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U.S. report finds U.S. intel consistently wrong on China buildup
World Tribune ^ | Wednesday, November 21, 2007 | East-Asia-Intel.com

Posted on 11/21/2007 10:42:53 AM PST by maddog55

A congressional commission on China reported last week that U.S. intelligence agencies have failed to properly assess Beijing's military buildup and capabilities and were taken by surprise on key developments, including new submarines built in secret.

“The pace and success of China’s military modernization continue to exceed U.S. government estimates,” stated the annual report of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission.

“Indeed, on occasion the U.S. defense and intelligence communities have been taken by surprise, as in the case of the launching of the Jin class submarine by the navy of the People’s Liberation Army.”

The criticism was a slap at pro-China U.S. intelligence officials, including Thomas Fingar, deputy director of national intelligence for analysis, National Intelligence Officer for East Asia Lonnie Henley, a protégé of convicted China spy Ronald Montaperto, and Dennis Wilder, a CIA official who is now the National Security Council staff senior director for Asia.

“Several Chinese advances have surprised U.S. defense and intelligence officials, and raised questions about the quality of our assessments of China’s military capabilities,” the commission report said.

China also could launch up to 10 new Shang-class nuclear attack submarines by next year.

The Jin submarine, also known as the Type 094, is a new class of ballistic missile submarine. It was first photographed in the water in late 2006 moored in Xiaopingdao Submarine Base.

The submarine is believed to be equipped with 12 advanced JL-2 SLBMs with a range of about 8,000 kilometers.

“China’s defense industry is producing new generations of weapons platforms with impressive speed and quality, and these advancements are due in part to the highly effective manner in which Chinese defense companies are integrating commercial technologies into military systems,” the report said.

“Industrial espionage provides Chinese companies an added source of new technology without the necessity of investing time or money to perform research.”


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs
KEYWORDS: china
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1 posted on 11/21/2007 10:42:55 AM PST by maddog55
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To: maddog55

Calling Nada Nadim Prouty. Please pick up the red courtesy phone.


2 posted on 11/21/2007 10:46:54 AM PST by Diogenesis (Igitur qui desiderat pacem, praeparet bellum)
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To: Jeff Head
Perhaps of interest.
3 posted on 11/21/2007 10:48:04 AM PST by Joe Brower (Sheep have three speeds: "graze", "stampede" and "cower".)
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To: maddog55

As somebody who was around when Nixon opened the door I could see this coming

DETENTE was another screwup

Him and Kissinger were foreign policy idiots


4 posted on 11/21/2007 10:49:00 AM PST by uncbob (m first)
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To: Alas Babylon!; American_Centurion; An.American.Expatriate; ASA.Ranger; ASA Vet; Atigun; Ax; ...

MI Ping


5 posted on 11/21/2007 10:49:14 AM PST by ASA Vet
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To: maddog55

It may be simplistic, but my understanding is that CIA really missed
the implosion of the USSR and the fall of the Berlin Wall.

No suprise if our intelligence operatives (despite the good ones that
labor in dangerous, unsung roles) would miss the build up of another menace.

I just hope we at least have some good intell that percolates out into
the public consciousness.

Like the leakers in the British military that let Churchill know that
the British were NOT keeping up with the Germans in the years preceding
WWII.


6 posted on 11/21/2007 10:50:42 AM PST by VOA
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To: uncbob

Re: Nixon and Kissinger being foreign policy idiots. This is the usual mistake of confusing stupidity with evil, repeated so often on this forum . . . There is an agenda to push world government, and those pushing it are not stupid, they are evil (I’m not sure Nixon fell into this category, but Kissinger surely does).


7 posted on 11/21/2007 10:51:31 AM PST by Iconoclast2 (Two wings of the same bird of prey . . .)
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To: maddog55

I don’t know if you saw this but it’s pretty bad when DOD officials simply shrug their shoulders when asked who is manufacturing our military parts and equipment.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/11/15/AR2007111502120.html?hpid=sec-nation


8 posted on 11/21/2007 10:53:04 AM PST by cripplecreek (Only one consistent conservative in this race and his name is Hunter.)
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To: maddog55
A congressional commission on China reported last week that U.S. intelligence agencies have failed to properly assess Beijing's military buildup and capabilities and were taken by surprise on key developments, including new submarines built in secret.

I have predicted this exact circumstance for more than a decade.  We'll be funding China until the bullets fly.  And those who made fortunes off trade with China will slip back into the woodwork like the human roaches they are.

9 posted on 11/21/2007 10:54:50 AM PST by DoughtyOne (California, where the death penalty is reserved for wholesome values. SB 777)
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To: Joe Brower
Thanks Joe.

That site has consistantly NOT underestimated what the Chinese are doing.

...and this next site, let's folk know what the dangerous possibiliies are of letting it continue unchecked.

THE DRAGON'S FURY.

10 posted on 11/21/2007 10:55:48 AM PST by Jeff Head (Freedom is not free...never has been, never will be. (www.dragonsfuryseries.com))
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To: maddog55

Government could function with only 50% of their current staffing AND if it could eliminate pc-ism and political patronage. BUT, I guess it is easier and more satisfying to continue to believe in the tooth ferry.
Real leaders are politically destroyed and incompetent wimps are encouraged by our present system. We are decaying within from and the stench is now noticable.


11 posted on 11/21/2007 10:55:54 AM PST by caisson71
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To: maddog55

Our continuing Trade Deficit with China is just paying for their military. They bring their crap into the country, because it’s manufactured cheaply and take the monies to build that military.


12 posted on 11/21/2007 10:56:20 AM PST by Pistolshot (Never argue with stupid people, they just bring you down to their level and beat you with experience)
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To: maddog55

These morons all need to be fired and replaced by any number of FReepers who have been watching China’s build-up with alarm, most notably, our pard Jeff Head. He’s been saying this for years, and now we find out that our wonderful government is surprised???? Where have they been?


13 posted on 11/21/2007 10:57:41 AM PST by Virginia Ridgerunner (“We must not forget that there is a war on and our troops are in the thick of it!” --Duncan Hunter)
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To: maddog55

Delivering a dozen nuclear attack submarines in a single year seems fast, perhaps a little too fast for the Chinese.

Given the close defense business relationship between the Chinese and Russian governments (e.g., the Chinese have the money and the Russians have the systems), is there any possibility that Russian shpyards are building and delivering these submarines covertly?

Might go a long way to explain where some of the surprises to US Intelligence are coming from.


14 posted on 11/21/2007 10:58:46 AM PST by Captain Rhino ( If we have the WILL to do it, there is nothing built in China that we cannot do without.)
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To: maddog55
Another reason why Duncan Hunter is someone we should be seriously looking at for president.

He's the only one talking about the China threat.
15 posted on 11/21/2007 11:00:56 AM PST by Antoninus (Republicans who support Rudy owe Bill Clinton an apology.)
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To: Jeff Head

You called it correctly. Maybe you should offer your services to our INTEL groups.


16 posted on 11/21/2007 11:04:23 AM PST by B4Ranch (( "Freedom is not free, but don't worry the U.S. Marine Corps will pay most of your share." ))
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To: maddog55

Thank you George H. Bush, for normalizing trade relations with China.

Thanks also to the Clintons for selling off vital military technologies for campaign contributions.

And thanks to the current Bush for the recent military exchanges in which the chicoms get to roam US Navy vessles and facilities while denying us reciprocity in accordance with the agreements.

Just a few things to give thanks for theis weekend—while were still allowed to celebrate Thanksgiving.


17 posted on 11/21/2007 11:10:44 AM PST by PsyOp (Truth in itself is rarely sufficient to make men act. - Clauswitz, On War, 1832.)
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To: maddog55

Gee, ya mean its not a ‘slam dunk’?

Gosh, I’m just shocked....

(sarcasm)


18 posted on 11/21/2007 11:11:39 AM PST by Badeye (That Karma thing keeps coming around, eh Sally? (chuckle))
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To: uncbob
As somebody who was around when Nixon opened the door I could see this coming.  DETENTE was another screwup.  Him and Kissinger were foreign policy idiots.

The opening of relations with China wasn't a bad idea.  It was what took place long after Nixon and Kissinger were involved, that really screwed the pooch.

Just having a means of dialogue directly with China wasn't a bad idea.  It was the middle of the Cold War and we needed to offset the U.S.S.R.  Doing what we did since the 1992 time frame was what was literally criminal IMO.

Look at our approaches to the U.S.S.R. and China.  With Russia we kept a line of dialogue open, refused to trade with them while doing our best to stop the flow of goods, services and cash into the Soviet block, which resulted in a colapse of the U.S.S.R.  In 1992, we totally ignored the object lesson of how we retarded Soviet growth and brought it down, and implemented one of the most self-destructive foreign policy lapses in judgement in our nation's history.

Are Nixon and Kissinger responsible for the actions that took place in 1992?  No, George Bush the first and Bill Clinton the ass, were.  Congress wasn't any help.  It was a collective cluster f--k of American interests IMO, and blaming Nixon and Kissinger for what ultimately took place, is a little like blaming the inventor of the wheel for the damage of howitzers that have wheels on them.

Look at Nixon's utilization of foreign policy to play off China against Russia.  Then look at what we're doing today despite China and Russia having aligned against us.  Sorry, but Nixon was a sage compared to the idiots we have in office today.

Do you honestly think Nixon would have okayed our handing of missile technology and other strategic gifts over to China?  I sure don't.

19 posted on 11/21/2007 11:11:55 AM PST by DoughtyOne (California, where the death penalty is reserved for wholesome values. SB 777)
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To: Jeff Head

I think it’s already too late to stop China, but it’s not too late to quite gifting it and enabling it.

I don’t know Jeff, it’s just baffles me to see what our leaders have done.


20 posted on 11/21/2007 11:14:15 AM PST by DoughtyOne (California, where the death penalty is reserved for wholesome values. SB 777)
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