Posted on 08/08/2008 3:37:46 PM PDT by neverdem
Russia sent troops and dozens of tanks and armoured vehicles into the breakaway Georgian province of South Ossetia today, vowing to protect its citizens in a move described by Tbilisi's pro-Western Government as an act of war.
A South Ossetian rebel minister said that more than 1,000 people had been killed in overnight shelling of the city of Tskhinvali, the separatist capital which Georgia claimed today to have captured.
In probably the most serious regional crisis since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, at least 50 Russian tanks – and possibly many more – rumbled through the Roki tunnel, which cuts through the Caucasus mountains separating South Ossetia from the Russian province of North Ossetia.
The Russian incursion came after Georgian forces moved to regain control of the region that broke away along with rebel Abkhazia in the 1990s. Russia backs the separatists in both provinces and has its own peacekeeping forces there.
"One hundred and fifty Russian tanks, armoured personnel carriers and other vehicles have entered South Ossetia," President Saakashvili of Georgia told reporters in Tbilisi. "This is a clear intrusion on another country’s territory. We have Russian tanks on our territory, jets on our territory in broad daylight."
Mr Saakashvili added that Georgian forces had downed two Russian jet fighters over Georgian territory.
Georgia mobilised its reservists yesterday and launched a massive offensive overnight. Fighting raged today around the city of Tskhinvali, the regional capital, as Georgian troops backed by tanks and warplanes pounded separatist forces,
Eduard Kokoity, the South Ossetian rebel leader, said that there were "hundreds of dead civilians" in the city...
(Excerpt) Read more at timesonline.co.uk ...
How many divisions does Georgia have and how many divisions do her allies have?
Anybody got a frequency for an English language broadcasting short-wave station in Georgia that might be able to be received on the East Coast of the US?
5040.0 Radio Tbilisi, Tbilisi, Georgia
Maybe they have some English programs?
Georgia is about the same size and with the same population as South Carolina, so it is a mismatch between them and Russia.
If Russia has its quality tank crews there and the latest T-80s, then Georgia could be in big trouble with their T-72’s, no matter how good their crews are.
The fact that russia starting bombing military air facilities today means its trying to gain full air domination. Once you have that, their ground forces will be pretty unstopable.
But they better take a lesson from what happened to Israel in the Lebannon war once they started rolling tanks in. Hezbollah was equiped with new portable anti-tank missiles, most likely russian in design, that could easily take out even the most heavily armored tank. If the Georgians have something like the US Javelin, TOW, or Russian Kornet, the russians will take heavy armour losses very easily.
Allies?
----- except ----
US tells Russia to halt attacks in South Ossetia
By FOSTER KLUG – 17 minutes ago
WASHINGTON (AP) — The United States urged Russia on Friday to halt aircraft and missile attacks in Georgia's breakaway region of South Ossetia and withdraw its combat forces from Georgian territory as the situation in the former Soviet state verged on full-scale war.
The White House said President Bush discussed the situation with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin while both leaders were in Beijing for the start of the Olympics. And Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice called the parties involved in hopes of ending the fighting, and made plans to send a U.S. envoy to the region.
"The United States calls for an immediate cease-fire to the armed conflict in Georgia's region of South Ossetia," Rice said in a statement. "We call on Russia to cease attacks on Georgia by aircraft and missiles, respect Georgia's territorial integrity and withdraw its ground combat forces from Georgian soil."
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"If the whole world does not stop Russia today, then Russian tanks will be able to reach any other European capital," President Mikheil Saakashvili said.
If the Russians are serious, Georgia doesn’t have a chance, IMHO. Tanks and armor won’t win any war for those in Georgia. If the Russians throw in substantial air power, it’s all but over. Tanks/armor make great targets, and they blow up real good.
Red Alert Intelligence Guidance: The Conflict in South Ossetia
STRATFOR TODAY » August 8, 2008 | 1737 GMT
Georgian troops fire rockets at separatist South Ossetian troops Aug. 8
Editor’s Note: The following is an internal Stratfor document produced to provide high-level guidance to our analysts. This document is not a forecast, but rather a series of guidelines for understanding and evaluating events, as well as suggestions on areas for focus.
Given the speed with which the Russians reacted to Georgia’s incursion into South Ossetia, Moscow was clearly ready to intervene. We suspect the Georgians were set up for this in some way, but at this point the buildup to the conflict no longer matters. What matters is the message that Russia is sending to the West.
Russian President Dmitri Medvedev summed this message up best: “Historically Russia has been, and will continue to be, a guarantor of security for peoples of the Caucasus.”
Strategically, we said Russia would respond to Kosovo’s independence, and they have. Russia is now declaring the Caucasus to be part of its sphere of influence. We have spoken for months of how Russia would find a window of opportunity to redefine the region. This is happening now.
All too familiar with the sight of Russian tanks, the Baltic countries are terrified of what they face in the long run, and they should be. This is the first major Russian intervention since the fall of the Soviet Union. Yes, Russia has been involved elsewhere. Yes, Russia has fought. But this is on a new order of confidence and indifference to general opinion. We will look at this as a defining moment.
The most important reaction will not be in the United States or Western Europe. It is the reaction in the former Soviet states that matters most right now. That is the real audience for this. Watch the reaction of Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Nagorno-Karabakh and the Balts. How will Russia’s moves affect them psychologically?
The Russians hold a trump card with the Americans: Iran. They can flood Iran with weapons at will. The main U.S. counter is in Ukraine and Central Asia, but is not nearly as painful.
Tactically, there is only one issue: Will the Russians attack Georgia on the ground? If they are going to, the Russians have likely made that decision days ago.
Focus on whether Russia invades Georgia proper. Then watch the former Soviet states. The United States and Germany are of secondary interest at this point.
I’ll give it a try. Thanks.
All the other former Soviet Republics, along with Poland, had better step up to the plate and help Georgia. Because I guarantee you this won’t stop with Georgia.
The US will not start a war with Russia over this. We can't even fully support our fights in Iraq and Afghanistan. It is 7 years almost after 911, and we still haven't spooled up our repair and supply, let along expanded.
Georgia and eastern Europe is sadly on their own.
On the other hand... we could sell them all the weaponry they want... while providing interest-free loans.
They should get it free.
“The US will not start a war with Russia over this. We can’t even fully support our fights in Iraq and Afghanistan. It is 7 years almost after 911, and we still haven’t spooled up our repair and supply, let along expanded.
Georgia and eastern Europe is sadly on their own.”
I have an idea. Let’s hire Obama for President of the USA. He’ll solve it all, won’t he. He’s good at this sort of thing, lots of experience, really, .....
That’s an obvious cry of HELP!
I disagree. Why did it start with them? This confrontation goes back years.
The russians have not committed even 1/1000th of their mil power to this matter. One Tu-22 raid on Tbilisi and its all over. That, or a PGM on Sakashvili. But thats not the russian way. A 150 tanks is not even stretching local resources.
Dunno where this will all end.
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