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Edward Lorenz, Father of Chaos Theory and Butterfly Effect, Dies at 90
MIT News ^
| April 16, 2008
| massachusetts institute of technology
Posted on 04/16/2008 8:11:13 PM PDT by mikrofon
click here to read article
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1
posted on
04/16/2008 8:11:13 PM PDT
by
mikrofon
To: mikrofon
In meteorology, it led to the conclusion that it may be fundamentally impossible to predict weather beyond two or three weeks with a reasonable degree of accuracy. Someone at MIT's gonna get it for that....
To: mikrofon
Wow, had one of those “THAT guy was still alive?” moments.
To: mikrofon
Ah... But Al Gore can predict what the weather will be like in fifty years. LOL
4
posted on
04/16/2008 8:21:35 PM PDT
by
jerod
(They were pro-abortion, for gun control & wanted a cleaner environment at all cost - The NAZI party)
To: mikrofon
It’s not just about the weather.
The behavior of liquids or saturated steam, rushing through pipes at high velocity, is chaotic. Interior erosion of piping, such as those in power plants, occasionally rupture without warning because of the difficulty in predicting where such erosion will occurr. People die becuase of these accidents, mostly due to the very high temperatures of the water or saturated steam.
5
posted on
04/16/2008 8:23:14 PM PDT
by
SatinDoll
(Desperately desiring a conservative government.)
To: mikrofon
OPERATION CHAOS THEORY
6
posted on
04/16/2008 8:25:44 PM PDT
by
Jeff Chandler
(It takes a father to raise a child.)
To: Erasmus; Physicist; neverdem; SunkenCiv; Fred Nerks; <1/1,000,000th%; RightWhale; ...
Like, *PING*, folks.
Sad news here.
7
posted on
04/16/2008 8:34:08 PM PDT
by
grey_whiskers
(The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.)
To: al baby; Auntbee; BJClinton; Dashing Dasher; dfwddr; exile; feinswinesuksass; Finger Monkey; ...
To: mikrofon
To: Jeff Chandler
10
posted on
04/16/2008 8:39:46 PM PDT
by
al baby
(Hi mom)
To: EveningStar
Very sad my mom said if we farted it would rain in a day or so
11
posted on
04/16/2008 8:41:02 PM PDT
by
al baby
(Hi mom)
To: mikrofon
12
posted on
04/16/2008 8:52:16 PM PDT
by
fieldmarshaldj
(~~~***Just say NO to the "O"***~~~)
To: Jeff Chandler
LOL
(However, I don’t think the Butterfly Effect had anything to do with confusing ballots in FL ;)
13
posted on
04/16/2008 8:57:54 PM PDT
by
mikrofon
(Rush Limbaugh: Father of Operation Chaos Theory)
To: al baby
You’re the one. You caused Katrina.
14
posted on
04/16/2008 8:57:59 PM PDT
by
MARTIAL MONK
(I'm waiting for the POP!)
To: mikrofon
Quite a man, may he R.I.P.
One thing I have wondered (without possessing the mathematical or technical knowledge to answer this):
If a change of something like 0.0001 can produce dramatic effects somewhere down the line (some of idea of the “butterfly effect” I hope) then there would seem to be enormous indeterminacies in trying to assess anything as vast and complex as the earth’s climate.
i.e., can any of the current “climate change models” come ever remotely close to representing all of the complexities of earth’s actual climate?
15
posted on
04/16/2008 9:12:55 PM PDT
by
Enchante
(Obama: You dumb, bitter "typical white people" should learn to say "God D--n America!")
To: To Hell With Poverty
In meteorology, it led to the conclusion that it may be fundamentally impossible to predict weather beyond two or three weeks with a reasonable degree of accuracy. But-but-but- we know global warming is true!
Read James Gleick's Chaos back in the late 80's - good book for understanding chaos theory from a layman's point of view.
16
posted on
04/16/2008 9:17:18 PM PDT
by
Ranxerox
To: mikrofon
I used to play around with Chaos programs on the computer years ago to help me learn programming. The math involved dictates that many human ideas and inventions cannot be made to work, no matter how "obvious" the process seems.
Positive feedback oscillators are used in every nearly every radio and every computer in existence, but they work in tightly controlled circuits. When tight control is lost the circuit function goes nuts.
Everyone has heard squealing and crackling in public address systems from too much feedback. That is chaotic math at work on the feedback loop. Some feedback gives squeals, just a little more feedback gives crackling, and just a little more feedback give popping and banging noises as the amplifier saturates at its limits. This phenomenon is not caused by electrical laws but by mathematical laws acting on signal levels and the feedback loop parameters.
Seeing a moving graph output of a running positive feedback system is a revelation - aha! this is how nuclear chain reactions work, massive amounts of positive feedback causing massive spikes in output.
Chaotic math also seems to work on the human ego - too much positive feedback results in chaotic behavior.
:o)
17
posted on
04/16/2008 9:25:29 PM PDT
by
Dumpster Baby
(“It’s not a lie if you believe it”)
To: To Hell With Poverty
Two or three weeks? Hell, most of the time they can’t get it right within two or three DAYS. I can’t even count the number of times I’ve canceled weekend plans because the forecast I saw on Wednesday was dead wrong.
18
posted on
04/16/2008 9:38:08 PM PDT
by
lesser_satan
(Vote McCain - The Choice who Sucks Less!)
To: mikrofon
Bump for morning reading.
19
posted on
04/16/2008 10:08:58 PM PDT
by
TBP
To: Enchante
Climate isn't the same thing as weather. While it would be impossible to determine the weather 10 years from now, the climate is a different matter...much like trying to determine the outcome of a die roll--even if you knew the physical parameters of the die and how it was falling (e.g., weight, friction, density, angle, air density, air currents, etc.), you would be unable to calculate what it would end up showing when it stopped...whereas you could quite easily predict that it would be 1:6 likely to land with a single pip face on top.
That's not to say that chaos theory (or its descendant, complexity theory) isn't relevant--it definitely is! It means that we have to develop our models with these characteristics in mind.
In any case, RIP, Dr. Lorenz.
20
posted on
04/16/2008 10:57:24 PM PDT
by
Gondring
(I'll give up my right to die when hell freezes over my dead body!)
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