Posted on 12/23/2007 11:45:44 AM PST by tompster76
Election 2008 Republican Nomination
National RCP Average:
Guliani: 21.2 (+2.6)
Huckabee: 18.6
Romney: 15.2
McCain: 14.8
Thompson: 11.8
Paul: 4
Iowa RCP Average:
Huckabee: 30 (+5.2)
Romney 24.8
McCain 10.7
Thompson: 9.7
Guliani 8.5
Paul: 5.8
New Hampshire, RCP Average:
Romney: 30.4 (+5.4)
McCain: 25
Guliani: 14
Huckabee 10.4
Paul: 7.2
Thompson: 3.2
Michigan, RCP Average
Romney: 19.8 (+1)
Huckabee: 18.8
McCain: 13
Guliani: 12.5
Thompson: 6.5
Paul: 4.3
South Carolina, RCP average:
Huckabee: 25.8 (+6.5)
Romney: 19.3
Thompson 13.5
McCain 13
Guliani: 12.8
Paul: 6.3
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
/yes sarc/
HGow many of these states are winner-take-all? Does any Freeper know?
With Fred’s abysmal polling numbers, you can expect an even higher number of anti-Romney posts coming from usual suspects in the next few days.
God-forbid they actually campaign on Fred’s merits.
New Hampshire?
Read from top to bottom, the most liberal to the most conservative.
On all of todays talking head shows, Freds name was mentioned a grand total of zero times.
Does your graph represent National standing as well as the first four primary states as this post does, or is this only Iowa 2004?
He needs to have a respectable showing in the 1st 3 or he won’t make florida.
Polls to watch
Iowa
Mason-Dixon
Des Moines Register
Aggregate average xARG
Rasmussen
New Hampshire
Mason-Dixon
Aggregate average xARG
Rasmussen
That is all, for now.
ARG is just wrong and should be ignored. Other polls vary in quality but in total should be pretty good.
ARG’s latest silliness includes McCain at 20% in Iowa. They’ve been wrong over and over again this year (and all previous years) compared to reputable pollsters and actual results.
That puts it in perspective!
Let’s not give up yet.
Iowa
Mason-Dixon 12/3 - 12/6
Huckabee 32
Romney 20
Thompson 11
McCain 7
Des Moines Register
Nothing in December
Aggregate x ARG
Huckabee 30.4
Romney 26.4
Thompson 10.6
McCain 8.8
Rasmussen
Huckabee 28
Romney 27
McCain 14
Thompson 8
The polls after Christmas should show a good bit of movement
It is interesting to see the MOE for each poll. For example, according to ARG, Fred is at 5% in Iowa (MOE 4) so be might be as high as 9%. Another poll (SurveyUSA) has him at 16% (MOE 4.5) so he could be 11.5%. This is not overlapping with ARG poll so clearly some poll - by definition - is incorrect.
I suppose it is very difficult to have a reliable polling in small states. Still, some trends can probably be spotted and average is typically quite good predictor. (”Very highly likely voters” has also been useful indicator - but not all polls use that).
I have been making this point also. No one talks about Fred?
It is as if he has dropped off the radar.
I’m surprised to see Romney so high in New Hampshire.
“HGow many of these states are winner-take-all? Does any Freeper know?”
Try this site:
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/ccad.phtml
Key:
WTAP = Winner Take All Primary
PP = Proportional Primary
CC = Caucus/Convention
LP = Loophole Primary
AP = Advisory Primary (Beauty Contest)
That one was from NH.
Kerry won
Dean 26 to Kerry 39
Giuliani = Liberal
Has our Party gone the way of the dinosaurs?
Have we lost our values?
If we elect a man who supports gay rights and is pro-choice, we can no longer call ourselves conservative. Have we sunk so low that we would elect a person who dresses in drag? Marches in gay pride parades? Giuliani is a liberal running as a conservative. He's pro-amnesty, pro-gun control, and pro-gay. He is intelligent and has governed New York City successfully, BUT he is not a true conservative by any measure. Conservatives wake up?
God help us if we elect a liberal.
Yeah,....Right...You convinced me.
"Saddle Me Up"
Democratic Governor Endorses Mike Huckabee
Instead we have conservatives lining up behind Mike Huckabee because he agrees with them on two issues - gay marriage and abortion - neither of which the president can do much about. And all the while they ignore his liberal history as governor of Arkansas. If Huckabee is a real conservative, explain this: Since he's running in the Republican primaries for president, don't expect Mike Huckabee to be advertising the strong endorsement he just got from Ted Strickland, Ohio's Democratic governor.
It seems Mr. Strickland, who typically racked up a 95% rating from the liberal Americans for Democratic Action during his 16 years in Congress, has discovered a kindred spirit in Mr. Huckabee. He told the Cincinnati Enquirer last Sunday that Mr. Huckabee is a "combination of conservative views in some ways, but very, almost liberal views in other ways." Mr. Strickland concluded: "Of all the Republican candidates, Mr. Huckabee would be my personal choice."
NOW,,, THERE SHOULD BE NOT DOUBT IN YOUR MIND....HUCKABEE IS LOVED BY DEMOCRATS.
God save us if he is actually nominated by the Republican party, or should I say "former" Republican party ..if that actually occurs.
YOUR CHOICE This OR This.
NEITHER IS A PRETTY PICTURE
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