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Giuliani Slipping (Gallup Poll: RG 28, FT 19, JM 13, MR 12, MH 10)
The National Review ^ | November 16, 2007 | Byron York

Posted on 11/16/2007 11:26:30 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet

A new Gallup poll of the national Republican race shows Rudy Giuliani's support slipping to its lowest level since before he entered the race. The survey of self-identified Republicans and Republican leaners has Giuliani leading the GOP contest with 28 percent – down from 34 percent in the Gallup survey taken two weeks ago. Fred Thompson is second with 19 percent, John McCain is third with 13 percent, Mitt Romney is fourth with 12 percent, and Mike Huckabee is fifth with ten percent.

Giuliani's support reached its highest point in Gallup polls, 49 percent, in March. In the months since, it has moved around in the mid- to low-30s range. Of the other candidates, McCain is down a bit from recent Gallup polls, while Huckabee's ten percent is three points higher than it has ever been before. Finally, Ron Paul is at five percent, which matches his previous high point, reached last month.


TOPICS: Breaking News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008; 2008polls; abortion; byronyork; caucuses; conservatism; conservatives; election; electionpresident; elections; endorsements; fred; fred08dotcom; fredthompson; galluppoll; gop; mikehuckabee; mittromney; nrlc; nrtl; primaries; prolife; republicans; rinorudy; rudygiuliani; thompson; whitehouse
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Guess that NRLC endorsement did help Fred.
1 posted on 11/16/2007 11:26:31 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

His advertisements on the FNC are probably helping too.


2 posted on 11/16/2007 11:31:29 AM PST by normy (Don't hit at all if it is honorably possible to avoid hitting; but never hit soft.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 398 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, aged 18 and older, conducted Nov. 11-14, 2007. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±5 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.


3 posted on 11/16/2007 11:35:17 AM PST by Petronski (Willardcare abortions $50 each, $25 per twin. Ask for S&H Stamps!)
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To: Petronski
These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 398 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents

Which is exactly why I give all these polls ZERO consideration.

4 posted on 11/16/2007 11:39:19 AM PST by calcowgirl ("Liberalism is just Communism sold by the drink." P. J. O'Rourke)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
This race is wide open. All Candidates have their positives and negatives. My guess is a brokered convention.
5 posted on 11/16/2007 11:42:31 AM PST by 11th Commandment
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

So many polls, so many different takes on them. The good news is the polls will be meaningless shortly. As for Fred, just keep fighting, keep pushing forward.


6 posted on 11/16/2007 11:45:40 AM PST by mainerforglobalwarming
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The poll covered Nov 11-14. I don’t know how much the NRTL endorsement can be figured into the results.

Still, its good news for Fred and bad news for Rooty.


7 posted on 11/16/2007 12:08:40 PM PST by Reagan Man (FUHGETTABOUTIT Rudy....... Conservatives don't vote for liberals!)
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To: 11th Commandment

Who exactly do you think would be the brokers?


8 posted on 11/16/2007 1:14:44 PM PST by iowamark
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Fred’s surge has begun.


9 posted on 11/16/2007 1:15:09 PM PST by RockinRight (Just because you're pro-life and talk about God a lot doesn't mean you're a conservative.)
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To: RockinRight
"Fred's surge has begun."

Just don't expect to hear about it in the media like the Mike "Open borders for Jesus" Huckabee surgelette.

10 posted on 11/16/2007 1:21:13 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (Your "dirt" on Fred is about as persuasive as a Nancy Pelosi Veteran's Day Speech)
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To: RockinRight
Yes, the tide has turned. It's been a good week for Fred, a bad one for Mitt.

Keep an eye on Iowa, where Fred has committed a boatload of money to advertising.

11 posted on 11/16/2007 1:22:21 PM PST by eastsider
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Interesting. The only real difference between this poll and today's RAS poll is that Fred is a strong 2nd in the GALLUP poll - as opposed to being in an essential 4-way tie for 2nd in RAS.

Which is a reversal in Fred's polling trend. It seems that all this year, Fred has polled stronger on RAS than any of the other polls. Now we see Fred polling better on Gallup than RAS.

Does it really mean anything?

12 posted on 11/16/2007 1:23:47 PM PST by rhinohunter (Thompson/Steele '08)
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To: eastsider

Rudy and Mitt are about to meet a brick wall named Fred.


13 posted on 11/16/2007 1:27:08 PM PST by RockinRight (Just because you're pro-life and talk about God a lot doesn't mean you're a conservative.)
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To: rhinohunter

Today, no...but let’s see what the next week brings.


14 posted on 11/16/2007 1:27:36 PM PST by RockinRight (Just because you're pro-life and talk about God a lot doesn't mean you're a conservative.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Should read “Thompson closing in on crossdresser”


15 posted on 11/16/2007 1:31:21 PM PST by RockinRight (Just because you're pro-life and talk about God a lot doesn't mean you're a conservative.)
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To: rhinohunter
I think we can expect to see Fred polling stronger on both polls [and others]. A lot of his ducks are finally lining up in a row. The flood of "Fred is lazy" articles seems to be falling off and stories are regularly hitting the wires containing the substance of his positions and his focus of his campaign. His ads are ramping up and he’s going to get continuous and growing attention from his NRLC endorsement. Things are looking up.
16 posted on 11/16/2007 1:40:07 PM PST by Route66 (America's Main Street - - - President Fred D. Thompson /"The Constitution means what is says.")
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To: rhinohunter

RAS is a tighter poll, of people really paying attention.

Gallup and Fox polls are cr8p, they are polling people who will never vote in the primary.


17 posted on 11/16/2007 1:48:02 PM PST by WOSG (Pro-life, pro-family, pro-freedom, pro-strong defense, pro-GWOT, pro-capitalism, pro-US-sovereignty)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Fred Thompson ‘08!


18 posted on 11/16/2007 1:54:39 PM PST by PreciousLiberty
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

To be straight here, how does Freds’ number look at Rasmussen? Because that is the one that we’ve been touting this whole time, and frankly I’ve never put much stock into Gallup.


19 posted on 11/16/2007 1:58:22 PM PST by Grunthor (Liberals need to be reminded that The Holy Bible is more than just Godís opinion.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

“Just don’t expect to hear about it in the media like the Mike “Open borders for Jesus” Huckabee surgelette.”

I actually saw what looked to be families walking around Lacey, Wa (Olympia Junior) this morning with Huckabee ballons and t-shirts and picket signs.

In a state this liberal, he’s about as conservative as the people will support.


20 posted on 11/16/2007 2:01:57 PM PST by Grunthor (Liberals need to be reminded that The Holy Bible is more than just Godís opinion.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Wait, haven’t we seen articles in the last week saying...
Senator Thompson is finished,
Governor Romney is a Shoe-In,
Mayor Guliani is cooked,
Governor Huckabee has taken control of the race...

I’m so so confused .. sigh.


21 posted on 11/16/2007 2:02:36 PM PST by BlueNgold (Feed the Tree .....)
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To: Grunthor
Today's Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll has Thompson, Romney and Huckabee tied at 12%.
22 posted on 11/16/2007 2:03:33 PM PST by eastsider
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To: eastsider

That is, in my estimation, most decidedly NOT a good thing.


23 posted on 11/16/2007 2:04:22 PM PST by Grunthor (Liberals need to be reminded that The Holy Bible is more than just Godís opinion.)
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To: 11th Commandment

“This race is wide open. All Candidates have their positives and negatives. My guess is a brokered convention.”

My guess is that Thompson takes every southern state with the exception of Florida, and then selects a Veep from one of the other nominees not-named-Rudy.


24 posted on 11/16/2007 2:12:49 PM PST by DesScorp
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

“Just don’t expect to hear about it in the media like the Mike “Open borders for Jesus” Huckabee surgelette.”

Oh man, that’s good! I’m gonna steal that and make of logo of some kind. Awesome....”Open Borders For Jesus”....I like it! The perfect anti-Huck slogan!


25 posted on 11/16/2007 2:14:38 PM PST by DesScorp
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

McCain seems to be surging of late. I think his mom has really brought him back from the dead.


26 posted on 11/16/2007 2:16:57 PM PST by montag813
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To: Grunthor

Fasten your seatbelt, FRiend : )


27 posted on 11/16/2007 2:19:29 PM PST by eastsider
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To: calcowgirl

“and Republican-leaning independents “

TRANSLATION: Liberal Dems who would LOVE to see JulieAnnie on the Republican Ticket even though they have no intention of voting for him. Just having him there is assurance that if Hilldebeast doesn’t make it, another lib will.


28 posted on 11/16/2007 2:21:27 PM PST by ZULU (Non nobis, non nobis Domine, sed nomini tuo da gloriam. God, guts and guns made America great.)
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To: RockinRight

LOL!


29 posted on 11/16/2007 2:22:24 PM PST by trisham (Zen is not easy. It takes effort to attain nothingness. And then what do you have? Bupkis.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
With Huckabee rising in the polls, Rudy's support would be slipping. Mitt is on the rise too, so I think that's where some of Rudy's votes have gone.

WatchingHillary.com


30 posted on 11/16/2007 2:28:09 PM PST by GaryLee1990 (www.WatchingHillary.com)
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To: RockinRight; trisham
Should read “Thompson closing in on crossdresser”

"Rudy Breaks a Heel in Dash to Nomination"

"Fred Tugging at Rudy's Skirt"

31 posted on 11/16/2007 2:29:00 PM PST by rogue yam
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To: calcowgirl
Which is exactly why I give all these polls ZERO consideration.

The national polls are interesting, but the only ones that really matter right now are the early primary states. If the current polls hold, Romney wins Iowa and New Hampshire, then we'll see what happens in South Carolina where polls seem to be all over the map. Beyond SC, Rudy leads in Florida, Nevada and Michigan, California, PA, and New Jersey, but Romney is close in a few of those states. He'll need to pick off at least a couple to reverse Rudy's momentum.

32 posted on 11/16/2007 2:33:42 PM PST by imdref
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To: DesScorp
Yes, but that scenario is exactly what Rudy is counting on because with it he wins.

Every Southern State without Florida, and with Rudy taking the NE, California, and assorted other states, equals a Rudy tooty, fresh and fruity, GOP nomination.

33 posted on 11/16/2007 2:34:52 PM PST by bill1952 ("all that we do is done with an eye towards something else." - Aristotle)
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To: calcowgirl

100% correct.


34 posted on 11/16/2007 2:45:00 PM PST by savedbygrace (SECURE THE BORDERS FIRST (I'M YELLING ON PURPOSE))
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To: 11th Commandment
intriguing but unlikely. IIRC there has not been RNC or DNC convention that was not decided on the first ballot since the nationwide TV network got their old on the electorate.
35 posted on 11/16/2007 2:55:15 PM PST by TeleStraightShooter (The Right To Take Life is NOT a Constitutional "Liberty" protected by the 14th Amendment)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Looks like DH is getting nowhere. That’s depressing because I find the rest between uninspiring and terribly flawed. Looks like I’ll be casting an unenthusiastic vote (once again) in just under a year. The good news is that I can always find good congressional and/or senate candidates to support in some fashion.


36 posted on 11/16/2007 3:04:50 PM PST by MSF BU
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To: rhinohunter

Rass is a robo poll I believe. That means it takes a few days for a change to register in the poll. Ex. Friday’s polling showing up on Monday. It’s a running average, like RCP’s. We’ll know in a few days if any bump occured for Thompson in Rass just for the endorsement of the NRTL alone.

I’ll admit the Gallop poll surprises me a bit.

I’m not really looking for a bump as a result of the endorsement. It may happen, but what I suspect it will do (and needs to do) is stop the hemorraging. If it does that, it means they’ll have 3-4 weeks to campaign their butts off along with the help of the NRTL’s membership (the real reason the endorsement is a big help is the colaition they bring into the equasion). A momentary bump in the polls isn’t what I want. I want to see if their membership responds to the coming mailings, commercials, phone calls and door to door soldiers I expect to be amping up.


37 posted on 11/16/2007 3:08:55 PM PST by Soul Seeker
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To: bill1952

“Every Southern State without Florida, and with Rudy taking the NE, California, and assorted other states, equals a Rudy tooty, fresh and fruity, GOP nomination”

That would be a valid strategy....if Rudy locked up the rest of the nation. He wont. He’ll split New England with Romney, and he’ll lose most of the midwest to Romney. He might get California, but he might also lose that to McCain. As it stands, I think Thompson has the potential to garner the most primary votes as a block with his southern strategy. When all is said and done, Rudy might actually come in third place in terms of primary states he wins.


38 posted on 11/16/2007 3:10:06 PM PST by DesScorp
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Right now I think Fred is my guy - However Rudy and shockingly McCain I feel could do the job as well.

It is going to be near impossible to replace our current CinC......But are base needs to come together Nov 08 and make certain we do not allow the ilk of the Democrat leadership in power, in the position of CinC of this great nation, at this current time in history.

39 posted on 11/16/2007 3:11:00 PM PST by SevenMinusOne
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

So Rudy has almost a ten point lead nationally.

If the article said anything else, nothing was as important.


40 posted on 11/16/2007 3:11:21 PM PST by Senator Goldwater
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To: DesScorp

I like that scenario.
I don’t see Romney being that strong, but I can see how that Fred might come out on top if he is.


41 posted on 11/16/2007 3:20:47 PM PST by bill1952 ("all that we do is done with an eye towards something else." - Aristotle)
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To: DesScorp

Don’t count Fred out in the Midwest.


42 posted on 11/16/2007 3:59:08 PM PST by Frank L
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

All bad news for Rudi is good news for conservatives, even more for so-cons.


43 posted on 11/16/2007 4:05:12 PM PST by George W. Bush (Apres moi, le deluge.)
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To: DesScorp

My guess is that Thompson takes every southern state with the exception of Florida, and then selects a Veep from one of the other nominees not-named-Rudy.

I would suspect that he better take more than the south or is that enough? Conservatives do believe that the South is all we need but I just think we need more to win the entire thing. Do Fred only need five states to win????


44 posted on 11/16/2007 4:06:59 PM PST by napscoordinator
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To: Senator Goldwater

I saw where your son endorsed Ron Paul. He was read the riot act by a couple of people.


45 posted on 11/16/2007 4:11:56 PM PST by Eric Blair 2084 (Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms shouldn't be a federal agency...it should be a convenience store.)
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To: TitansAFC

Here’s a good news thread for the StopRudy ping list.

....................................................

Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
Self ^ | 11/11/07 | Kevmo

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts
Posted on 11/15/2007 3:43:17 AM PST by Kevmo


46 posted on 11/16/2007 4:18:21 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq ó via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: 11th Commandment

I’m hoping this goes to the convention and Duncan Hunter gets the nomination on the 59th ballot.


47 posted on 11/16/2007 4:36:24 PM PST by Rockitz (This isn't rocket science- Follow the money and you'll find the truth.)
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To: FreeInWV; 383rr; abishai; Afronaut; airborne; Alberta's Child; Alice in Wonderland; Antonious; ...

ping


48 posted on 11/16/2007 5:01:41 PM PST by TitansAFC ("My 80% enemy is not my 20% friend" -- Common Sense)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
I prefer Hunter (who’s that many may ask). Good to here that rudy is losing his star appeal though.
49 posted on 11/16/2007 5:06:04 PM PST by kinoxi
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To: kinoxi

here = hear when my fingers are working properly.


50 posted on 11/16/2007 5:06:52 PM PST by kinoxi
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