Posted on 11/10/2007 12:37:49 PM PST by Canticle_of_Deborah
Fred Thompson's campaign for president has collapsed.
Well, at least, among the bookies.
I've been giving readers regular updates on the betting in the presidential election, but absolutely nothing has been more dramatic this fall than Thompson's market meltdown. According to the betting at the Iowa Electronic Markets, the TV actor's chances of winning the GOP nomination have slumped in just six weeks from nearly 30% to less than 10%.
As recently as June, just after the former Senator announced he was running, he was the favorite in the betting, at nearly 40%.
The numbers are similar over at Dublin-based betting exchange InTrade. Thompson was at 35% in July. Today? 6%.
Credit the old Wall Street saw: Buy on the rumor, and sell on the news.
Before Thompson jumped into the race, conservative columnist George Will compared the anticipation to "Tulipmania." He questioned whether the Law & Order star really offered either the charisma, or the Mr. Conservative credentials, that his boosters claimed.
Maybe Thompson could never have matched the elevated expectations that greeted him. But his lackluster campaign and weak debate performances have brought him down to earth with a thump.
The betting now puts the Republican race between two people. The markets give Rudy Giuliani a 40% chance of winning the nomination, and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney a 30% chance.
(Excerpt) Read more at thestreet.com ...
I guess I’m just plain stupid, but will somebody please explain to me why Fred isn’t trouncing these as***les? I mean, let’s get real, he’s the only real conservative in the pack. He should creaming these guys! Why anybody would support Rudy over Fred or Mitt over Fred or anybody over Fred just blows my mind ! He’s the real deal, for Chr**t sake. He should be ahead by 20 points. I’m just flabbergasted at the whole thing.
Huckfillary
:-D
Fred wants to be pres, just doesnt want to run for pres?
Glad to see that you are realistic enought to realize that Fred is already in the coffin and it only remains to fuss over nailing down the lid.
LOL! My my you are sensitive.
I couldn't find my post on that thread, do you have a link directly to it? If I did post no doubt, being a Fredhead, I was happy about it as I would be happy to have Fred up in this most recent intrade report. But I doubt seriously that I posted that I thought Intrade was a good indicator of the ultimate outcome of an election. If I did then you got me......touche'
And even if you just handed me a "gotcha" that says nothing about the ability of Ellery to spoil the fun of the anti-Freds, repeatedly and with great eloquence....bwhahahahahahahahaha!
Now Plutarch, how about showing me my post eh?
There is a history behind that. The ONLY reason any of us were interested in Intrade was because some dingbat kept harassing us about it, and we got in our digs on him when Fred went up.
Fred shares would have been liquidated well before that, since the bet is who will win the nomination.
Still, I'm taking a strong long position on Fred, a weak long position on rest-of-field, neutral on Romney, and short on Giuliani and McCain. I don't think Fred is terribly likely to win, but I think he's got better than an 8% chance since there isn't any candidate who is unambiguously better.
***crickets***
Ahhh them Mittheads, just too easy....like shootin fish in a barrel....LOL!
We have the wit and wisdom of Ellery and they have the wit and wisdom of...well..er...hmmmm....well they have spunk anyway.
Don’t try to put a guilt trip on me whoever you are. I am trying my hardest to put a conservative on the ballot and you should too. If you vote rino you will be voting for Hillary too. And who says Hillary will be their nominee. A lot of people sure do listen to MSM; etc.
it’s hard to be a conservative and not consider what markets are telling us...unless you are Huckabee.
Either Fred has to pull off something completely unexpected or Mitt has to make a major mistake. Otherwise nothing will happen for fred...and I think we may have to cut our losses soon if we have any hope against rude E
of course the other twist is that this could be a self fulfilling prophecy
I checked, you didn't post on that thread. But Fredheads posted in their legions, woo hooing, Go Fred! spam, the whole deal. Yup, that's when Intrade was celebrated. Now, it is damn Intrade to hades. If Fred's contract should bounce back, once again it would be Intrade rocks!
Or to paraphase Shakespeare:
But Fredheads, proud Fredheads,
Seeing Fred lose a little authority,
Make such multiple explanations before Free Republic,
As would make Occam weep.
Whenever our party annoints a candidate in such a manner we end up with candidates like Bob Dole or Arnold Shwarzenegger.
All indications are the results this time will be the same.Sad, the democrats have put up such a weak field, with a principled candidate it would be a cakewalk for us.
If Rudy is nominated we.will.lose.to.Hillary.
The bookies know what’s what.
That sort of thinking gave us Billyjeff Clinton, and has an outside chance of giving us Hillarybob Clinton. In the Federalist, Madison, Hamilton and Jay described the sort of person who should not become President. It was someone "with talents for intrigue and the little arts of popularity." How many of the candidates in the 2008 race fit that description?
Congressman Billybob
Its a one man, one man questionable race. LOL
How'd that work out for Gene?
Which one’s which?
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