Click on image for high-resolution/printable versions.
Pass this on. Please let me know if the links go bad. If you need different sizes just let me know and I will do my best to get you what you need. Thank you.
Posted on 07/28/2008 6:09:07 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Yesterday the Gallup Tracking Poll showed Obama ahead by 9 points (49-40). Earlier today (Monday) that dropped to Obama ahead by 8 points (48-40). Both were of registered voters.
Now Gallup/USA Today released a new poll of LIKELY voters, showing a 4 point lead for McCain, his first lead in any major poll since early May.
The switch from registered to likely voters explains most of the difference.
Yet this jumping around does not inspire confidence in Gallup:
Republican presidential candidate John McCain moved from being behind by 6 points among "likely" voters a month ago to a 4-point lead over Democrat Barack Obama among that group in the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll. McCain still trails slightly among the broader universe of "registered" voters. By both measures, the race is tight.
The Friday-Sunday poll, mostly conducted as Obama was returning from his much-publicized overseas trip and released just this hour, shows McCain now ahead 49%-45% among voters that Gallup believes are most likely to go to the polls in November. In late June, he was behind among likely voters, 50%-44%.
Among registered voters, McCain still trails Obama, but by less. He is behind by 3 percentage points in the new poll (47%-44%) vs. a 6-point disadvantage (48%-42%) in late June.
Results based on the survey of 791 likely voters have margins of error of +/- 4 percentage points — so McCain's lead is not outside that range. Results based on the survey of 900 registered voters also have margins of error of +/- 4 percentage points.
Gallup editor Frank Newport tells Jill that "registered voters are much more important at the moment," because Election Day is still 100 days away, but that the likely-voter result suggests that it may be possible for McCain to energize Republicans and turn them out this fall.
Note that Obama's lead among even registered voters has dropped precipitously from 9% to 8% to 3% in data from Gallup added to Real Clear Politics since midnight Sunday night. Indeed, both the 8% and the 3% results were for polls taken the same three days surveying apparently different samples of the same population, registered voters — strange but not surprising, given the low response rates for most public opinion polls these days.
I honestly doubt the polls have changed. I believe the pollsters, good little Dims that so many of them are, have second thoughts about Obama and are trying to do their part to have him lose in Denver.
McCain is 4 points up, and he is "insignificantly" ahead.
Imean this isn't worth shooting anyone over, but it sure gives a slant to the sled.
We all should just give up the election and annoint King Obama now?
I laughed at this ridiculous excuse for an article which tries to pass as political journalism.
The reason it is called an ‘insignificant’ lead is because the 4 point lead is within the +/- 4 percentage point margin of error.
But I believe McCain will win, and win big. Obama has too much going against him: his race, his friends, his ideology, and his egotistical personality.
I wish where everything was today meant it was going to be the winner in the end since the Cubs have the best record in the National League. And are beating the media’s new God in baseball CC Sabathia as I type this.
It’s amazing how many jumps and falls we’ve seen in polling for both which means these polls are baloney sausage in high heels when it happens without a major scandal or after a convention.
Its INSIGNIFICANT I tell you, INSIGNIFICANT. Are you listening to what I say? INSIGNIFICANT. INSIGNIFICANT. You are not listening to me. You must listen to me. LISTEN to me!
Beck’s got one of his headlines for tomorrow. I can’t wait to see the one “Obama gets kissed by beauties on both cheeks, while McCain has a hunk of his cheek torn off for a biopsy.”
McCain is beginning to seem the more likely one to win. He is beginning to be more likable as he states his case against Obama. Obama on the other hand appears to be full of himself and a little too impressed with himself the way an educated idiot would be. McCain is doing a good job of making it clear he is not a clone of George W. Bush. It is always insulting to be accused of being a clone, no matter who it is one is being compared to. It is good that McCain appears to be using some of his leadership skills during this election.
yes...
a shift of 13pts in on poll over a three day period is “insignificant”...only when it is a Republican on the better end of the 13pt shift that is....
I noted that one of the network’s airheads pointed out how regal Obama looked in contrast to Sarkozy. Seems that the Dalai Obama is taller. She pointed out that McCain will suffer by comparison in the debates. Yeah, right! The late Audie Murphy was just a bit over five feet and he could have whipped this imposter’s ass.
...is insignificantly ahead anything like a little bit pregnant?
Then many people here better get to the polls. If enough conservatives decide to sit this one out, they will be directly responsible for the socialist muslim B. Hussein Obama getting elected, instead of John "not conservative enought but a heck of a lot better than the other guy" McCain.
JP
Well maybe, but It may mean that the Obama journalist supporters are saying that the pregnancy will not last long, because the polls are now going to be so rigged that McCain will always be significantly behind!
They hope to confine McCain in his bed, convincing him that his water will break quite prematurely otherwise.
I have to laugh at these liberal socialists. They mean to win at any cost, even at the destruction of our Republic and a fair electoral campaign.
I hope they keep it up so strongly that the public will simply laugh at their arcane machinations of poll demographics and interpretation.
Obama will lose. Its been cast in stone ever since he got up in front of the Brandenburg gate. He did not rise to the occasion.The whole international trip portrayed him as an insignificant, stammering , little man with megalomanic pretensions to grandure.
Now they seek to rebuilt his broken messianic image. Well , Humpty Dumpty and all that. Its time to lay it on really thick.
This is what this thread article is all about, they are trying to warn people off in the realm of journalism.The journalists smell blood. The feeding frenzy is about to begin.
We need to have the Germans, the French, and the rest of the Europeans do the same thing to voters in OH, NV, MN, PA, and WI this year!
The MSM and the rest of the Dims are praising Obama so much that they put a very high expectation for him. With news about Obama almost 24hrs per day, slowly, the election becomes a referendum on Obama.
promise?
Wow...these polls really are all over the place.
What this means - little/no Europe Bump for Barry.
This is going to be interesting.
Click on image for high-resolution/printable versions.
Pass this on. Please let me know if the links go bad. If you need different sizes just let me know and I will do my best to get you what you need. Thank you.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.