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Posted on 09/15/2008 4:39:55 PM PDT by RobFromGa
FROM NOV 2008 election, here’s a list of the 35 Senate races. (including 33 regular and the MS & WY special elections)
The GOP is defending 23 seats, and the Dems defend 12.
THere are 65 Senate seats that are not up for election. The GOP starts with 26 carryover seats, and the Dems start with 39 (counting the 2 “independents” Lieberman-CT and Sanders-VT).
I was way TOO OPTIMISTIC in the 2006 Midterms, so I am trying to be less optimistic this time...
There are another 26 seats that appear SAFE, barring some major change of events over the next 50 days— 15 for the GOP (incl the 2 special elections) and 12 for the Dems.
I look to get input from fellow Freepers in order to update this information.
I plan to put up a new thread on October 1 with the updates and information on the various Senate primaries. And then again on November 1.
There are 8 seats that appear to be in play...
SAFE GOP SEATS [15]
AL- (R= current seatholder)- Sessions safe
GA- R- Chambliss safe
ID- R- Risch (open-CRAIG seat) safe
KS- R- Roberts safe
KY- R- McConnell safe
ME- R- Collins safe
MS- R- Cochran safe
MS- R- Wicker (interim/special) safe
NE- R- Johanns (open-HAGEL seat) safe
OK- R- Inhofe safe
SC- R- Graham safe
TN- R- Alexander safe
TX- R- Cornyn safe
WY- R- Enzi safe
WY- R- Barasso (interim/special) safe
GOP: 15 safe + 26 carryovers = 41 minimum GOP
SAFE DEM/INDEPENDENT SEATS [12]
AR-(D=current status)- Pryor safe
DE- D- Biden safe
IA- D- Harkin safe
IL- D- Durbin safe
LA- D- Landrieu safe
MA- D- Kerry safe
MI- D- Levin safe
MT- D- Baucus safe
NJ- D- Lautenberg safe
RI- D- Reed safe
SD- D- Johnson safe
WV- D- Rockefeller safe
DEMS: 12 safe + 39 carryovers = 51 minimum DEM
The EIGHT SENATE “CONTESTS” (Ranked most likely GOP to least)
ALL EIGHT of these are GOP seats, so the
[GOP CANDIDATE= all caps]
[% after = my estimate of % chance GOP win]
MN- R seat- COLEMAN vs. Franken (65%)
NC- R seat- DOLE vs. Hagan (60%)
OR- R seat- SMITH vs. Merkely (60%)
AK- R seat- STEVENS vs. Begich (35%) **PALIN EFFECT**
NH- R seat- SUNUNU vs. Shaheen (25%)
CO- R seat- SCHAFFER vs. Udall (35%)
NM- R seat- PEARCE vs. Udall (Domenici seat) (20%)
VA- R seat- Warner vs. GILMORE (10%) probably a lost cause
Our best chances to pickup seats: NONE
Our toughest seats to defend: VA, NM, CO, NH, AK
It looks like the Dems will pickup at least 5 as it stands right now, which would give them 57 counting the two independents...
The good news is that it appears almost certain (barring a 2006 level catastrophe) that the GOP will retain a filibuster-proof 41 votes
But you need to consider Snowe, Collins and Smith(OR) as potential wildcards in this filibuster calculation.
The GOP needs to hold the fort until 2010 when we will have a slightly more favorable situation. It is not until 2012 that we get a chance to recapture the 2006 “lost seats”...
Sadly, you are right about Turban Durbin. He is an incredible Anti-American hack politician, but we don’t have a Republican Party here in Illinois.
I wasn’t aware that Barkley was getting low teens...if you look at Intrade they have it 60/40 Coleman with no chance for Barkley to win.
The polls appear to have Franken stuck in the high thirties and Coleman in the low forties.
I think Palin is going to help the GOP candidate in MN, but I might be over-optimistic on this one. I honestly cannot see my brethren in MN electing Al Franken as Congressman. (and yes I know about Jesse the Body)...
What would you handicap Colemans’s chances as?
Ted Stevens is back, helped no doubt by the popularity of his state’s governor, Sarah Palin, now the high-profile running mate of Republican presidential candidate John McCain.
Stevens... now trails his Democratic opponent, Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, by just two percentage points 48% to 46%
Thanks
Oh goody.
also the disgrace Senator Warner won’t endorse Gilmore. Remember the disgrace Senator voted against impeachment of Clinton.
Ted Stevens...
The reason that Gov. Palin is getting beat up over “Earmarks”...
I read someplace today that he used these spending requests (many of which were to continue funding ongoing projects) as “leverage” rather than simply include them in the normal appropriations spending package. Can anyone confirm this?
(I didn’t save the link...sorry!)
I think the projection is pretty much spot on. Unfortunately.
You need to list some outlier races, which are likely to hold but not assured of retention. Some examples:
GA- Saxby Chambliss is having some difficulty against ex-state Rep. Jim Martin, who ran a respectable campaign for Lt. Gov. in 2006. Chambliss leads by about 10-16 points.
KS- This was looking shaky for a while. Wealthy ex-Congressman Jim Slattery was within 9 points a few months back. Pat Roberts has regained the momentum, leads by about 15-20 points. He’ll probably win, but it’s not a sure thing.
KY- Mitch McConnell is in a tough contest against wealthy cable TV executive Bruce Lunsford, who ran for Governor in 1999. Lunsford was within 5 points for a while, McConnell is now ahead by 10-14 points. However, McConnell underpolled in 1990 and 1996.
LA- Mary Landrieu is being challenged by state Treasurer John Kennedy. It was almost even for a while, she’s pulling ahead, helped by heavy spending. She’s ahead by around 10-15. However, the Hurricane Ike evacuation complicates things for her.
NE- Ex-Gov. Mike Johanns is pulling away, and it’s more likely safe than not. His lead is about 15-25 points. His opponent, Scott Kleeb, ran for Congress in 2006 and polled much stronger than expected.
NJ- Frank Lautenberg should be safe against ex-Congerssman Richard Zimmer. But his age (84) has voters concerned, and he while he leads by about 10-18, he usually polls under 50%, never more than 52%.
TX- John Cornyn is having some difficulty against state Rep. Rick Noriega, who is polling strongly in Hispanic communities. Noriega is underfunded. In most polls, Cornyn leads by about 10-14, but often polls at around 50%.
These races could produce an upset or two. They’re not safe.
Thanks, especially since I called the midterm elections very well I’m glad to be back on this list.
Tennessee is going strongly for McCain, Alexender and my congressional district is going with Marsha Blackburn.
Wish I could help ya in other states like Virginia. I really hate to see her go Dim.
Got to agree with the others on LA — I read somewhere, that Kennedy was within 5 of Landreau.
The other one to watch is NM Pearce is closing fast on Udall. (went from 26 down to 7 down in one month). If McCain would carry NM Pearce is close enough to upset Udall.
Yah, 2006 was a very bad year for prognostications. I have, since then, learned to trust the polls.
If McCain wins and appoints Joe Lieberman to a Cabinet position, we should pick up another Senate seat. AFAIK, there is no requirement in CT that the replacement senator come from the same party as the departing senator. The GOP governor would presumably pick a Republican to replace him.
I had been under the impression that we would lose a GOP seat if McCain wins, but recently learned that under AZ law, his replacement would have to be a Republican.
I suppose Harry Reid et al could attempt to deny Joe confirmation, but that would require near unanimity among the RATS and I’m not sure that it could be pulled off.
Thanks for the ping!
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Polls can be very informative, the key is knowing the methodology. As long as the methodology is sound the result should be fairly indicative.
I did a full analysis of the races on Saturday:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2081379/posts?page=83#83
Landrieu is that far ahead? Damn. We could 2 cycles without gaining a rat seat? That’s pathetic.
Our trucon-socon faction in the NH GOP is small, but they've come around to the POV that they won't vote RINO. They can't elect one of their own to statewide office, they can beat any RINO, and this has created a very favorable environment for Democrats.
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