Rasmussen: Election 2008: Clinton vs. McCain & Romney

Rasmussen Reports ^ | November 11, 2007 | Michael Rasmussen

[Plutarch]

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Election 2008 shows Arizona Senator John McCain (R) leading New York Senator Hillary Clinton (D) by just two percentage points, 47% to 45% (see crosstabs). While the “lead” is statistically insignificant, it’s the first time since May that McCain has had any advantage over Clinton.

The election poll also found Clinton leading former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney 47% to 42%. But, Romney is gaining some ground on the Democratic frontrunner. Romney trailed Clinton by six in October, by nine in September, and by eleven in August.

With just one exception, the 42% figure is Romney’s highest total in ten match-ups with Clinton dating back to last December.

While Romney has gained ground recently, McCain’s numbers have been actually fairly steady. In October, Clinton was ahead of the Arizona Senator by just a single percentage point. In fact, this is the fifth straight Rasmussen Reports poll showing Clinton and McCain within two points of each other.

When matched against McCain, Clinton’s level of support has stayed between 44% and 47% in thirteen out of fifteen national election polls conducted by Rasmussen Reports. Once, she was a point above that range and once a point below (see history)...

[Plutarch]

The issue of electability has dogged Romney, with surveys showing him trailing Clinton by a larger figure than other Republican candidates. Now Rasmussen shows Romney closing on Clinton as people become more familiar with him. When the field eventually winnows down to Romney vs. Giuliani, there is no doubt that Romney is more conservative. If he is equally or more electable, then the rationale for Giuliani disappears entirely.

[tips up]

Is it me or are these polls getting tiring? Like predicting the weather for next April. Or the preseason college football polls. Many respectable polls contradict each other. Seems like a bunch of background noise at this point...

[Recovering Ex-hippie]

I think romney SHOULD discuss his Mormon religion. It is an underlying albatross for him. there are such strange histories with this religion....like many misconceptions people had of the Catholic church.

[Rick_Michael]

How would he do in key states e.g Florida, Ohio, New Mexico, Wisconsin, etc....?

[Tears of a Clown]

Yeah, but unfortunately the MSM gives these polls a lot of credence, and thus affect how a lot of people vote.

[Lancey Howard]

McCain? Is he still running? I thought he was banned from the Iowa debates because he’s a “second tier” candidate? Who runs polls and asks about McCain, anyway? I am so freakin confused....

[freespirited]

I think it basically comes down to whether a lot of the people who answer NO when asked if they would vote for a Mormon will say YES when asked about a specific Mormon named Mitt Romney.

The situation is no different than when pollsters ask “do you want a Democrat or Republican” to win the presidency next year. Asked generically the RATS get a big advantage over the GOP. Substitute Hillary for Democrat and most of that advantage disappears.

I wish I knew the answer to the first question. The extent of the concern with Mitt’s religion has been a big concern to me.

[Plutarch]

Is it me or are these polls getting tiring?

Well, FR is a political website, and polls are fodder for political discussion. The January 3rd Iowa caucus date is coming down on us like a screaming banshee. Have you noticed Christmas decorations at stores yet? That's how close it is.

Rasmussen released results for Thompson and Giuliani on Friday. Romney runs better than both.

Clinton 48% Giuliani 42%; Clinton 48% Thompson 42%

[Canticle_of_Deborah]

• Send FReep Mail to Unmarked Package to get [ON] or [OFF] the Mitt Romney Ping List •

[tips up]

What’s the best poll these days?

Xmas lights are already up. Way too early...

[CaptainK]

If he sweeps Iowa he should get a nice bump in the polls.

[JCEccles]

Many respectable polls contradict each other.

Not necessarily. Go to pollster.com and check out the charts. They combine the polls to generate single charts that yield very insightful numbers and trends.

What the combined polls are showing is a strong and significant trend of increasing support for Mitt Romney in the early state primaries. Fred Thompson's support, on the other hand peaked early and is dropping off.

Giuliani seems to have locked up a certain sector of the electorate in these states early and hasn't gained much more support over time.

[tips up]

Interesting. Combining the polls makes sense.

[CyberAnt]

Sorry .. but I’m not buying it!!

[Caipirabob]

These polls are liberal crap. There's NO WAY that McCain has any significant backing amongst conservatives or republicans.

I think the majority of candidates so far has been an attempt by the media to mislead republicans into nominating a "liberal light" candidate that hillary can slaughter in the election, be it by fraud or personal attacks.

Pick a conservative. Not rudymcromney, you'll just get burned if you do.

[Plutarch]

These polls are liberal crap.

Sorry .. but I’m not buying it!!

Um, this is a Rasmussen poll, Rasmussen is Free Republic's official favorite pollster. In this case, if you don't like the results, it won't do to blame the pollster.

[TheLion]

More good news! I said a long time ago around here that time favored Mitt’s candidacy. He will continue to rise as more people get familiar with him.

[George W. Bush]

I'm glad Mitt's hair looks more rested in this Mittpic. As you know, I've been worried that it had been looking a bit peak-ed lately.

As long as Mitt's hair keeps its strength up, he'll keep rising in the polls. LOL.

My point is, I keep being struck by how photogenic Mitt and the family are, how their outgoing wholesomeness is appealing, how Mitt shows real energy and stamina and good health, his drive to succeed, his ability to organize a large campaign in multiple states, his efforts to overcome resistance from a few on the Religious Right, etc..

Everything about politics or flipflopping or Mormonism aside, those are some pretty appealing qualities in any candidate.

I'm just saying when you're comparing horseflesh to horseflesh, Mitt looks like the purebred in the herd. That's not enough to make anyone vote for him. But you can't ignore it either when you realize how badly we need that indy vote to prevail in '08 and to have a chance to win the House back.

[tompster76]

Presidential races are always close and early polls like this do not tell much. Most people have never heard of Romney yet.

It is always fun to watch jaywalking on Jay Leno. There, Jay shows pictures of famous people (e.g. presidential candidates) to passersby who try to guess who it is in the picture. The results are quite depressing. They hardly know who is the sitting president but beyond that absolutely nothing. These people vote.

[bw17]

There is one consistent trend in the average of all of the polling data:

In all of the early primary states, Romney has been trending *UPWARD*.

Even on the national scene, where Romney is still just behind McCain, Romney’s numbers are trending upward.