Skip to comments.U.S. report finds U.S. intel consistently wrong on China buildup
Posted on 11/21/2007 10:42:53 AM PST by maddog55
A congressional commission on China reported last week that U.S. intelligence agencies have failed to properly assess Beijing's military buildup and capabilities and were taken by surprise on key developments, including new submarines built in secret.
The pace and success of Chinas military modernization continue to exceed U.S. government estimates, stated the annual report of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission.
Indeed, on occasion the U.S. defense and intelligence communities have been taken by surprise, as in the case of the launching of the Jin class submarine by the navy of the Peoples Liberation Army.
The criticism was a slap at pro-China U.S. intelligence officials, including Thomas Fingar, deputy director of national intelligence for analysis, National Intelligence Officer for East Asia Lonnie Henley, a protégé of convicted China spy Ronald Montaperto, and Dennis Wilder, a CIA official who is now the National Security Council staff senior director for Asia.
Several Chinese advances have surprised U.S. defense and intelligence officials, and raised questions about the quality of our assessments of Chinas military capabilities, the commission report said.
China also could launch up to 10 new Shang-class nuclear attack submarines by next year.
The Jin submarine, also known as the Type 094, is a new class of ballistic missile submarine. It was first photographed in the water in late 2006 moored in Xiaopingdao Submarine Base.
The submarine is believed to be equipped with 12 advanced JL-2 SLBMs with a range of about 8,000 kilometers.
Chinas defense industry is producing new generations of weapons platforms with impressive speed and quality, and these advancements are due in part to the highly effective manner in which Chinese defense companies are integrating commercial technologies into military systems, the report said.
Industrial espionage provides Chinese companies an added source of new technology without the necessity of investing time or money to perform research.
Calling Nada Nadim Prouty. Please pick up the red courtesy phone.
As somebody who was around when Nixon opened the door I could see this coming
DETENTE was another screwup
Him and Kissinger were foreign policy idiots
It may be simplistic, but my understanding is that CIA really missed
the implosion of the USSR and the fall of the Berlin Wall.
No suprise if our intelligence operatives (despite the good ones that
labor in dangerous, unsung roles) would miss the build up of another menace.
I just hope we at least have some good intell that percolates out into
the public consciousness.
Like the leakers in the British military that let Churchill know that
the British were NOT keeping up with the Germans in the years preceding
Re: Nixon and Kissinger being foreign policy idiots. This is the usual mistake of confusing stupidity with evil, repeated so often on this forum . . . There is an agenda to push world government, and those pushing it are not stupid, they are evil (I’m not sure Nixon fell into this category, but Kissinger surely does).
I don’t know if you saw this but it’s pretty bad when DOD officials simply shrug their shoulders when asked who is manufacturing our military parts and equipment.
That site has consistantly NOT underestimated what the Chinese are doing.
...and this next site, let's folk know what the dangerous possibiliies are of letting it continue unchecked.
Government could function with only 50% of their current staffing AND if it could eliminate pc-ism and political patronage. BUT, I guess it is easier and more satisfying to continue to believe in the tooth ferry.
Real leaders are politically destroyed and incompetent wimps are encouraged by our present system. We are decaying within from and the stench is now noticable.
Our continuing Trade Deficit with China is just paying for their military. They bring their crap into the country, because it’s manufactured cheaply and take the monies to build that military.
These morons all need to be fired and replaced by any number of FReepers who have been watching China’s build-up with alarm, most notably, our pard Jeff Head. He’s been saying this for years, and now we find out that our wonderful government is surprised???? Where have they been?
Delivering a dozen nuclear attack submarines in a single year seems fast, perhaps a little too fast for the Chinese.
Given the close defense business relationship between the Chinese and Russian governments (e.g., the Chinese have the money and the Russians have the systems), is there any possibility that Russian shpyards are building and delivering these submarines covertly?
Might go a long way to explain where some of the surprises to US Intelligence are coming from.
You called it correctly. Maybe you should offer your services to our INTEL groups.
Thank you George H. Bush, for normalizing trade relations with China.
Thanks also to the Clintons for selling off vital military technologies for campaign contributions.
And thanks to the current Bush for the recent military exchanges in which the chicoms get to roam US Navy vessles and facilities while denying us reciprocity in accordance with the agreements.
Just a few things to give thanks for theis weekend—while were still allowed to celebrate Thanksgiving.
Gee, ya mean its not a ‘slam dunk’?
Gosh, I’m just shocked....
I think it’s already too late to stop China, but it’s not too late to quite gifting it and enabling it.
I don’t know Jeff, it’s just baffles me to see what our leaders have done.
Not really when you consider the price of metals and oil are through the roof due the Chinese using their glut of American dollars to buy up all the strategic resources they can get their hands on.
And it's not like they have a labor shortage over there....
They are working as fast as they can to become THE un-challengeable superpower in Asia. And they are doing with the help of gullible American consumers.
It’s not limited to just the CIA.. we need to beef up all of our intelligence agencies especially on the HUMINT side which went to hell after the fall of the USSR... The following also happened recently and this is the 2nd time this has happened.
Chinese Sub Pops Up Undetected in U.S. Navy Exercise
Submitted by Julie on November 10, 2007 - 11:11am.
Recently, when a Chinese submarine popped up undetected in the middle of a Pacific Ocean exercise, dangerously close to the U.S.S. Kitty Hawk, American military chiefs were left dumbfounded and red-faced, according to UK newspaper, Daily Mail.
When the Navy deploys a battle fleet on exercises, they take the security of the aircraft carriers very seriously. At least a dozen warships are used to provide a physical guard, and using advanced technology they are able to detect and deter any potential intruders.
By the time the Chinese sub surfaced, the 160ft Song Class diesel-electric attack submarine sailed within viable range for launching torpedoes or missles at the U.S.S. Kitty Hawk, a 1,000ft. supercarrier with 4,500 military personnel onboard.
According to senior Nato officials, the incident caused a sense of sudden fear in the U.S. Navy, as officials realized the seriousness of the encounter. The U.S. apparently had no idea just how sophisticated China’s fast-growing submarine fleet had become, or that they even posed such a threat.
Reportedly, one Nato figure said that the effect was “as big a shock as the Russians launching Sputnik”. The Sputnik, if you remember, was the Soviet Union’s first orbiting satellite launched in 1957 which marked the beginning of the space age and kicked off the space race.
The U.S. Navy’s brush with the Chinese Navy’s submarine occurred in the Pacific Ocean between southern Japan and Taiwan. The one sub was able to slip past at least a dozen other U.S. warships that were in place to ward off any hostile aircraft or submarines. Two submarines were also in place, along with other advanced technology, which also failed to detect the intruding watercraft.
The U.S. Navy and Nato are now forced to re-think their strategy, and reconsider the level of threat posed from potentially hostile Chinese submarines.
While China insists that the incident was a simple coincidence, others are not so sure about that. The run-in led to some intense diplomatic exchanges, with rattled American diplomats demanding to know why Chinese subs were shadowing the U.S. fleet.
Analysts believe that China was sending a message to the United States and the West by demonstrating their rapidly growing military capability to threaten foreign powers that might try to interfere in their own “backyard.”
As a citizen of the United States, it may leave you wondering if we are really as safe as we think we are.
“I have predicted this exact circumstance for more than a decade. We’ll be funding China until the bullets fly. And those who made fortunes off trade with China will slip back into the woodwork like the human roaches they are.”
I know it and that is what is so maddening about the entire situation. While the rest of Americans fight for daily survival to eat and get necessary things like medication and heat to stay alive, these people will be sitting in fenced in palaces listening to Jimmi Hendrix, smoking a J and eating some nice steaks.
I had read a report at one time that addressed the issue of the world’s population and how much of that population lived within 100 miles of a sea shore.
At another time, there had been some incident that made it clear China was a growing threat, and that their subs could become a very big problem.
I surmised that a few well placed subs could produce a massive amount of U.S. casualties.
When I did this, I had a Navy guy respond that I didn’t know what the hell I was talking about. Why they knew where every Chinese sub was day and night, and not a one of them could get viably close to our shores without the Navy knowing about it.
We got into one of these, you don’t support the military and you don’t know your blank from a hole in the ground arguements.
I don’t know what is more disconcerting, that we can’t know everything and acknowledge it, or that we think we do and won’t acknowedge the possibility that we don’t.
I’m leaning toward the latter.
I have not been surprised. And it probably comes as no surprise that for the past 6 years, Panda Huggers, Red Team idiots and other TRAITORS (THAT’S RIGHT.... THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE IN THESE GROUPS ... TRAITORS! ALL OF YOU, TO THE LAST MAN!) have been sliming me for telling the truth.
Whenever your foreign policy is dictated as per rioting college students and that policy is appeasement, you are gonna get screwed. Sometimes it just takes longer to feel the penetration.
Sending all our scrap metal to Japan doesn’t mean a thing. It’s all a part of doing business, opening trading channels to Asia, and making a buck. Oh, wait a minute. Wrong country, wrong century. Never mind.
“As a citizen of the United States, it may leave you wondering if
we are really as safe as we think we are.”
That’s a constant concern.
And that Chinese sub “pop-up” surely looks like a danger sign.
I hope all the voices of concern from the US Navy are more about
mis-information. And that the folks LET the Chinese sub in close for
gathering information (sonic signature, nice photos up-close of
the sub, maybe even other sensing methods not known outside some very
small and covert circles of the US Military).
If the Chinese had the sub surface near the US ships to get a “photo-op”
for the big-shots in Beijing, it was should be a short-lived time
of rejoicing for the Chi-coms. Now the US Navy knows about a problem
and will be working 24/7 to rectify the situation.
That sub incident might just be “what the doctor ordered” for keeping
a military sharp: “equal doses of humility and fear”
Nixon opened the damn door to trade PERIOD and helped drag them into the 20th century
That led to getting spys into the country
And his DETENTE was S&%$canned by Reagan .His China policy should have been also
Thanks for the additional comments uncbob.
I agree with you totally.
Everytime I hear somebody interview that bloated, pompous, overblown gasbag Kissinger, I get steamed.
We created the Frankenstein facaing us and it started with Nixon, better yet - Truman. McArthur was right.
We’ll school these clowns just like we did the USSR.
Provided we have the cojones to do it again. Which, sadly, I’m unsure of.
If we do, go ahead and put me on the section tracking party.
This has got to be crap.
It doesn’t even take a government analyst to put two-and-two together to guess China will use some of that new found money to upgrade and build-out.
My fantasy is they are in China when the crap hits the fan and they are rounded up and shot and their families are Fed Exd a bill for the bullit.
I think a blind man could see what’s going on.
My fantasy is they are in China when the crap hits the fan and they are rounded up and shot and their families are Fed Exd a bill for the bullit.
Mo one is blind. Everyone, pro & con for dealing with China knows what is going on. Greed is controlling many people.
Thought you might find this interesting.
Well, that might be fitting. That won’t happen. None the less, they will answer for what they have done. Judgement day comes for us all.
It’s comforting to know that other recognize evil when they see it.
>We are decaying within from and the stench is now noticable.<
If America is destroyed, it may be by Americans who salute the flag, sing the national anthem, march in patriotic parades, cheer Fourth of July speakers normally good Americans, but Americans who fail to comprehend what is required to keep our country strong and free, Americans who have been lulled away into a false security.
- Ezra Taft Benson, An Enemy Hath Done This
Duncan Hunter Interview with Hugh Hewitt
People say you cant be tough on China because they are so big. I say you cant ignore China because they are so big. And because of what they are doing.
I watched their military build up. They are building up at double digit pace right now. They are building lots of submarines, buying lots of high end fighter aircraft from the Russians, building about 100 short range ballistic missiles a year. China is stepping into the super power shoes that the Soviet Union left. Now we can have a good relationship with China; but it will have to be a relationship based on American Strength. I think Ronald Reagan proved that to us in our era of conflict and competition with the Soviet Union.
Hugh Hewitt: How many years have you chaired the Armed Services Committee?
Duncan Hunter: I have chaired it for four years. Ive been on that committee for 26 years.
Hugh Hewitt: And does the Pentagon understand China? Do they come forward and do they talk on the record with the Hill about what China represents for the next generation?
Duncan Hunter: You know this last report on China actually received lots of criticism from the State Department because it was very candid about assessing this enormous growing military strength of China. The assessment of the Pentagon was they are doing so much more then they have to do for self defense. They are building an offensive capability. When they shot that satellite out of space on January 11th, because Americas military eyes are largely in space, that really hurdled a new era of military competition between the U.S. and China in space. Like it or not, if you have to rely on satellites for movement of special forces or army brigades or marine corps divisions, you have to rely on satellites for that, and your satellites are in danger, you are in trouble. So we have our eyes, our military eyes [on China]. Plus a lot of our economic capabilities are reflected through our space apparatus. You have to protect that. We are going to have to spend a lot of money now and take a lot of effort to neutralize what is an aggressive Chinese policy in regard to space.
Hugh Hewitt: Lets talk about the media and China. I asked you about this on the radio yesterday, how many questions have you had about China in the course of the Campaign. You have been on the trail for how long?
Duncan Hunter: We have had 4 congressional debates now and we have been out campaigning hard this entire year. We had one great question, I think it came from either Brit Hume or one of his team, during the Fox debate in the South Carolina, last question of the debate to me on China. I was able to give, you only have one minute answer, I try to be a master on the compact answers, I laid out that we have this cheating on trade which is stacking up billions to China and they are using this money to arm. This presents a long term challenge to the United States. Maybe not a direct threat; but a military threat is comprised of two things, capability and intent. They certainly are building a capability to cause us a lot of harm. And the intent of China is always difficult to understand.
Those tough old communists that ran the politboro are still running things. We see these generals make wild statements like, We hope you value L.A. more than you do Taiwan. That is a thinly veiled threat to nuke L.A. Then there will be a flurry of newspaper statements by people saying well, general so and so didnt mean it. Well I hope general so and so is pretty far away from that nuclear trigger. Because that is a wild statement. You see those wild statements that came out of Yunnan Island where the American plane was shot down or was forced down, and the wild statements that came out of there diplomacy core after that were tempered by their trade people. But it shows us there is a element of leadership that is embedded in the Chinese hierarchy that is very aggressive, very anti American and very war like. It is difficult to know which element of the Chinese leadership is going to dominate the government in 5 years.
Pentagon: China Gearing Up for High-Tech Warfare
China hijacks Google, Yahoo, MSN, Youtube...
China: Pictures of DF-25 Missile Revealed For the first time (3-warhead MIRV medium range)
Oh, and there is another option. It could be that they’re intentionally getting it wrong, and it’s just a coincidence that they’re also extremely stupid!