Posted on 05/20/2008 7:44:34 AM PDT by Clive
You may have heard earlier this month that global warming is now likely to take a break for a decade or more. There will be no more warming until 2015, perhaps later.
Climate scientist Noel Keenlyside, leading a team from Germany's Leibniz Institute of Marine Science and the Max Planck Institute of Meteorology, for the first time entered verifiable data on ocean circulation cycles into one of the U. N.'s climate supercomputers, and the machine spit out a projection that there will be no more warming for the foreseeable future.
Of course, Mr. Keenlyside-- long a defender of the man-made global warming theory -- was quick to add that after 2015 (or perhaps 2020), warming would resume with a vengeance.
Climate alarmists the world over were quick to add that they had known all along there would be periods when the Earth's climate would cool even as the overall trend was toward dangerous climate change.
Sorry, but that is just so much backfill.
There may have been the odd global-warming scientist in the past decade who allowed that warming would pause periodically in its otherwise relentless upward march, but he or she was a rarity.
If anything, the opposite is true: Almost no climate scientist who backed the alarmism ever expected warming would take anything like a 10 or 15-year hiatus.
Last year, in its oft-quoted report on global warming, the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicted a 0.3-degree C rise in temperature in the coming decade -- not a cooling or even just temperature stability.
In its previous report in 2001, the IPCC prominently displaced the so-called temperature "hockey stick" that purported to show temperature pretty much plateauing for the thousand years before 1900, then taking off in the 20th Century in a smooth upward line. No 10-year dips backwards were foreseen.
It is drummed into us, ad nauseum, that the IPCC represents 2,500 scientists who together embrace a "consensus" that man-made global warming is a "scientific fact;" and as recently as last year, they didn't see this cooling coming. So the alarmists can't weasel out of this by claiming they knew all along such anomalies would occur.
This is not something any alarmist predicted, and it showed up in none of the UN's computer projections until Mr. Keenlyside et al. were finally able to enter detailed data into their climate model on past ocean current behaviour.
Less well-known is that global temperatures have already been falling for a decade. All of which means, that by 2015 or 2020, when warming is expected to resume, we will have had nearly 20 years of fairly steady cooling.
Saints of the new climate religion, such as Al Gore, have stated that eight of the 10 years since 1998 are the warmest on record. Even if that were true, none has been as warm as 1998, which means the trend of the past decade has been downward, not upward.
Last year, for instance, saw a drop in the global average temperature of nearly 0.7 degrees C (the largest single-year movement up or down since global temperature averages have been calculated). Despite advanced predictions that 2007 would be the warmest year on record, made by such UN associates as Britain's Hadley Centre, a government climate research agency, 2007 was the coolest year since at least 1993.
According to the U. S. National Climatic Data Center, the average temperature of the global land surface in January 2008 was below the 20th-Century mean for the first time since 1982.
Also in January, Southern Hemisphere sea ice coverage was at its greatest summer level (January is summer in the Southern Hemisphere) in the past 30 years.
Neither the 3,000 temperature buoys that float throughout the world's oceans nor the eight NASA satellites that float above our atmosphere have recorded appreciable warming in the past six to eight years.
Even Rajendra Pachauri, the head of the IPCC, reluctantly admitted to Reuters in January that there has been no warming so far in the 21st Century.
Does this prove that global warming isn't happening, that we can all go back to idling our SUVs 24/7? No. But it should introduce doubt into the claim that the science of global warming is "settled."
lgunter@shaw.ca
My work has been more along the Bonder-Farrel DiffEQ lines.
But hey, a job offer that doesn’t include “must be willing to bear arms and wear a uniform at the government’s discretion” is one I am willing to listen to!
BTW, I used to drive Seth Bonder home, and plow his driveway (I was the only scientist at the office with a snowplow).
And Bob Farrell was the scariest dude I ever met - I felt like an idiot whenever I talked to him, and after EVERY conversation, I ran down the hall and hit the books, to see what the heck he just said to me.
LOL.
Excellent point!
IMHO, the UN is a bigger threat than global warming.
Did I mention that the Swedish Bikini team wants to come? Also, a well stocked wine cellar would be nice. I am starting to like this govenment work a lot. :)
“Did I mention that the Swedish Bikini team wants to come? “
It will be cold in the Arctic! Maybe a fur bikini, chinchilla?
Global warming on Free Republic
Preach it, brother!!!! It sure AIN’T settled!
About two feet in diameter and fifteen feet long? That would do it. And one proper probe would make any further checks unnecessary!
Permission to come aboard Sir?
(Mind if I bring my fishing tackle?)
This is not a thread, it’s a MOVEMENT!
Yes, welcome aboard!
All are welcome, what skills do you bring us in our effort to Save The Polar Bears 2008?
Do you have ice fishing tackle? When the Boomershoot clears ice for the bears, if no bears show up right away, a tilt or two would be a good way to build camaraderie among the crew and to provide organic, natural food.
Global warming is a hoax, ping.
The Global Cooling Bet -- Part 2
From the latter:
"Their forecast was not only too cold for 1994-2004, but it also looks almost certain to be too cold for 2000-2010. For their forecast for 2000-2010 to be correct, all the remaining months of this period would have to be as cold as January 2008 - which was by far the coldest month in that decade thus far. It would thus require an extreme cooling for the next two-and-a-half years."
and
"Why did we propose a bet on this forecast? Mainly because we were concerned by the global media coverage which made it appear as if a coming pause in global warming was almost a given fact, rather than an experimental forecast. This could backfire against the whole climate science community if the forecast turns out to be wrong. Even today, the fact that a few scientists predicted a global cooling in the 1970s is still used to undermine the credibility of climate science, even though at the time it was just a small minority of scientists making such claims and they never convinced many of their peers. If different groups of scientists have a public bet running on this, this will signal to the public that this forecast is not a widely supported consensus of the climate science community, in contrast to the IPCC reports (about which we are in complete agreement with Keenlyside and his colleagues). Some media reports even suggested that the IPCC scenarios were now superseded by this "improved" forecast."
I have a 38 oz vintage Louisville Slugger that would be perfect for clubbing baby seals which we could then deliver (minus that annoying fur) to the Polar Bear food bank.
That’s a wonderful idea. I had not considered feeding the poor starving bears, nor what to feed them if we did.
Seals! Of course!
And that solves the problem of the fur bikinis for the Sweedish Bikini team members (and all 200 coaches for the team).
And it's all 'natural and biodegradable' too.
I hope the same is true with the Swedish Bikini Team. We better check them out just to make sure.
We were going to put the 12-foot pool out this weekend for the kids. I'm wearing a sweater, sipping hot tea and wearing slippers ... forecast is a high of 59 this Friday. Kids are stupid ... maybe they won't notice ... awwww kids ... the pool is for you ... Mommy and Daddy don't want to come in and spoil your fun.
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