Posted on 11/13/2007 9:09:41 AM PST by Ol' Sparky
Democrats court religious voters, but will they desert GOP? Tuesday, November 13, 2007 David Briggs Plain Dealer Religion Reporter
Republican presidential front-runner Rudy Giuliani is a dream opponent for Democrats, a person who takes the abortion issue off the table and encourages many "values voters" to stay home or turn to a third-party candidate.
Or the twice-divorced Giuliani could win despite his support of legalized abortion and gay rights, convincing economic and political conservatives within the GOP they can kick religious conservatives to the curb.
These scenarios are among those envisioned by scholars on religion and politics in advance of the 2008 election, which they say is turning out to be a referendum on both the religious right and left.
While Republicans worry about holding on to their religious base, any Democratic candidate who courts religious voters risks alienating the party's secular base and appearing unconvincing to a public that does not think the party cares about issues of faith, scholars say.
Is the religious right dying? Can Democrats fix their "religion problem"? Hang on.
"Isn't this fun?" Laura Olson, a Clemson University political scientist, said earlier this month in Tampa, Fla., at a meeting of the Society for the Scientific Study of Religion and the Religious Research Association. "We don't know what's going to happen."
The evidence so far suggests that Republicans are losing some of their edge. A national survey in October by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press found 55 percent of Republican white evangelicals would consider voting for a third-party candidate if the race was between Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Giuliani.
Unlike in 2004, when exit polls showed that 78 percent of white evangelicals voted for George Bush, only 67 percent of white evangelicals said they would vote for Giuliani in a race against Clinton. The Catholic percentage would be reversed in 2008; while Bush won 53 percent in 2004, Clinton is estimated to win 53 percent against Giuliani.
These numbers are not insignificant.
"You win elections at the margins," said Corwin Smidt, executive director of the Paul Henry Institute for the Study of Christianity and Politics at Calvin College in Grand Rapids, Mich. "To lose 5 percent or 10 percent of the evangelical vote has consequences."
Some loss could be expected, as Bush's story of turning his life around when he sought out God was compelling for evangelicals, scholars said.
Franklyn C. Niles, a political scientist at John Brown University in Siloam Springs, Ark., and Smidt also noted that younger evangelicals have a broader political agenda that includes issues such as the environment and hunger.
Still, many faithful are hardly racing to embrace Giuliani.
"With Giuliani, you just can't possibly spin" his story to appeal to religious voters, said J. Matthew Wilson, associate professor of political science at Southern Methodist University in Dallas. "A guy who had three wives. . . . He's pro-choice, pro-gay rights. That is a bridge too far."
Not that the Democrats will have an easy time picking up religious votes from the GOP.
The Pew survey found that 60 percent of evangelical Protestants supporting Giuliani said their ballot would be more a vote against Clinton than a vote for the former New York City mayor.
Scholars said Democrats have some openings to pick up religious voters. Connecting faith to social justice issues could appeal to potential swing voters such as mainline Protestants, Catholics and younger evangelicals.
They have zero percent chance of winning my vote unless they change about 100% of their political positions. I have no adverse feelings about the letter “D” or the title “Democrat.” It’s everything they stand for I reject. If they change their positions then sure I’ll vote for them. Since there is zero percent chance they will change there is zero percent change I will vote for them.
"Some of my best friends are religious!"
convincing economic and political conservatives within the GOP they can kick religious conservatives to the curb.
These scenarios are among those envisioned by scholars on religion and politics in advance of the 2008 election, which they say is turning out to be a referendum on both the religious right and left.
A this would not happen B)- most aren’t merely moral conservative or fiscal conservative they are Reaganites), B) Shut up this liberal author (and his dreams), c) they won’t win if we split the reagan coalition. d) Guiliani isn’t even truely a so called “fiscal conservative”. No real conservative support for him (only RINOS, liberals..)!
Last go-around many of the Freshman Dem winners ran on very conservative sounding platforms, then conveniently got a case of "jello-brains" and dutifully began toeing the party line.
SO WHAT???????
I suspect this is just another Lib MSM trying to derail
I know exactly what you mean and that same surperiority-toned comment bugs me too.
Democrat’s “courting” of religious voters will met with the same response that cat-calls and wolf whistles from a construction crew get.
It is not just that Rudy is (twice) divorced... it is more about the way he handled his personal life. He was having an affair while mayor and still married to his second wife, taking his mistress to public events, announcing his divorce to the press before telling his wife, etc... Newt would have the same problem if he ran.
Thompson is divorced and re-married, but that is not a big issue for most voters. He and his ex are on good terms, he didn't cheat on his ex while married to her, and in general has treated her with respect despite the fact that they are no longer married. That is one of the reasons his ex-wife is supporting Thompson for President.
The term “religious” is thrown around pretty regular today. A lot of people who say they believe in God do not read their bibles, pray, or fellowship with other believers on a regular basis to share their “faith”.
Those people will certainly be moved by the democrats, especially if they see no real difference between the democrats and the GOP on social issues.
Anyone that doubts me needs to explain why Ted Kennedy is a US Senator. Yes, he gets votes from “religious” people.
Just as CarVILE figured out awhile ago, the Democrats can get Reagan Democrats and former Reagan Democrats turned Republican to return to the fold and vote their pocketbook instead of their values if the the social issues are negated in a race, or the Democrat runs to the right of a Republican on them.
Rudy v. Hillary = PA and WV both vote solidly blue and no need to waste $ contesting them. Probably plenty of other places like VA too, from what I've read.
I’d say that religious conservatives will be just about as taken in by this sham as NRA members were when Kerry borrowed a shotgun and pretended to be a hunter. Which is to say, not at all.
It should to any conservative with a brain. A man's character matters when he is taking positions that contradict his record.
Promises mean nothing from a low-life that would parade his mistress out in public while alienating his own children.
But, I guess we've gone from character mattering for Bill Clinton back in 1992 to not mattering at all if the candidate is a Republican.
That’s NOT my (and other conservatives’) only Issue with Rudy!..
Ah, yes, typical Democrats.
Wherever there’s a potential vote to be found . . .
Ever wonder what the political affiliation is of the majority of atheists, agnostics, new agers, ACLU/separationists types?
Therein lies your answer about faith and the Democratic Party.
Well, I'm not what anyone would call a Christian, but I vote Republican. Next question.
Guiliani is bending over backwards in my view to placate Christians. He is in no way, manner, or form "kicking" Christians to the curb.
Anyone who seriously believes the dims have a shot at the Christian right are out and out stupid.
Why any conservative would want to vote for a man with a liberal record and no character is a mystery to me. It's no different than voting for Bill Clinton if he were running as a Republican.
Surely you're not advocating a third party pro-life ticket are you?
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