SurveyUSA: In Washington State, McCain-Palin Slices Into Obama-Biden (Palin Helping Dino Rossi)

SurveyUSA ^ | 09/08/08 | SurveyUSA

[Burma Jones]

I think in a worst-case scenario, BO could definitely take OH, NM and NV. Even if you think OH is out of reach for him, but CO is not, I’d think at least NM and likely NV are possibles. However, the trend is indeed our friend. Probably some twists and turns on the way to Nov. 4, though.

[RockinRight]

I’m speaking of worst-case WITH current momentum. That could change by election day.

[JohnnyZ]

Oregon and Washington should not be close. These are Kerry states.

Kerry won Washington by 7 and Oregon by 4. Both could be considered battleground states, but in a close election only Oregon has a chance of flipping. Gore only carried Oregon by 0.4%, though Nader took 5%.

[conservative cat]

Actually, McCain would do himself some good to campaign in the Spokane area and in rural Oregon. Maybe a day or two in the more GOP-leaning Portland and Seattle suburbs.

Send Palin to Pierce and Snohomish counties. Send McCain to Bellevue. Pierce is very blue collar, so gets the working man's Democrat vote. Seattle itself is mostly a loss cause. Bellevue is Rhino land and McCain will do well there.

[GOPGuide]

“McCain will not win Washington if the race is close nationally. I’m not terribly confident about Oregon, either.
But Rossi could win, which would be both hugh and series.”

The trend is against Obama. I know McCain isn’t likely to win Washington, but it is interesting that he is breathing down Obama’s neck in a state that SHOULD be a gimme for the Democrats in a Democrat year.

And if its close in WA, then Palin might pull Rossi over the finish line even if McCain loses the state himself.

[JohnnyZ]

Among men, Obama leads by 4 today, a 5-point shift toward Obama from last month, when McCain led by 1 Very odd change.

The change is within the margin of error, especially considering the smaller subsample of men.

[conservative cat]

Hey, again! I agree that Rossi could use the help, but as I said to someone else in another thread, he could tone down the “if you’re voting for Obama, vote for me, too” ads. Yuck.

[conservative cat]

The change is within the margin of error, especially considering the smaller subsample of men.

I think there are a few sexists, still. Maybe not 5 points worth, but there are a few. I have a non-native-born (but now citizen) coworker who suddenly swung to Obama with the Palin choice..but his culture is very sexist. He says it's her experience, but I don't buy it.

[Junior_G]

I like your best case scenario, but if Washington goes Republican I’ll eat my hat. This place is so freakishly leftist, it’s a source of constant depression for me. Also, the Seattle Times and Seattle P-I began churning out anti-Palin hit pieces immediately upon her announcement as the VP nominee. I think they feel that their proximity to her home state obligates them to take the lead on the smears.

[SunkenCiv]

boiled down, easier to read:

• Obama 49%, McCain 45%
• Among voters with no college education, continuing movement to McCain
• Among voters who earn less than $50K a year, continuing movement to McCain
• Obama's once 26-point lead among the lower-income group is now 5 points
• McCain's advantage among Conservatives has grown from 4:1 in May to 11:1
• Among voters older than McCain, Obama had led by 24 points in July, now trails by 1
• In Eastern Washington state, Obama led 5:4 in June, but McCain leads 2:1 today
• Among women, McCain is up 9 points from June, Obama is down 11
• McCain continues to gain ground among female voters since he picked Sarah Palin
• Among men, Obama leads by 4 today, McCain led by 1 last month
• moving to Republican Dino Rossi in the race for Governor
• Among women, female Democrat Gregoire had led by 24 points in May
• (About two-thirds occurred before Sarah Palin became the VP nominee)
• among men, Rossi had led by 20 points in May, but leads by 2 points today
• Voters without a college degree are shifting Republican in the contest for Governor
• (Rossi and Gregoire were tied among the lesser educated in April, May, June and July)
• (Rossi and Gregoire were tied in April, May, June and July; today, Rossi leads by 12 points)
• In Eastern WA Rossi leads by 31 points
• Gregoire was elected in 2004; multiple recounts were needed to determine the winner
• (uh, no)
• (for example)

[ConservativeMan55]

Did you see this one Miss Didi?

[SunkenCiv]

Obama May Delay Reversing Tax Cuts
ap | 09/07/08 | ap
Posted on 09/08/2008 7:20:21 PM PDT by tomnbeverly
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2077838/posts

[snip] Democrat Barack Obama says he would delay rescinding President Bush’s tax cuts on wealthy Americans if he becomes the next president and the economy is in a recession, suggesting such an increase would further hurt the economy. [end]

“It’ll be okay to hurt the economy in future years, just not right away at the beginning of my reign, er, term. Hurting the economy would hurt working people, and that would be contrary to my Muslim faith.”

[NavyCanDo]

Agree. Rossi is running a terrible campaign. Polls may show the campaign is neck and neck, but he is going to loose if he doesn't do a much better job. If you can remember, Rush Limbaugh came to the Puyallup Fairgrounds GOP picnic to support John Carlson in 2000. Rush has never done that for a candidate before. Even with that superstar endorsement Carlson lost by huge margins.
Washington is a tough nut to crack for the GOP.

[Burma Jones]

If we see M-P expend real resources in Oregon/Washington, I certainly hope it’s because they really think they can win, rather than a game of “let’s spend resources there to make the other side spend resources there.” Odds are this ends up as a knife-fight to get to 270 EV, but if the momentum continues, maybe you can get Wisconsin and make a run at Minnesota, or get Oregon and make a run at Washington.

[editor-surveyor]

Sarah has California in the bag.

Obummer has no chance here. Mexicans see him as taxing them out of their jobs. They were touting McCain before the Palin miracle, but the pollsters will not poll them. (can you say Push Poll?)

[word_warrior_bob]

California? That would mean a tsunami. I’m not quite THAT enthusiastic. LOL

I heard we cut the lead in D.C. down to 81.

I am expecting McCain to pick up a majority of the states that Bush lost by 5% or less in 2004.

[word_warrior_bob]

What site is that? I want to play with the maps too.

[word_warrior_bob]

Those are some tectonic shifts, momentum, momentum, momentum.

That RAT stole that last election didn’t she?

[SunkenCiv]

That sums it up nicely.

[volunbeer]

“Washington is a tough nut to crack for the GOP”

Yes it is. The Rossi campaign has been a disappointment so far.