Posted on 06/21/2008 8:11:34 AM PDT by Brices Crossroads
With the Gallup poll of June 20, 2008 reporting that Congress's approval is at an all time low (in the 35 year history of this survey question), and with the salient issue of oil prices taking center stage in the 2008 election, John McCain's strategy and objectives have become clear. He must attempt to tie Obama to the miserably unpopular Democratic Congress. The bridge for making the connection between Obama and the unpopular Congress is the issue of oil prices and drilling. It is a simple issue. Gas prices were at roughly $2 a gallon in 2006 before the Democrats took over. They have doubled in a single year. He should ask the question: What has the Congress, controlled by Obama's party, done about it? Nothing. What does Obama propose to do about it? Nothing. McCain wants to begin drilling offshore. Obama's response is that this will not reduce the price of gas immediately. This is patent nonsense. The price is artificially high now. There are no shortages, and it is driven up by the speculation that has gripped the markets that oil prices will continue their rise unabated. If the Congress were to open up America's own huge reserves of oil, not only offshore but in ANWR and oil shale, the speculation that has fueled this price rise would begin to abate, perhaps rapidly, because those who purchase oil futures would be afraid to purchase them at $150 a barrel when in a year or two, America's massive new production could drive the price drastically lower. The fear which drove the price up rapidly will drive the price down just as rapidly. The consequences for the economy, needless to say, would be nothing short of spectacular.
McCain should make this argument, explaining to people that they will get more or less immediate relief if Congress should take these actions (not to mention the construction of new refineries-we have not had a new one in 30 years- and the nuclear plants that McCain has already proposed).
Obama will be isolated with the enviro-leftists, and will be unable to "flip flop" to a pro-drilling position for fear of alienating his own base. The "Drill Now, Pay Less" argument, and Congress' deliberate inaction on this issue, also serve to link Obama to the Democrat Congress, which cancels and perhaps reverses, any drag which Bush represented for McCain.
This strategy can have down ballot consequences as well. If the GOP can nationalize the election around this issue, as I believe they can, they can reverse the results in Districts such as the three (in Mississippi, Louisiana and Illinois) that recently went Democratic. Even if the freshmen Democratic incumbents support drilling (as I believe they would, given their respective districts' conservative bent), the GOP could argue convincingly that as long as San Francisco Democrat Nancy Pelosi is Speaker, legislation lifting the ban on drilling will never make it to the House floor. Since these allegedly conservative Democrat congressmen vote for her for Speaker, they are complicit in her deliberate refusal to bring the legislation up and thus they too are responsible for the higher gas prices.
McCain's strategy is clear. Tie the albatross of the Congress and oil prices around Obama's neck. Done effectively, this issue will turn what I believe would have been a fairly comfortable win by McCain anyway into a landslide. And, significantly, it would cost the Democrats control of the Congress as well.
“With Congress’s approval at 12% and gas at $4, McCain’s strategy is clear”
Run against congress? Where has he been for the last 20 years? He has ONE shot; gas stays high, he hammers Obama on the drilling and refining and nuke plants. It also wouldn’t hurt if he picked a hard right VP.
Al that happens and he has a CHANCE.
Will drilling here really save any money? The oil companies are still going to try to get as much as the market will bear. Congress will want to add another energy tax to it. I’m thinking we might slow the cost down but I don’t see a drop in prices.
The writer lost me when he said it would cost the Democrats control of Congress, too.
In a year that points to increasing Dem majorities in both chambers, we would be so fortunate to limit our losses or at most gain a little here and there.
Even a McCain landslide (not predicting one, mind you) wouldn’t lead to a Republican TAKEOVER.
A real hard right. We need to get serious about other forms of energy too.
McCain’s strategy would be a lot clearer with some legislation. He is still a senator.
Well, maybe. But I'm not sure the distain is for the "Democratic Congress", but rather for Congress in general. Beyond Tom Coburn and James Inhofe, I can't think of very many Pubbies who have distinguished themselves lately, either.
My husband contends that if we start drilling the Saudis will do what they can to lower their prices to discourage us from drilling.
America is awash with energy resources. But we have placed the vast majority of them off limits.
If we begin to drill, and everyone knows that new supplies are in the offing down the line, it will affect the marketplace price of fuel by depressing it.
These would be supplies outside the Cartel’s control.
Price is crucial but even price is not everything. We need to get off foreign oil, for national security sake.
And should have long ago...
The key is to explain that merely authorizing the drilling offshore would drive the price down immediately because the speculators are betting that Congress will not authorize the drilling. If Congress does authorize the drilling, there will be a stampede to sell the oil futures, thus driving the price per barrel, and at the pump, down.
Obama is spouting the Marxist line that authorizing the drilling will have no effect on oil prices for years. This would be true only if there were shortages, which there are not. This price spike is driven by speculation, which is based on the theory that drilling will not expand. It is not driven by shortages. If drilling appears to be on the horizon, this will change the mindset of the market, to wit: the speculators. And they will bid the price back down, for fear that a glut of oil in the near future will cause their oil futures to be worthless, thereby ruining them.
Drilling is a “long” term strategy to make us energy independent. That is a National Security Issue. Whether or not it lowers prices in the short term is irrelevant. It will lower prices in the long term and make our country free from the whims of the Hugo Chavez’s and the Middle East. That is what needs to be emphasized.
Obama is PART OF the miserably unpopular Democrat Congress. Bring out the roll call records and make him eat his own Socialism!
Then with lower prices, it's not profitable to drill and we're right back where we were ten years ago and my SUV is cool again.
We need candidates that recognize the fact that big government is the cause of our problems not the solution. We need people willing to stand up and say that the Dept of Energy needs to be dismantled and the government needs to get out of the energy business. Sadly, there are few in the GOP that believe that.
Can we really be energy independent?
Senator Jeff Sessions.
I also like my Senator John Cornyn.
But you’re right, there aren’t very many.
There are a few good House members as well. Marsha Blackburn, Steve King, Jeb Hensarling to name some, and maybe others can cite their favorites.
Good luck with that one. The inner workings of most polls show that the Republicans are receiving more blame than the Democrats in congress from the sheeple who probably have no realization of who is now running both Houses.
We can if as a nation we had the will to do it. Going to the Moon, winning WW II all took the nations determination. If we had that same determination to be energy independent we could do it.
Captain Queeg actually has to grow a pair in order for that to happen. He would need to articulate a clear conservative vision for energy independence from the Arabs. He would need to hammer Obama and the Democrats for preventing domestic drilling and nuclear power plants for 25 years. I dont see him doing that.
There is a way to get to energy independence, just not in the short term.
We could’ve been there by now if we had drilled all out and built new refineries and gone more nuclear and developed more new technologies starting long ago.
Liberals aren't too smart when it comes to government structure issues.
Only because Republicans have been stupidly waiting for the LameStream Media to take Congress to task for not getting out of the way of the American people.
Republicans have to take the fight themselves--point out the utter VAPIDITY of Hussein, Pelosi, and Reid. Those three jokers have NO CLUE about what makes America great. Instead, they dawdle and give speeches and denigrate the troops. Republicans have to point that out!
“In a year that points to increasing Dem majorities in both chambers, we would be so fortunate to limit our losses or at most gain a little here and there.”
Politics is nothing if it not shifting sands. Four to xix months ago, the signs were ominous for the Republicans points that way based upon MSM polls, which are not tremendously reliable. But a nationalized election built around an issue of economic populism as powerful as gas prices can completely change the dynamic. Without an issue nearly as powerful as this in 1994, the Republicans were able to nationalize the election based upon the contract the America. Almost every pundit was predicting Democratic retention of the House and Senate in 1994. Only Bob Novak predicted the dimensions of the GOP landslide in 1994 (a 52 seat gain).
Here, you have an issue which is far more powerful than 1994 when the GOP basically had Clinton’s ineptitude in this first two years to fuel their surge. Oil prices touch everyone and everyone wants to see them lower. If people make the connection between drilling and lower prices, the opponents of drilling better look out for that freight train.
Newt Gingrich (who was the architect of the Contract with America in 1994), who I do not always agree with, understands this and he has been the architect of the “Drill here, Drill Now, Pay Less” campaign.
I agree with that. People are going to be disappointed and angry when gas doesn’t drop significantly though. I was thinking we might need to ration again. Something like a low cost for the first 100 gallons a month and then a higher rate with truckers exempt. JAT.
I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again:
If you took a proper poll and asked the proper sampling of Americans whether or not they know which party controls congress and is therefore most responsible legislatively for our current troubles, I think we’d be surprised how many are blaming Republicans for things that Democrats are controlling.
Also, even fewer pollees would know that while Republicans did control Congress, the Dems and a few liberal Republicans managed to get us far down the road to the mess we’re in, and that a Repub Congress once passed ANWR drilling in the 90s but Clinton (a Dem) vetoed it.
By now the oil supplies we should have generated would be online and helping to keep prices down and us less dependent on foreign oil.
The price will stabalize at a point that makes it economical to extract the hard to get oil. i.e. deepwater, shale etc.
My guess $50 to $90 per barrel.
Short term:
1. remove federal taxes from gasoline.
2. pressure states to remove state taxes.
3. remove mandates on fuel blends.
4. remove ethanol requirements for gasoline.
5. remove restrictions on coal use
Medium term:
1. remove draconian taxes from oil companies.
2. open areas to drilling
3. encourage construction of refineries in US
4. encourage construction of nuclear plants in US
long term:
1. allow free market to explore alternative energy sources
2. allow free market to improve fuel mileage on its own
3. muzzle algore
4. teach Congress to restrain itself and to stick to its Constitutional roles.
The MSM was bleating about Bush's "all time low" approval rating all last week -- but no mention about the Democrat controlled Congress. Gee, I wonder why?
Yep, somehow even negative popularity numbers would not translate to losses for Democrats. There are too many firmly entrenched mind-numbed robots who automatically pull for them regardless of how they act or try to destroy the country.
There's also the "Yeah, Congress sucks, but MY GUY is OK cuz he gets me stuff" mentality which all but ensures reelection for incumbents. (as long as they are Democrats).
As for Conservatives-- one "scandal" can translate to "throw all the bums out". Go figure.
I agree.
It will find it’s level that will allow for more expensive extraction, but well below where it is now.
mark for later
He has it made actually. The media, in their fight against Bush, labeled him a maverick who bucked the Washington establishment. Now he can literally run against Obama, congress AND Bush.
Honestly, despite what the polls may show, McCain is possibly in the strongest position possible.
Except for the fact that John McCain has been perhaps the most powerful member of Congress for the last decade, and therefore bears more responsibility than anyone for its abysmal performance.
What's the old definition of insanity?
"Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result each time?"
The country has gone insane, and so has the Republican Whig Party.
This is a red herring. We are too serious about "other forms of energy".
We should get real serious about oil, coal and nuclear. Wind mills, solar and perpetual motion machines are cute but cannot perform the heavy lifting that's required in today's economy.
Stop that. He’s changed his spots and is going to fix everything. Don’t you know that he has an 85% rate of something? ;’)
Amen to that!
And the horses and candles would be highly taxed and regulated...
The entire industry has been hard at work. There is no magic wand. Why is it that this is not understood. Much of the new technology has come from NASA and private industry both foreign and domestic. If we expect Government to do anything, forget it. We have, and have had, for years the most ineffective bunch of egotistical, crooked, bunch of nitwits throughout Government. Government solves nothing.
You mean other than "MacCain-Feingold", "MacCain-Kennedy", "MacCain-Lieberman", "The Gang of 14" or "The Keating Five"?
Fugedaboutit! Given his propensity to make conservative pronouncements yet sponsor leftist legislation, I'm afraid of what he'd do. The best the GOP can hope for is to find someone besides Don Rickles's twin between now and November.
Pshaw...I’m so “unappeasable,” ain’t I...
Just can’t adjust to the new socialism.
But it WOULD drop significantly if we did the right things.
I disagree that the oil companies trying to get all the market would bear would keep the price as high as it is now.
The market price itself would be influenced downward if we did the right things, so that whatever the stable price came to be would not be susceptible to oil companies somehow forcing it higher than that. That’s what a market does.
You also said congress could just raise taxes even higher. They COULD, but my premise was that if we did all the right things, market forces would force the price down. Part of doing the right things would be NOT to raise taxes.
I’m talking about, we need a gov’t policy that promotes and allows all the right things, then people would see lower prices.
Let them. Seriuously. First, in the mean time we’ll keep drilling until it becomes economically unreasonable. In the mean time the 2 additional sources of extra oil will speed the decline in price. THEN, when oil creeps up again we aren’t drilling but simply uncapping already drilled wells, which is a far less expensive proposition and has already begun in certain areas. It’s also not uncommon for wells that seemed tapped out to have recharged in the interim, meaning another readily available source of oil.
Frankly, while I am not on the anti-Big Oil bandwagon, having grown up in the oil patch I have no doubt that increasing domestic production at least somewhat is not as difficult as some have said. Lots of abandoned wells out there, and the improved technology and tendency for recharging makes me think many of them could be pumping again in short order if the people holding the leases really wanted to make it happen,
Sir, with all due respect, I don't know if that nation exists any longer. John-Boy, Teddy K and Jorge Bush have helped insure that we become politically ineffective but at least be a beautiful melange of diversity with their support of porous borders. (Divide and conquer?)
I’m not saying the election can’t be influenced for the better.
I’m saying, in my opinion, even a McCain landslide (not predicting one) would not equal a transfer of massive proportions in the House and Senate to Republican Rule.
That’s my view.
You’re welcome to yours that such a massive transfer from Dem to Repub is achievable this election year.
All are important. Oil , coal and ...I don’t know about nuclear...are priorities but we also have to think outside of the box. We will eventually run out of the grease and will need alternatives. Besides...I would rather find a way to be off the grid and not be a slave for energy to our government. People need to figure out how to take care of themselves...whether with solar...wind or whatever while the government explores or opens energy sources we have right now.
What the media and the pols are ignoring is that the economy is reaching critical mass.
IF YOU BOUGHT IT, A TRUCK BROUGHT IT
Get that drilled into your heads.
No one is reporting on what's happening to the trucking industry. Truckers and trucking companies are dropping like flies.
Hundreds have folded in the last few weeks - where there was a great shortage of truckers, the industry is now flooded with out of work drivers and parked trucks.
There are -= were - some 6,000 trucking co.s in the US - now, even some of the top 100 are folding. And even JB Hunt, a giant among giants, has pulled hundreds of their solo driver off and into running team driving, like it or not. Trucking is a hard life, living on the road, their living space the size of a small bathroom.
Solo, you at least sleep in a still truck and aren't sharing your little cave 24/7 with someone else. Team driving means that truck rolls nearly 24/7 and you sleep in a rocking truck, praying the other driver doesn't get into an accident.
The big companies lease trucks to their contracted drivers - usually on a 6-month basis, and their lease yards normally have revolving trucks as drivers continually end or start a lease and choose another truck. 6 months ago, the lease yards would be relatively slim pickings for choices as the turned in trucks were leased right out again,
Now, the lease yards are choked - as more and more drivers have gone belly up with the fuel prices.
We haven't felt the results of all this too much yet in the stores - but it is coming and if something drastic isn't done NOW - we will. And it ain't gonna be pretty folks.
Most people are blissfully unaware, for example, that the stores = like the supermarkets - have ONLY about 2 days of stock on the shelves. If the trucks stop rolling - those shelves are bare in 2 days. First will come the slow down on deliveries and our stores will look like the days of Communist Russia, with sparse goods on the shelves and long lines...
And Humpty Dumpty doesn't get put back together in a hurry.
This is the first layer of consequences from an encroaching Marxist takeover orchestrated by the Marxists, aka democrats, in DC. They have even let the cat out of the bag by saying out loud that they intend to Nationalize the oil companies - that would soon follow with the trucking industry and all other major businesses.
Fasten your seat belts, folks. It ain't gonna be pretty.
Dig in a get the Marxists out now, or get ready to live under Marxism/Communism.
Anyone who spouts the foolish tripe about letting the Marxist candidate in now and then we can regain control in 2012 is either a naive fool or an outright Marxist. If they get the WH this time - the Constitution will be null and void, the Electoral College will be no more (anybody been listening for the past 8 years? They have stated, again and again, that this is their goal. To kill the EC would nullify red states voters. The Founding Fathers knew that without the protection of the EC, the big city voters would decide elections.)
I pray God protects us - altho' with the things we have allowed to happen in this country, I sometimes wonder why He would bother.
Except for the fact that he has no base.
/s
Ever seen a building with no foundation? What do you think is going to happen to it the first time the heavy rains come down?
Wish I had some Photoshop skills. I'd put a McCain '08 sign on the side of that building...
Several years ago here in CA, our state’s economic plight was so bad that we recalled the then Dem Gov. Gray Davis and replaced him with a Repub Arnold Schwartzenager. Unfortunately, we didn’t replace the state legislature also and now thisngs are actually more bleak than they were before.
Somehow, I don’t see libs leaving the farm.
“Fundamentally there is no difference between McCain and Obama - they both believe it is the role of government to solve the world’s problems.”
To say there is no difference between Obama and McCain suggests that you have not done your research. I see you just signed up over here and if you are trying to spread disaffection for McCain, I don’t think it will work here.
Differences? Let’s see.
Taxes: McCain wants to make the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts permanent. Obama want to let them expire, a massive tax increase. How exactly is McCain’s position on taxes fundamentally as statist as Obama’s statist as Obama’s.
Spending: McCain has consistently opposed earmarks, which grow government at the expense of the taxpayer. Obama favors them. McCain has opposed big ticket government spending such as the $1.2 trillion prescription drug benefit, the $386 billion highway bill and the gigantic Agriculture Bill just passed by Congress. Obama has proposed even more spending than this. How is McCain’s position equally as statist as Obama’s?
Second Amendment- McCain has a nearly perfect rating form the NRA in protecting the Second Amendment. Obama is a gun grabber extraordinaire who tired to pass a bill in the Illinois Senate that would subject the VICTIMS of burglary to prosecution if they have a gun stolen in the burglary and it is used to commit a crime UNLESS the Victim of the Burglary can prove that he took “reasonable steps”: to secure it. How exactly is McCain’s position on the Second Amendment fundamentally as statist as Obama’s?
I haven’t even mentioned the radically different approaches of Obama and McCain on medical care, in which Obama would have the government gobble up an industry that is one seventh of the entire U.S. Economy. McCain firmly opposes government run health care.
You will find most people on this site to be too well informed to buy outlandish statements such as that McCain and Obama are both fundamentally the same as far as statism is concerned.
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