Skip to comments.Sunspots and a possible new ice age (updated)
Posted on 04/23/2008 8:44:43 AM PDT by neverdem
There is some serious evidence accumulating that we may be on the brink of not just global cooling, but an ice age. Sunspots are historically correlated with temperature on earth. During the Dalton Minimum, beginning in 1790, the number of sunspots was low, as the earth's climate turned cold for a few decades. At http://www.spaceweather.com/ you can see live images of the sun taken from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory in space. Right now there is but one tiny sunspot.
The sunspot number follows a cycle of somewhat variable length, averaging 11 years. The most recent minimum was in March last year. The new cycle, No.24, was supposed to start soon after that, with a gradual build-up in sunspot numbers.
It didn't happen. The first sunspot appeared in January this year and lasted only two days. A tiny spot appeared last Monday but vanished within 24 hours. Another little spot appeared this Monday. Pray that there will be many more, and soon. [....]
That the rapid temperature decline in 2007 coincided with the failure of cycle No.24 to begin on schedule is not proof of a causal connection but it is cause for concern.
It is time to put aside the global warming dogma, at least to begin contingency planning about what to do if we are moving into another little ice age, similar to the one that lasted from 1100 to 1850.
There is no doubt that the next little ice age would be much worse than the previous one and much more harmful than anything warming may do. There are many more people now and we have become dependent on a few temperate agricultural areas, especially in the US and Canada. Global warming would increase agricultural output, but global cooling will decrease it.
Millions will starve if we do nothing to prepare for it (such as planning changes in agriculture to compensate), and millions more will die from cold-related diseases.
The next sunspot cycle will be 30-50% stronger than the last one and begin as much as a year late, according to a breakthrough forecast using a computer model of solar dynamics developed by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Predicting the Sun's cycles accurately, years in advance, will help societies plan for active bouts of solar storms, which can slow satellite orbits, disrupt communications, and bring down power systems.
The scientists have confidence in the forecast because, in a series of test runs, the newly developed model simulated the strength of the past eight solar cycles with more than 98% accuracy. The forecasts are generated, in part, by tracking the subsurface movements of the sunspot remnants of the previous two solar cycles. The team is publishing its forecast in the current issue of Geophysical Research Letters.
"Our model has demonstrated the necessary skill to be used as a forecasting tool," says NCAR scientist Mausumi Dikpati, the leader of the forecast team at NCAR's High Altitude Observatory that also includes Peter Gilman and Giuliana de Toma. [....]
The scientists expect the cycle to begin in late 2007 or early 2008, which is about 6 to 12 months later than a cycle would normally start. Cycle 24 is likely to reach its peak about 2012.
“at least to begin contingency planning about what to do if we are moving into another little ice age,”
pump C02 into the astmosphere comes to mind if it is such an effective global warming gas as we have been told.
oh the irony!
Yep! No spots here!............Must have used Oxy-clean!..........
So...........Al Gore responds to this by saying what?
"Pass the potatoes".
New Ice Age? That could mean more Titanics! And this is Bush’s fault.
Delayed a few days obviously
O noes, Algoracle! Millunz O ppl R Gona Freeezzz!
Dates seem a little off. That range includes the medieval warm period.
I agree that we are headed for 800 years of cooler weather (I show the temp graphs below that show the ~sinusoidal variance of climate temperature over the last 1000 years) but the LAST thing I would do is invite Government to do anything about it. Get the Government out of the way!
There's a little black spot on the sun today ...
Chop down some forests and everyone buy a Suburban!
Today’s sunspot is a cycle 23 event.
Cycle 24 should have started ramping up a few months ago.
Then we got jipped. Only a century of warming, where in the past they got several centuries of warm temps between cooling periods
But it doesn't really matter, even during the Little Ice age there were still El Ninos & heatwaves, the AGW crowd will just highlight those and no matter how cold the actual temps get they will just continue to "Hansenize" the data to show it getting warmer & warmer. Just look at last month, even with a massive La Nina sitting out there in the pacific they claim March 2008 was globally the 2nd warmest month ever.
In the article above, the model used to predict a sun-spot cycle in early 2008 is being made fun of.
Is that correct or did I misunderstand? This is a serious question.
I guess Gore will have to find another line of work.
We’ll log the other planets later.
Where have all of the sunspots gone? They’re not coming...
What say you, Newt?
Good! My lawn has really taken a hit the last two summers. It should look really nice this year.
We’ve been in an ice age for the last 4 million years.
We’re about to enter another glacial epoch.
What I am much more worried about is how quickly the ethanol boondoggle has affected our food supply and distribution. Will anyone have the guts to stand up and say "whoah!, we missed something here and we need to take a step back"?
I don’t know. It wasn’t that long ago Earth emerged from the Little Ice Age. It seems soon to go back into a cold cycle. But, the last decade has seen slight cooling and if the sunspot fits . . . .
I’ve been telling people about this since the sunspots stopped on (or about) June 13th of 2007. I had been tracking the decline in sunspots knowing it was cyclical and about to decrease.
The amazing thing was that for the next couple of months I noted that there was not the gradual increase in new sun spots which I knew was rare.
Months passed and sunspot activity did not return as was normal.
At this point I want to say that I am by any deffination - an amature yet “I knew this was dramatic” (with extra emphysis on the word DRAMATIC.)
My question is - Why did nobody mention this on the news?
The professionals said nothing, to my knowledge. It may be that the press just refused to report this fact because it reputiated Al Gores talking points, or they had no idea, or interest, in anything science based. Since the fact has finally been reported “That fact” telles me more about the press than anything they can say about themselves - They are just not interested in facts (Science) as they claim. They have an agenda and the Science be Damned.
Well they may freeze in hell but they will resist to the bitter end the fact that “man” has less effect on the earth’s weather than factors outside our human capabilities and perview.
The officiail start of cycle 24 occurs when the number of cycle 24 spots exceed the number of 23 spots over a couple month average. It is possible and happens that cycle 23 and 24 spots are on the sun at the same time. For those interested a great site can be found at.......
You should win a prize, since you are quite correct that we are still in an Ice Age. The media and many scientists never mention the fact that we are currently in an interglacial warm period, which directly infers that one-day the warm period will be over. I just hope it’s after my life time.
You shouldn’t have posted that, somebody’s going to go blind staring at it.........
Bring on the cooling WHEW! Summer’s coming!
I know I’ll miss it.
I’m too old for the glaciers to get here before my time is up.
“Well they may freeze in hell but they will resist to the bitter end the fact that man has less effect on the earths weather than factors outside our human capabilities and perview.”
The sixties generation latched on to terms like “make a difference” and a few even speak of “saving the world.” Feeling they are important and making a difference, or even saving the world (like Algore), gives almost religious meaning to the lives of many of that generation and the younger people who’ve bought into it.
Global warming and almost worshiping the environment is the religion for many of these people. They need it and they won’t give it up, no matter the evidence that refutes their religious beliefs. Man just has to be responsible for global warming (which is gradually being replaced by “climate change”).
“Toto, I’ve a feeling we’re not in Kansas anymore!”
“I dont know. It wasnt that long ago Earth emerged from the Little Ice Age. It seems soon to go back into a cold cycle. But, the last decade has seen slight cooling and if the sunspot fits . . . .”
One theory is that we are still in the Little Ice Age, and this recent warming is just another of the intermittent warming periods, which the graph in #12 also seems to show.
The Little Ice Age is still with us:
But if you want to know why March is ranked the way it is, this is why:
Are the anomalies real? Ask the snow:
"March snow cover extent on the Eurasian Continent was the lowest on record."
Great blog discussion on that thread, too. IHIAB.
In fact the current sunspot, 23 Apr. 08, has the polarity of Cycle 23. We’re still waiting on Cycle 24.
Isn't it obvious? Sunspot scientists are in the back pocket of big oil, therefore, their findings are not worthy of mention. Besides, big media has already hitched itself to algore. /sarcasm
Besides, powerful corporations like GE stand to make billions convincing us that Global Warming is real so we will all go out and buy new fridges, AC's, and other "green" appliances we don't need.
..... stupid question. Obvious answer - at least to those of us who don’t depend upon the Main Stream Media for our news.
I also would like to add that my solution to this “Green” revolution is to shove it in their face by Starting a Company called “The Green Company”, Have the Building painted “Grass Green” and all of the office paper on ‘green paper’ and the CEO with the last name of “Green” - - - and sell wood stoves, SUV’s etc.
Shove their symbolism right back in their face and make lots of money from non eco sensitive people who would like to support a ANTI symbolism based company.
Form a blog, a brief explanation of what is wrong with the IPCC models that predict so much warming - they rely on feedback THAT ISN’T THERE:
Is the 10% from the math or computer models or observed data from the atmosphere? I understand that CO2s sensitivity has yet to be measured in the atmosphere.
This number is estimated using basic physics which even skeptical scientists agree with (e.g. Richard Linzden, Pat Micheals). The source of 10% figure is explained on the junkscience.com page I linked to. I believe junkscience.com coined the term playstation science in first place.
The computer models only become an issue when alarmists argue that a small increases in CO2 will by amplified by water vapour feedback. Saying CO2 accounts for 10% of the greenhouse effect does not include any of these feedbacks.
GW science is complex and not everything claimed by the alarmists is wrong.
The CO2 effect, in a direct sense, is not even the issue. The IPCC could be 100% right about the warming effect of CO2 and STILL be 100% wrong.
What the IPCC models rely on are the positive feedback issues. If there is no positive feedback, if there is instead, negative feedback leading to homeostasis, then the entire AGW hypothesis is in the dumper.
Thats whats the big news about the AquaSat. No positive feedback. The water vapor that is supposed to be increasing the GH effect is instead going into cloud cover and increasing albedo/precipitation, which leads to an increase increase ice cover, which in turn leads to even more albedo.