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Sunspots and a possible new ice age (updated)
American Thinker ^ | April 22, 2008 | Thomas Lifson

Posted on 04/23/2008 8:44:43 AM PDT by neverdem

There is some serious evidence accumulating that we may be on the brink of not just global cooling, but an ice age. Sunspots are historically correlated with temperature on earth. During the Dalton Minimum, beginning in 1790, the number of sunspots was low, as the earth's climate turned cold for a few decades. At http://www.spaceweather.com/ you can see live images of the sun taken from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory in space. Right now there is but one tiny sunspot.

Phil Chapman, geophysicist and astronautical engineer who lives in San Francisco, writes in The Australian about the frightening prospect that this year's ferocious winter and decline in average  temperature is the herald of serious cooling:

The sunspot number follows a cycle of somewhat variable length, averaging 11 years. The most recent minimum was in March last year. The new cycle, No.24, was supposed to start soon after that, with a gradual build-up in sunspot numbers.


It didn't happen. The first sunspot appeared in January this year and lasted only two days. A tiny spot appeared last Monday but vanished within 24 hours. Another little spot appeared this Monday. Pray that there will be many more, and soon.  [....]

That the rapid temperature decline in 2007 coincided with the failure of cycle No.24 to begin on schedule is not proof of a causal connection but it is cause for concern.

It is time to put aside the global warming dogma, at least to begin contingency planning about what to do if we are moving into another little ice age, similar to the one that lasted from 1100 to 1850.

There is no doubt that the next little ice age would be much worse than the previous one and much more harmful than anything warming may do. There are many more people now and we have become dependent on a few temperate agricultural areas, especially in the US and Canada. Global warming would increase agricultural output, but global cooling will decrease it.

Millions will starve if we do nothing to prepare for it (such as planning changes in agriculture to compensate), and millions more will die from cold-related diseases.

Unlike Al Gore, I would never claim that the science is settled and that the data are all available. We need to watch the sunspot activity, and keep our fingers crossed that the world is not entering a new "little ice age."

If we are entering a period of low sunspot activity and global cooling, then the changes demanded by Warmists, especially the conversion of crops to fuel use, would be catastrophic. But I doubt Al Gore' Nobel Prize will ever be revoked. The fraud Rigoberta Menchu still has her Peace Prize, after all.

Hat tip: Bryan Demko
 
Update:


It turns out that scientists at a joint National Center for Atmospheric research/multi-university research center in Boulder, CO issued a forecast of increased sunspot activity more than two years ago.

The next sunspot cycle will be 30-50% stronger than the last one and begin as much as a year late, according to a breakthrough forecast using a computer model of solar dynamics developed by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Predicting the Sun's cycles accurately, years in advance, will help societies plan for active bouts of solar storms, which can slow satellite orbits, disrupt communications, and bring down power systems.

The scientists have confidence in the forecast because, in a series of test runs, the newly developed model simulated the strength of the past eight solar cycles with more than 98% accuracy. The forecasts are generated, in part, by tracking the subsurface movements of the sunspot remnants of the previous two solar cycles. The team is publishing its forecast in the current issue of Geophysical Research Letters.

"Our model has demonstrated the necessary skill to be used as a forecasting tool," says NCAR scientist Mausumi Dikpati, the leader of the forecast team at NCAR's High Altitude Observatory that also includes Peter Gilman and Giuliana de Toma. [....]

The scientists expect the cycle to begin in late 2007 or early 2008, which is about 6 to 12 months later than a cycle would normally start. Cycle 24 is likely to reach its peak about 2012.

It seems that early 2008 has come and gone. And they seemed pretty proud of their model, too.

Posted at 12:54 PM | Email |


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial; News/Current Events; Technical
KEYWORDS: climatechange; globalcooling; globalwarming; iceage; newiceage; sunspots
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1 posted on 04/23/2008 8:44:43 AM PDT by neverdem
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To: neverdem; Entrepreneur; Defendingliberty; WL-law; Genesis defender; proud_yank; FrPR; ...
 




Beam me to Planet Gore !

2 posted on 04/23/2008 8:48:12 AM PDT by steelyourfaith
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To: neverdem

“at least to begin contingency planning about what to do if we are moving into another little ice age,”

hmmm

pump C02 into the astmosphere comes to mind if it is such an effective global warming gas as we have been told.

LOL

oh the irony!


3 posted on 04/23/2008 8:48:31 AM PDT by Names Ash Housewares
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To: neverdem

Yep! No spots here!............Must have used Oxy-clean!..........

4 posted on 04/23/2008 8:48:36 AM PDT by Red Badger ( We don't have science, but we do have consensus.......)
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To: neverdem

So...........Al Gore responds to this by saying what?


5 posted on 04/23/2008 8:50:35 AM PDT by RC2
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To: RC2
Al Gore responds to this by saying what?

"Pass the potatoes".

6 posted on 04/23/2008 8:53:45 AM PDT by Izzy Dunne (Hello, I'm a TAGLINE virus. Please help me spread by copying me into YOUR tag line.)
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To: neverdem

New Ice Age? That could mean more Titanics! And this is Bush’s fault.


7 posted on 04/23/2008 8:53:48 AM PDT by Jeff Chandler (It takes a father to raise a child.)
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To: neverdem
Here is a current


8 posted on 04/23/2008 8:54:16 AM PDT by Domandred (McCain's 'R' is a typo that has never been corrected)
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To: Domandred

Delayed a few days obviously


9 posted on 04/23/2008 8:54:59 AM PDT by Domandred (McCain's 'R' is a typo that has never been corrected)
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To: neverdem

O noes, Algoracle! Millunz O ppl R Gona Freeezzz!

10 posted on 04/23/2008 8:55:46 AM PDT by rock_lobsta (Not Your Ordinary Crustacean.)
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To: neverdem
another little ice age, similar to the one that lasted from 1100 to 1850.

Dates seem a little off. That range includes the medieval warm period.

11 posted on 04/23/2008 8:56:59 AM PDT by palmer
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To: neverdem
Millions will starve if we do nothing to prepare for it (such as planning changes in agriculture to compensate)

I agree that we are headed for 800 years of cooler weather (I show the temp graphs below that show the ~sinusoidal variance of climate temperature over the last 1000 years) but the LAST thing I would do is invite Government to do anything about it. Get the Government out of the way!


12 posted on 04/23/2008 8:57:32 AM PDT by agere_contra
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To: neverdem
A tiny spot appeared last Monday but vanished within 24 hours.

There's a little black spot on the sun today ...

13 posted on 04/23/2008 8:58:38 AM PDT by trad_anglican
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To: neverdem
Some related links -for those interested-

Not by Fire but by Ice

ICECAP

I Love My Carbon Dioxide

14 posted on 04/23/2008 8:59:48 AM PDT by urabus
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To: steelyourfaith

QUICK!

Chop down some forests and everyone buy a Suburban!


15 posted on 04/23/2008 8:59:59 AM PDT by Gamecock ("I find your lack of faith-disturbing" Darth Vader)
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To: neverdem

Bookmark


16 posted on 04/23/2008 9:00:45 AM PDT by JOAT
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To: sneakers

bttt


17 posted on 04/23/2008 9:01:56 AM PDT by sneakers (Liberty is the answer to the human condition.)
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To: trad_anglican

Today’s sunspot is a cycle 23 event.

Cycle 24 should have started ramping up a few months ago.


18 posted on 04/23/2008 9:01:58 AM PDT by JBR34
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To: Domandred
A Cool Sun link

the Sun in Motion - gary palmer

19 posted on 04/23/2008 9:02:40 AM PDT by urabus
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To: neverdem

Marking...


20 posted on 04/23/2008 9:07:49 AM PDT by tubebender (Don't pick a fight with an old man. He is too old to fight, he'll just kill you.)
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To: agere_contra; xcamel
I agree that we are headed for 800 years of cooler weather

Then we got jipped. Only a century of warming, where in the past they got several centuries of warm temps between cooling periods

But it doesn't really matter, even during the Little Ice age there were still El Ninos & heatwaves, the AGW crowd will just highlight those and no matter how cold the actual temps get they will just continue to "Hansenize" the data to show it getting warmer & warmer. Just look at last month, even with a massive La Nina sitting out there in the pacific they claim March 2008 was globally the 2nd warmest month ever.

21 posted on 04/23/2008 9:09:53 AM PDT by qam1 (There's been a huge party. All plates and the bottles are empty, all that's left is the bill to pay)
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To: JBR34

In the article above, the model used to predict a sun-spot cycle in early 2008 is being made fun of.

Is that correct or did I misunderstand? This is a serious question.


22 posted on 04/23/2008 9:10:12 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain -- Those denying the War was Necessary Do NOT Support the Troops!)
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To: neverdem

I guess Gore will have to find another line of work.


23 posted on 04/23/2008 9:13:02 AM PDT by Leftism is Mentally Deranged
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To: neverdem

Earth first.
We’ll log the other planets later.


24 posted on 04/23/2008 9:21:25 AM PDT by SkyShot (Jesus is coming.....Look busy!)
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To: neverdem

Where have all of the sunspots gone? They’re not coming...


25 posted on 04/23/2008 9:25:29 AM PDT by jpl ("Don't tell me words don't matter." - Barack Obama, via Deval Patrick)
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To: neverdem

What say you, Newt?


26 posted on 04/23/2008 9:36:23 AM PDT by OESY
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To: neverdem

Good! My lawn has really taken a hit the last two summers. It should look really nice this year.


27 posted on 04/23/2008 9:38:52 AM PDT by mikey_hates_everything
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To: neverdem

We’ve been in an ice age for the last 4 million years.

We’re about to enter another glacial epoch.


28 posted on 04/23/2008 9:41:06 AM PDT by <1/1,000,000th%
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To: agere_contra
I read this guy's entire article, and I felt that his hype was just as catastrophe-oriented as the global warming hype. The reason humans are still around is because we adapt to our changing environment. That being said, I have read similar articles on the effect of the sun (sunspots) on our climate (without the hyperbole), from several different sources, so I am tending toward agreeing that we are probably cooling.

What I am much more worried about is how quickly the ethanol boondoggle has affected our food supply and distribution. Will anyone have the guts to stand up and say "whoah!, we missed something here and we need to take a step back"?

29 posted on 04/23/2008 9:41:28 AM PDT by LibertarianLiz
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To: neverdem

I don’t know. It wasn’t that long ago Earth emerged from the Little Ice Age. It seems soon to go back into a cold cycle. But, the last decade has seen slight cooling and if the sunspot fits . . . .


30 posted on 04/23/2008 9:43:43 AM PDT by colorado tanker (Number nine, number nine, number nine . . .)
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To: neverdem

I’ve been telling people about this since the sunspots stopped on (or about) June 13th of 2007. I had been tracking the decline in sunspots knowing it was cyclical and about to decrease.

The amazing thing was that for the next couple of months I noted that there was not the gradual increase in new sun spots which I knew was rare.

Months passed and sunspot activity did not return as was normal.

At this point I want to say that I am by any deffination - an amature yet “I knew this was dramatic” (with extra emphysis on the word DRAMATIC.)

My question is - Why did nobody mention this on the news?

The professionals said nothing, to my knowledge. It may be that the press just refused to report this fact because it reputiated Al Gores talking points, or they had no idea, or interest, in anything science based. Since the fact has finally been reported “That fact” telles me more about the press than anything they can say about themselves - They are just not interested in facts (Science) as they claim. They have an agenda and the Science be Damned.

Well they may freeze in hell but they will resist to the bitter end the fact that “man” has less effect on the earth’s weather than factors outside our human capabilities and perview.


31 posted on 04/23/2008 9:43:58 AM PDT by jongaltsr (Hope to See ya in Galt's Gulch.)
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To: JBR34

The officiail start of cycle 24 occurs when the number of cycle 24 spots exceed the number of 23 spots over a couple month average. It is possible and happens that cycle 23 and 24 spots are on the sun at the same time. For those interested a great site can be found at.......

http://solarcycle24.com/


32 posted on 04/23/2008 9:44:04 AM PDT by milwguy (........)
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To: neverdem

ping


33 posted on 04/23/2008 10:01:23 AM PDT by outofsalt ("If History teaches us anything it's that history rarely teaches us anything")
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To: <1/1,000,000th%

You should win a prize, since you are quite correct that we are still in an Ice Age. The media and many scientists never mention the fact that we are currently in an interglacial warm period, which directly infers that one-day the warm period will be over. I just hope it’s after my life time.


34 posted on 04/23/2008 10:01:49 AM PDT by ohioman
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To: Domandred

You shouldn’t have posted that, somebody’s going to go blind staring at it.........


35 posted on 04/23/2008 10:02:03 AM PDT by Hot Tabasco (My company's union supported Granholm...we all lost our jobs.)
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To: milwguy

Bring on the cooling WHEW! Summer’s coming!


36 posted on 04/23/2008 10:04:26 AM PDT by bicyclerepair (FT. LAUDERDALE FLORIDA)
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To: ohioman

I know I’ll miss it.

I’m too old for the glaciers to get here before my time is up.


37 posted on 04/23/2008 10:04:26 AM PDT by <1/1,000,000th%
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To: jongaltsr

“Well they may freeze in hell but they will resist to the bitter end the fact that “man” has less effect on the earth’s weather than factors outside our human capabilities and perview.”

The sixties generation latched on to terms like “make a difference” and a few even speak of “saving the world.” Feeling they are important and making a difference, or even saving the world (like Algore), gives almost religious meaning to the lives of many of that generation and the younger people who’ve bought into it.

Global warming and almost worshiping the environment is the religion for many of these people. They need it and they won’t give it up, no matter the evidence that refutes their religious beliefs. Man just has to be responsible for global warming (which is gradually being replaced by “climate change”).


38 posted on 04/23/2008 10:27:38 AM PDT by Will88
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To: rock_lobsta

“Toto, I’ve a feeling we’re not in Kansas anymore!”


39 posted on 04/23/2008 10:29:18 AM PDT by Froufrou
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To: Red Badger
Actually, this is what the sun looks like without sunspots - your picture is literally covered with them. http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/images/solarminimum/midi512_blank.gif Nicepost
40 posted on 04/23/2008 10:29:44 AM PDT by PeterFinn (Charlton Heston & Ronald Reagan - my two favorite Presidents.)
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To: colorado tanker

“I don’t know. It wasn’t that long ago Earth emerged from the Little Ice Age. It seems soon to go back into a cold cycle. But, the last decade has seen slight cooling and if the sunspot fits . . . .”

One theory is that we are still in the Little Ice Age, and this recent warming is just another of the intermittent warming periods, which the graph in #12 also seems to show.


41 posted on 04/23/2008 10:33:10 AM PDT by Will88
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To: Will88

The Little Ice Age is still with us:

http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=94b7d021-c5da-4e82-b37f-53d338709fb1


42 posted on 04/23/2008 10:38:25 AM PDT by Will88
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To: neverdem
Solar Cycle 24 http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/f10.gif
43 posted on 04/23/2008 10:40:31 AM PDT by ckilmer (Phi)
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To: qam1
Feel free to discuss data quality issues; I won't participate in that discussion, but it is probably possible to disparage data quality in multiple ways.

But if you want to know why March is ranked the way it is, this is why:

Are the anomalies real? Ask the snow:

Take Your Pick with the March 2008 Temperatures

"March snow cover extent on the Eurasian Continent was the lowest on record."

Great blog discussion on that thread, too. IHIAB.

44 posted on 04/23/2008 10:42:27 AM PDT by cogitator
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To: neverdem

In fact the current sunspot, 23 Apr. 08, has the polarity of Cycle 23. We’re still waiting on Cycle 24.


45 posted on 04/23/2008 10:47:34 AM PDT by Justa (Politically Correct is morally wrong.)
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To: Will88
One theory is that we are still in the Little Ice Age, and this recent warming is just another of the intermittent warming periods, which the graph in #12 also seems to show.

Interesting.

46 posted on 04/23/2008 10:50:07 AM PDT by colorado tanker (Number nine, number nine, number nine . . .)
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To: Will88
Global warming and almost worshiping the environment is the religion for many of these people. They need it and they won’t give it up, no matter the evidence that refutes their religious beliefs. Man just has to be responsible for global warming (which is gradually being replaced by “climate change”).

.... and those who lives by the sword die by the sword. I just don't want to die because someone else is terminally "StewPid".
47 posted on 04/23/2008 11:31:52 AM PDT by jongaltsr (Hope to See ya in Galt's Gulch.)
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To: jongaltsr
My question is - Why did nobody mention this on the news?

Isn't it obvious? Sunspot scientists are in the back pocket of big oil, therefore, their findings are not worthy of mention. Besides, big media has already hitched itself to algore. /sarcasm

Besides, powerful corporations like GE stand to make billions convincing us that Global Warming is real so we will all go out and buy new fridges, AC's, and other "green" appliances we don't need.

48 posted on 04/23/2008 11:33:39 AM PDT by PsyOp (Truth in itself is rarely sufficient to make men act. - Clauswitz, On War, 1832.)
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To: PsyOp

..... stupid question. Obvious answer - at least to those of us who don’t depend upon the Main Stream Media for our news.

I also would like to add that my solution to this “Green” revolution is to shove it in their face by Starting a Company called “The Green Company”, Have the Building painted “Grass Green” and all of the office paper on ‘green paper’ and the CEO with the last name of “Green” - - - and sell wood stoves, SUV’s etc.

Shove their symbolism right back in their face and make lots of money from non eco sensitive people who would like to support a ANTI symbolism based company.


49 posted on 04/23/2008 11:55:16 AM PDT by jongaltsr (Hope to See ya in Galt's Gulch.)
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To: Names Ash Housewares

Form a blog, a brief explanation of what is wrong with the IPCC models that predict so much warming - they rely on feedback THAT ISN’T THERE:

http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/04/18/open-thread/#comments

Is the 10% from the math or computer models or observed data from the atmosphere? I understand that CO2’s sensitivity has yet to be measured in the atmosphere.”

This number is estimated using basic physics which even skeptical scientists agree with (e.g. Richard Linzden, Pat Micheals). The source of 10% figure is explained on the junkscience.com page I linked to. I believe junkscience.com coined the term ‘playstation science’ in first place.

The computer models only become an issue when alarmists argue that a small increases in CO2 will by amplified by water vapour feedback. Saying CO2 accounts for 10% of the greenhouse effect does not include any of these feedbacks.

GW science is complex and not everything claimed by the alarmists is wrong.


The CO2 effect, in a direct sense, is not even the issue. The IPCC could be 100% right about the warming effect of CO2 and STILL be 100% wrong.

What the IPCC models rely on are the positive feedback issues. If there is no positive feedback, if there is instead, negative feedback leading to homeostasis, then the entire AGW hypothesis is in the dumper.

That’s what’s the big news about the AquaSat. No positive feedback. The water vapor that is supposed to be increasing the GH effect is instead going into cloud cover and increasing albedo/precipitation, which leads to an increase increase ice cover, which in turn leads to even more albedo.


50 posted on 04/23/2008 2:17:05 PM PDT by WOSG (Gameplan: Obama beats Hillary, McCain beats Obama, conservatives beat RINOs)
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