Posted on 01/16/2008 7:38:34 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
WASHINGTON -- The Republican presidential race is so unsettled that some party officials are openly talking of a scenario that seemed almost unthinkable until now: the first contested GOP convention in 60 years.
Even if Republicans choose a nominee before they convene in Minneapolis-St. Paul on Sept. 1, there's a good possibility he will emerge weeks or even months after the Democratic nominee is chosen, giving Democrats an advantage in fundraising, organizing and campaigning. Congressional Republicans particularly wanted an early nominee to draw voters' attention from President Bush, whose low approval ratings could hurt the entire party in the fall.
Bush's former top political aide, Karl Rove, told Republican officials Wednesday that major challenges await "the moment our candidate secures the nomination." As if they needed reminding, Rove told those at the Republican National Committee's winter meeting, "the primaries are far from over."
Democrats also face the possibility of a long and costly battle involving Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois and former Sen. John Edwards. But officials attending the RNC meeting said Democrats seem likely to make their choice before a clear winner emerges from the pack of four or five still-credible GOP contenders.
"The way it looks now, it could end up in the convention," Ron Schmidt, South Dakota's Republican National Committeeman, said of the party's nominating process. "It's fascinating if you're a political junkie."
In the major contests so far-- Iowa, New Hampshire and Michigan -- three different Republicans have finished first. If former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson scores the win he hopes for in South Carolina on Saturday, he would be the fourth first-place finisher. Likewise, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani could be the fifth winner in the five contests if he proves wise in picking Florida's Jan. 29 primary as his first big stand.
Politicians had long assumed the Feb. 5 "Super Tuesday" primary, involving California, New York and 22 other states, would resolve any doubts about either party's nominee. Democrats feel slightly less certain about that now, and Republicans are even more doubtful.
The GOP process could go "right up to the point that we don't have a clear candidate with enough electoral votes to win" the nomination when the conventions start, said Herbert Schoenbohm, Republican Party chairman for the Virgin Islands. That would be fine with Schoenbohm, who said he is "tired of the coronations and staged events" of recent conventions.
But a deadlocked convention could be a nightmare for the party. The Republicans' last multi-ballot convention was in 1948, when New York Gov. Thomas Dewey prevailed on the third ballot. He lost the general election to Democrat Harry S. Truman.
The last contested Democratic convention was in 1952, when Illinois Gov. Adlai Stevenson won on the third ballot. He later lost two elections to Republican Dwight D. Eisenhower.
Contested conventions have never been kind to their eventual nominees, said G. Terry Madonna, who has studied them as a public affairs professor and pollster at Franklin and Marshall College in Pennsylvania. A deadlocked convention in either party remains unlikely, he said in an interview Wednesday, but it is more possible for Republicans.
Both parties' nominating rules have changed so dramatically since the 1950s, Madonna said, that guidelines for resolving such an impasse are far from clear. "This is something we've never had," he said.
Most convention delegates now are loyal to a given candidate, not to the party itself, he said. The Byzantine rules governing delegates' powers and obligations are nearly incomprehensible, he said. But in the end, it might not matter much.
A deadlocked nominating process would be obvious when most primaries end by early May, Madonna said, four months before the party conventions take place. Then "there will be wheeling and dealing" among the candidates and their surrogates, he said, with possible deals including a vice presidential spot for a contender willing to step aside and resolve the question.
On Wednesday, several Republican officials said a protracted primary season might add excitement to a party that typically settles on a nominee early.
That's not the tune they were humming last summer, however, when they began worrying about potential losses at the congressional and state levels. When a likely GOP nominee emerges by early February or so, Republicans will "not have the Bush monkey on our back," Rep. Tom Feeney, R-Fla., said at the time.
Rove told party officials Wednesday that the eventual GOP presidential nominee has "four big things to do" when the intraparty battle ends. The first, he said, is to "introduce themself to the American people," who pay far less attention to campaigns than most political aficionados realize.
It was a splash of cold-water reality for party activists who don't know who their standard-bearer will be, nor when he will be chosen.
It could be exciting?
Lots of possible scenarios, but more than likely someone will lock it up after super Tuesday.
Talk to me after Super Tuesday. This is very premature.
Why no speculation about the Democrats? Hillary doesn’t exactly look secure.
Has Rudy broken through 10% in any of the states so far?
Why does the media keep talking about him like he's a contender? The public has concluded that he's a joke.
In the event of a brokered convention, G.W.B. will ask his brother Jeb Bush to be the Republican nominee.
Jeb is a very strong candidate, and would win against the Dems.
This whole thing is a nightmare. Fred, our only hope, is looking like a slender reed. And once he’s gone, then what?
It could also suck.I dont put it past our party to really screw things up these days.
he’s still on top in Florida . . and Florida is more important than South Carolina, Iowa, and New Hampshire combined.
it would be exciting,I would bet the demwits have a deadlocked convention before the Republicans
After all, it's St. Paul.
And who will want to spend an extra night there?
>> ...draw voters’ attention from President Bush, whose low approval ratings...
That’s pretty funny, considering that President Bush’s approval ratings are about twice as high as Congress, from where all three major Democrat candidates (Clinton, Obama, and (!)McCain) hail.
Best thing that could happen, IMHO. We need a free-for-all to determine the future of the Republican party. Will we continue to believe in American sovereignty, the Constitution, Federalism, and capitalism, or will we turn into a Democrat-Lite party? This is a fight we need to have. If the latter wins out, I have no further use for the Republican party.
Or, giving Republicans extra time to destroy the dem candidate while they come up with an actual conservative ticket on the last day of the convention.
I can dream, can't I?
The MSM would be relentless.
No thanks. We don’t need any more political dynasties.
“Jeb is a very strong candidate, and would win against the Dems.’
NO MORE BUSHES!
+1
That is where I have been putting my energy and money.
Rudy is a talker, not a fighter.
Please, two Bush’s in one lifetime is enough! /;-(
The above are not conservative and it will be a shame
if the states that will go to the democrats have a say
on who gets the Republican nomination!
Are you SERIOUS? Maybe if he had a different last name.
RG is not on top in Florida polls. He trailed McCain in the last 4 polls taken there.
And if it comes down to a brokered convention, it will have been almost 2 years of campaigning for us to have decided a Republican nominee. Holy smokes.
I’ve been saying it’s going to be brokered since right after Iowa.
And I think it will be a good thing.
We’ll have 6 months of our 5 candidates taking free shots at the Democrat nominee, and they’ll have no one to shoot back at other than President Bush, who won’t be on the ballot.
I don’t think a front runner will emerge after Feb. 5th. I think there will be no front-runner going in, and the results will be mixed. Every candidate will have reason to continue, and their supporters will become ever more determined. If not by the results of Feb. 5th, then soon after the mathematics will become so highly improbable that any candidate can reach 1,191 delegates as to make a brokered convention unavoidable.
I think this favors Fred Thompson, because he’s the only candidate that is acceptable to all factions of the GOP. This is important from the RNC’s standpoint, because any other candidate would pose a risk of jeopardizing fundraising.
Rutherford B. Hayes was nowhere in the picture before the Republican presidential convention of 1876. He was far down the list among the Republicans who wanted to be president on Grant's retirement. But the deadlocked convention after six ballots, turned to Hayes. Quoting Henry Adams: "A third rate nonentity, whose only recommendation is that he is obnoxious to no one and necessary for party harmony."Everyone one knows about the corrupt election with ballot stealing in several southern states by the Republicans. Hayes won by one electoral vote over Democrat Samuel Tilden.
Duncan Hunter after four ballots?
JEB isn’t going to be the nominee.
No more Clintons, no more Bushes.
Better than the Olympics
I haven’t read the article, but this is just what we are looking at, a contested convention.
On the other side of the isle I see the same thing.
Should be interesting and a good vetting of principles during a very disturbing time in American history.
Off to read the article now.
If the convention is locked up with a lot of flawed candidates like we have now, Governor Jeb Bush is the most likely pick.
Especially if George W Bush, Dick Cheney and Karl Rove start a “stampede” at the convention and put his name in nomination.
Then the band starts playing and the confetti falls . . that’s all she wrote. Jeb Bush is playing it very close to the vest now . . but is prepared to accept the position if asked.
“NO MORE BUSHES!”
Agreed.
Fool me once, shame on you.
Fool me twice, shame on me.
Fool me three times just shoot me for being a !@#$% idiot!
Well, let’s wait for Florida. If he wins, he shoots to the top . . if he loses, he’s lost is chance.
That's the stupidest thing I've ever heard. You are being sarcastic, right?
Yer nuts. A lot of this election will be about being sick and tired of dynastys
“Obnoxious to no one and necessary for party harmony” sounds like Fred Thompson (which is exactly why I’ve been saying a brokered convention favors Fred.).
“Third rate nonentity” sounds like Duncan Hunter.
Hunter’s inability to even beat Uncommitted in the Michigan GOP primary (where Uncommitted was running as a Democrat) disqualifies him from consideration. If the party turns to someone outside the the GOP top tier, it will be someone completely outside the race — it will be Newt Gingrich.
I don't want a brokered convention because we can not trust the entrenched traditional power bloc in the party to make a winning choice.
I think they will lean towards John McCain because they will see it as his turn.
That is the kind of thinking that gave the 1996 nomination to Bob Dole and is the kind of thinking that will guarantee a defeat in November.
As far as Jeb Bush as a dark horse -
FUGGEDABOUDIT
No conservative will vote for another Bush as president for a long time.
“Jeb is a very strong candidate, and would win against the Dems.”
What are you, some Clintonista Operative, signed up around Christmastime to avoid Newbie Scrutiny? You are SO busted, Dude. Or Dudette.
Bwaaaaa-Haaaaaaa-Haaaaaa! We need another Bush in the White House like we need a hole in the head. Granted, I give him credit for SCOTUS appointments (after MUCH gnashing of teeth by HIS OWN PARTY) and those tax breaks have been nice...but still...not a stellar track record for eight years’ work.
I propose a duel between the Republican and Democratic nominees. For sure the Pubbies will win...when their gun JUMPS off the table and “accidentally” shoots the DemonRat in the arse, LOL!
Get a grip, Barry...and be VERY careful of what you wish for. ;)
If Fred Thompson can’t win it on his own, no one is going to hand it to him. McCain would be a more likely choice than Thompson.
We need someone who is not already in the race . .
It’s all up in the air right now. I feel certain that McCain will be fading soon, however. Huckafreak is a flash in the pan, as well...
Show me the math of any candidate who can have over 800 delegates at the end of the day on Feb 5th.
This thing is going to the convention.
Yer nuts L0L,(nothin personal)
America HATES dynasties
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.