average shows Romney at 29%, 14 points ahead of Huckabee who has very little money. The latest Iowa Rasmussen poll has Romney only six points ahead of Thompson and seven points ahead of Huckabee, despte the fact that Thompson has been in the race less than 10 weeks and Huckabee has funding challenges.
In a nutshell, absolutely Romney and his folks have got to be glad he's leading in states where he's spent a lot of money. But digging deeper, they must be concerned that he's not doing a lot better compared to past trends. Time will tell.
I still have to get over to your interesting thread — I want to do a compare and contrast between polls and futures markets so we can analyze it. I’ll post it there!
I see that I pinged you over at this other thread and you didn’t bother.
If you have a better unbiased indicator, we’d all like to hear it, and especially to show how its performance has beaten trading markets like Intrade.
The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets
The Liberty Papers ^ | November 8, 2007 | Brad Warbiany
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts
Posted on 11/08/2007 12:21:43 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum
We were apparently typing to eachother at the same time.
It would be good to have this discussion, whether on that thread or this one. I’m hoping to aggregate it on that thread because the title is more generic.
Yes, Yes, - Guliani will make an excellent VP under Clinton.
> Thompson Tanking in Futures Markets (Intrade, IEM)
Intrade; Iowa Electronic Markets ^ | October 31, 2008 <
2008? I’m a great believer in futures markets and the like. But I never suspected they were THAT prescient!
If you could ping me to that when you post it, I’d greatly appreciate it. :)
All this means is that Fred isn’t getting the coverage of Rudy and Romney and the “free press” has decided they prefer a horse race and have picked the two north east liberals because they hate the GOP and want to reshape it in their image and this year it just might work.
There’s something to that. If you line up all the GOP candidates and say, well, I’m the MSM and I want to shape the republican party into the image that I want it to be. So I’m going to prop up a cross-dressing open borders liberal, a Mormon flipflopper, a certified whacko nutcase former POW RINO, and a certified whacko nutcase libertarian who wouldn’t even vote for a republican. I’m not going to uphold any social conservative, so it will be Duncan Who? and Tanking Tancredo and only bad press about the hollywood hopeful.
That’s a thread here on FR, so maybe the mods should fix it... but that’s a pretty good catch ;-)
Bttt!
Those markets are less liquid than a subprime CDO.
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