Posted on 01/18/2008 11:07:48 PM PST by John Semmens
JOHN SEMMENS: Will rising fuel costs spur public transit?
Published: Wednesday, January 16, 2008 http://www.pressofatlanticcity.com/business/yourmoney/autos/story/3790516p-13327623c.html
With world crude oil prices hovering near $100 per barrel and prices at the gas pump exceeding $3 per gallon in most parts of the country, all the ingredients would seem to be in place for dramatic changes in our daily commuting patterns, with millions of Americans shifting from private cars to public transit. That's the way markets are supposed to work: Higher prices encourage consumers to seek less-costly alternatives, substituting margarine for butter, Hondas for Cadillacs, a cup of McDonald's coffee for Starbucks.
Reducing automobile use and encouraging public transportation is said to have other benefits as well: less traffic congestion; less air pollution; and a more-satisfied workforce, as fewer people start the day frustrated or angry from the morning commute.
In fact, even before oil prices reached their current record levels, many people were suggesting that the government push consumer costs higher by increasing gasoline taxes. The assumption is that higher prices would result in less gasoline being used; it's the basic law of supply and demand.
However, the American people - known for their fierce independence as well as their common-sense frugality - don't always act the way academic theorists and computer models (even free-market computer models) say they should act.
Indeed, the dramatic rise in gasoline prices over the past several years seems to have had almost no impact at all on the driving habits of most Americans. The National Automobile Dealers Association, for example, reports that sales of larger vehicles are still robust. In 2006, the last year for which final numbers are available, nearly a million more Americans bought light trucks than bought automobiles - the sixth year in a row in which truck sales exceeded car sales.
Inflation-adjusted gasoline prices more than doubled during the 1995-2005 period (the latest for which both fuel and travel data are available). In theory, an increase of this magnitude should have driven many Americans to alternate modes of transportation. Instead, automobile travel increased by 23 percent. This was twice as fast as the 11 percent population growth during the same period.
As for the notion that rising fuel costs would inspire people to use public transportation, the data do not support this theory either. While gasoline prices were doubling, public transportation ridership - including all forms of urban public transportation, as well as intercity buses and Amtrak - increased by only 7 percent, less than the rate of population growth.
In fact, public transportation's share of travel has actually declined in recent years, from around 7 percent of the total in 1995 to around 6 percent in 2005.
Despite the dramatic increase in gasoline and diesel fuel prices, most Americans continue to forgo public transportation.
There are several reasons for this. The most obvious is the fact that Americans like the freedom to come and go as they please, on their own schedules, not somebody else's.
Americans also value their time. Public transportation is slow compared to automobile travel, with the typical trip taking twice as long as driving a car. The amount of time available in any given day is fixed, so those who can afford to do so put a premium on conserving this valuable resource.
There's a third reason higher gasoline prices are not driving people away from personal automobiles: the fact that many Americans - even those with limited budgets - are making a conscious choice to spend more on certain things, while perhaps cutting back in other areas. Thus, they are willing to pay extra for the convenience and time savings associated with the personal automobile.
The hope that rising gasoline prices or increased gasoline taxes will substantially reduce automobile travel by inducing people to choose public transportation is unrealistic.
Far from being disdained and disparaged as an "energy waster," the automobile should be hailed for its ability to save our most precious resource: time.
John Semmens is a research fellow at the Independent Institute, 100 Swan Way, Oakland, Calif. 94621; Web site: www.independent.org. For information on TII's funding, please go to http://www.mediatransparency.org/recipientgrants.php?recipientID=1119.
yes
no
yes
Greens have a concrete idea that such rising fuel costs must equal great public transit...and they are even willing to tax the heck out of fuel to prove their point. I live in Germany....where I consider mass transit at its absolute peak. In the bigger cities...it works...but primarily because of traffic clogs. Once you get outside of metropolitan areas...it doesn’t work period.
I used to use a train...whenever my car was in the shop...to get from work to home. At 5:30pm....there were a total of 12 people on a 80-passenger train. Economically...its hard to justify running a train like this...but I’m sure the state pays alot of cash to make sure it runs.
I have to think that $3 or $4 gasoline is going to make the Phoenix light rail system a lot more attractive when it opens this year than when it was started seven years ago.
Not to mention freedom of movement. Screw "public transportation". .
WOW! What a ride. After several bus changes and riding all over the place, I finally got there an hour and a half later.
Yeah right, public transit? Bull$hit.
So much for cost efficiency.
FYI here in Illinois:
“Doomsday” averted!
Governor Rod R. Blagojevich today commended the General Assembly for accepting his improvements to a long-term mass transit funding bill that provides free public transportation to Illinois seniors. The CTA, Metra and Pace had planned for drastic service cuts, fare hikes, and layoffs if no solution was passed by Sunday.
$494 million in new, recurring funding for the Regional Transportation Authority, which includes the Chicago Transit Authority, Metra and Pace; and another $50 million for transit agencies in other parts of Illinois.
Let's not forget the "benefit" of riding next to someone who probably hasn't bathed in a week.
Seriously though, I wonder how long it will be until some liberal utopia like SF tries to force public transportation on its people. Just like with "no fireplace" days, could "no private auto days" be in the cards?
My observation is that public transportation is great, if a person wants to wait around for their ride.
My (and obviously your) time is worth more than that.
I'll pay the gas price as opposed to being forced to ride a cattle car.
I haven’t owned a car in 20 years, and don’t miss it a bit.
On the other hand, a friend recently told me that it costs $80.00 a week to fill up the family SUV. $320.00 a month. For an awful lot of people that’s a budget-buster.
I think most people will simply reconsider their priorities and spend less money on less important things.
Another benefit of liberal utopia. You can be sure the advocates of this won't be on that bus.
I say $10 a gallon would do it. In the 40’s, the trains were packed. People rode hundreds of miles standing in the aisles. You can get used to anything.
Maybe. I'll just work harder to afford the gas and not give up my lifestyle on the whim of some turd politician. The more freedom we give up the more they will take. They can all kiss my ass.
I hope you said that in jest. If you didn't then you get used to it. I won't.
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