Posted on 11/22/2007 6:59:12 PM PST by PotatoHeadMick
Americans paused at Thanksgiving yesterday for the traditional annual audit of their blessings. If they'd been listening at all closely to the morose lucubrations of their opinion leaders, however, it would have been pretty slim pickings.
The pundits have finally run out of bad news to report from Iraq, where, unmolested by the morbid fascination of misery-seeking reporters, the locals actually seem to be belatedly enjoying the first fruits of their liberation. So attention has turned again, as it has tended to do from time to time these past 50 years, to the inevitable collapse of the American economy.
The declining dollar is for many an ominous indication that the long period of US economic supremacy is at an end. In the past month especially, a nation that usually remains in blissful ignorance of the daily fluctuations of the foreign exchange markets has been repeatedly reminded that the dollar now buys a fraction of what it used to — down 35 per cent against the pound in the past six years and 40 per cent against that fledgeling monetary superpower, the euro.
Much has been written about the eschatological symbolism of the dollar's fall and the financial problems that have accompanied it. The apparent consensus among commentators here in America and especially in Europe is that the US has become a kind of Third World country, awash in debt and sinking fast because of a collapsing housing market and a banking system in meltdown. And all this is supposed to reflect in turn a seismic shift in the balance of global economic power away from the US and towards Mighty Europe and Emerging Asia.
Let me take a moment in this season of cheer to raise a few objections. The first and most obvious point is that there are many reasons why currencies move against each other, often in quite dramatic fashion. Seismic, epochal, geopolitical shifts are not usually the best explanation.
Rather, more prosaic facts such as differentials in countries' short-term interest rates, the rebalancing of temporary financial and economic imbalances and sudden changes in demand for and prices of commodities such as oil produced by particular countries — all of these help explain the dollar's recent decline.
US interest rates are on a downward trend, while European rates are steady and might even rise. The US still has a vast trade deficit, which is being reduced by a continuing fall in the value of the dollar. Countries such as Canada, which has seen the largest increase in its currency against the dollar, have been beneficiaries of the steep increase in the energy products they export. Another factor behind the current movements is the sensible shift by the world's central banks to a more balanced portfolio of foreign exchange reserves.
For the historically short-sighted, let's remember we have been here before. Between 1985 and 1995, the dollar declined by 43 per cent against the world's big currencies — somewhat more than it has in the past six years. That period was also marked by dire proclamations of the end of US economic power. But it turned out that in those years the foundations were laid for the strongest period of US economic growth in the past 35 years.
If you're still sceptical, ask yourself this: is it probable that the shift in the relative value of the dollar and the euro represents a bet by the world's investors that Europe — strike-torn, productivity-challenged, demographically doomed Europe — is the world's economic future, rather than the US, or, let's say, China? All right, but this is different, say the Cassandras. The US has been living on borrowing for years now. The world has finally woken up to America's addiction to debt — all that growth has been bought on the never-never and now, at last, the bill has come due.
The first thing to be said is that the level of public sector borrowing in the US is very small. The fiscal deficit, at just over 1 per cent of national income, is smaller than in most major European countries. It's true that America faces a large long-term fiscal challenge from an ageing population. But it's a smaller challenge than that faced by most of Europe, Japan or even China.
So if government borrowing isn't the problem, it must be the private sector that's neck-deep in debt, right? The general view is that Americans have irresponsibly fattened themselves up on widescreen televisions and gas-guzzling four-wheel drives, all paid for with easy credit.
If you look at a simple measure such as the savings rate — the proportion of income that is saved rather than spent — Americans do look pretty spendthrift. It is close to zero in the US, compared with 10 per cent in Europe and much higher in Asia. But focusing on this one measure distorts the full picture of America's household balance sheets. The reality is this: why save when the value of the investments you own is increasing at rapid rates? The total value of mortgage and consumer debt is indeed up by a massive $5 trillion since 2001, according to the latest figures published by the Federal Reserve.
But consider the increases in the wealth of Americans during that period. The aggregate value of houses alone is up $8 trillion. The increase in the value of stocks held either directly or through pension funds and other investment instruments is higher by another $8 trillion. That's an increase in net wealth of American households of $11 trillion in less than six years. That's about $90,000 for every household in the country. As someone once said, 11 trillion dollars here and 11 trillion dollars there and pretty soon you're talking serious money.
All right, but isn't the US going into recession, you say? Maybe, but so what? The US is overdue a recession by the standards of the business cycle in the past 60 years. It's possible the housing market and related problems will tip America into another one. Provided the people responsible get policy right, it doesn't have to be a depression.
So the dollar is falling for good, sound reasons that do not require a millenarian view of the global economy. It is yet another thing Americans should be thankful for.
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Sorry, but I ain't dreaming. It's GREAT for me. I work for a manufacturer. Prior to this year, we did about 30% of our business overseas. This year, our domestic business is about flat, but we're way up overall because international orders are THROUGH THE ROOF. Thanks to the declining dollar.
Seriously...we introduced no new products this year. The entire surge is directly attributable to the dollar decline.
SINK, DOLLAR, SINK!!
Hank
“This assumes that there are no domestic energy supplies and/or that the foreign energy suppliers decline to price compete with the domestic ones; a case which is not true.”
Not sure what you are trying to say. But I do know that Gas has gone up 45 cents in two months. I also know that heating oil is up about 75 cents a gallon from last year. So that is an increase in a home heating bill of about $750.00 a year so far. Still rising. And you think Joe six pack is going to be out spending money for Christmas. We shall see.
On a very easy to read page of the report, it outlines for example what you started with, number of shares. At the end, it tells you how many shares you have, the current value, total amount of reinvested assets. So, since the reinvested was already taxed...
Started with 1000 shares at $10,000
Later, you have 2000 shares at 20000, with 5000 in total div/cg reinvested.
10k principal, plus 5k reinvested and taxed already is your basis of 15k. Your basis per share is 15k divided by the 2000 shares. So, your basis per share average is $7.50, with a current value of $10 per share. And selling each then is a 2.50 gain...
Obviously, this works to the degree of using average basis, as I’m no way in heck going to enter each line for line! Our clearing firm is again pretty good, all we do is click on the holding, update basis, put in the date of purchase and the basis per share. Next day it is updated, and in the system.
You can imagine how much time I’ve saved these last couple years, with the tax reporting no longer being an issue at all! More, time, for golf...
I see the UK has increased the amount of long U.S. Treasury Bonds it is purchasing, from $47 billion in the second quarter '07 to $72 billion in the third quarter ended Sept. '07.
yitbos
Hindsight is 20/20. I do agree that we might see a soft economy, maybe recession, as our system absorbs the r/e issue. Will be interesting to see how holiday sales go, should have an early idea by monday. I can’t remember either a time, when a holiday season had so few exciting new products, big money makers. Even Hollywood has no must see movies like they have had for years and years. For example, seeing the Lords of the Rings was an annual tradition for us...
Obviously, they hope to lose money, so they have some write offs! Those stupid brits, don’t they know the USD ONLY goes down in value!?
I hear you. My problem is that I get a lot of accounts from people who have made periodic payments into mutual funds for years. Those are a bitch!
In those cases, we contacted the fund companies directly, asked them to deliver annual tax notices from the past, made it pretty easy.
But only in cases where people started, stopped, and did not have enough information for us.
Otherwise, if they could tell us when they started, and how much they were putting in, we just did the calcs on hysales using a sys investmetn option on the program. As far as accuracy goes, you just use the current number of shares, relative to the hypos for cross reference. If it is close, you’re good to go.
I have not checked, but I’m pretty darn sure the IRS would be ecstatic about the method, find it completely reasonalbe for use. I have called the IRS before on a basis issue that was very complicated with an employee stock purchase program. They said when all else fails, they expect an honest best effort. What i’m doing goes way beyond that.
This has also been a real customer service issue too, and we’ve been rewarded by clients that recognize that we did something in their best efforts. I mean we’re talking tens of mill in new assets. Nobody else does this for them...
Housing prices in US set to a roller coaster ride. 1890- present.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUldGc06S3U
That was cool! I’ve read the book, mentioned at the end, Irrational Exuberance, vl 2. The parts about the history of r/e was extremely interesting.
I’m just going to guess, the next move of that rollercoaster will include the “wheeeeeeeeeee”! part.
I figured youtube would be good for a laugh about rollercoasters. Sure enough...
Rollercoasters can be fun, but deadly. Especially if there are free balloons involved. Laugh til it hurts...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uQrC_C6SexI
Glad you liked it. Your was a bit sick! LOL
Don’t forget that we were taken over by the Japanese in the late 80s early 90s. Their business practices were far superior to ours.
Yes indeed. The Japanese, like Julius Caesar, the original Emperor Veni Vidi Vici, have come/seen/conquered America. A lower dollar at this time in history will hurt Japan and benefit the U.S.
Would I have a problem with that scenario? No, not at all. Time for the tables to turn...
Article Link at THE END: From May 10th 2006 but has indicators that agree with your view. Though channelled through the effect the new islamic regime recently coming to power in Iran at that time would eventually have on the Dollar and the world economy. Exports could not to rise fast enough to bolster the weight of a huge dollar drop.
Earlier this year we sent a highest level financial delegation to China to persuade them not to support Iran, which they took as a threat.
They responded that if we dared to do anything to them or to Iran they would put a trillion or two of dollars they had in cash and sink the whole global economy and everything with it.
Advised they would not be immune to the results, they replied that their standard of living is pretty low compared to the USA or Europe and they had enormous reserves of coal they could use for fuel and live without oil after it becomes too expensive to buy. The Chinese stated their people, with the exception of a thin slice of the population - might hardly feel the change in their living standards.
But the Western economies with their higher standard of living and comfort level expectations of the citizens would not be able to handle the deprivations.
With the ensuing crash of other currencies and economies, there would be nobody who could afford to pay for imports (from anywhere) and all the money combined in ALL central banks in the world, which could or would be thrown at saving the dollar would not be able to support the weight of the crashing Dollar currency.
USA factories would quickly not have the finances to obtain raw materials with which to operate. And businesses would shut down in a way that makes the 1930 depression look like a corporate picnic. Unemployment would be staggering and beyond the means of the nation to survive.
http://noiri.blogspot.com/2006/05/oil-story-revisited.html
We are currently on the start of a slippery slope.
I was looking for a more specific list. On the electronics, is there any company left in the U.S. making electronic products. I don’t belive their is a TV manufacturer left. Probably not a toaster maker or a microwave maker or a ...
Now I know why my BMW lease went up by more than $100 per month. When my wife's Acura lease is up, we're gonna... gonna... gonna... buy a friggin' American car. There, I said it.
Now I know why I'm paying more for French wine and Chimay (i.e., Belgian Trappist beer made by real monks). If this keeps up, I'm going to have to drink Napa wine (well, maybe Sonoma) and domestic microbeer.
Now I know why the Dutch cheese I buy from Kroger costs more. If this keeps up, I'm going to have to buy Gouda from Wisconsin. What a horrible country we've become when imported Gouda costs more than domestic!
It's not fair. I want cheap gas, cheap BMWs, cheap French wine, cheap Trappist beer, cheap Gouda, and cheap government. All I get is cheap satire.
I just hope I get a cheap politician, and not one of the expensive socialist varieties who promises to pay for everything for me, while taxing me twice the value.
Inflation would mean the same thing...
Yes the country is going to hell, when you have to buy domestic stuff. Sucks to be us..
he he he
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