Posted on 10/20/2008 3:12:43 PM PDT by Chet 99
Election 2008: Florida Presidential Election
McCain 49%, Obama 48% in Florida
Monday, October 20, 2008
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The presidential race in Florida is now essentially even. The latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds John McCain ahead of Barack Obama 49% to 48%.
Support for the GOP nominee is at the highest level in the past five polls of the state. Last week, Obama held a 51% to 46% lead. He led by seven points in the Fox/Rasmussen poll the week before.
The tighter race in Florida is consistent with national polling, which has tightened up over the past week. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll has generally shown Obama up by four or five points nationally during the past week. Prior to that, Obama had consistently enjoyed a five-to-eight point lead.
The match-up is just as close among unaffiliated voters in Florida, with McCain holding a 46% to 45% edge. The Republican now leads 50% to 45% among men, while Obama holds onto a 51% to 48% lead among women (see full demographic crosstabs).
Eighty-five percent (85%) of Florida voters say they are certain who they will vote for in November, while just 15% say there is good chance they can still change their minds.
McCain is viewed favorably by 58% and unfavorably by 41%. Obama’s numbers in Florida are 53% favorable, 45% unfavorable.
While voters trust McCain more than Obama overall by a 47% to 45% margin, the candidates are tied at 47% when it comes to trust on the top issue of the economy and jobs. McCain still has the edge on national security, 55% to 41%.
Nearly half of Florida voters (49%) believe Obama does not have the right experience to be president, while 41% say he does have the right experience. However, more than a third (34%) of voters says they would be extremely comfortable with him in office, while 38% say they would not be comfortable at all.
Most voters in Florida (68%) think McCain does have the right experience for the job, compared to just 20% who believe the opposite. Still, just 28% say they would be extremely comfortable with McCain in office, while 31% say they would not be comfortable at all.
Though both candidates have promised to bring real change to Washington, 40% of Florida voters say only Obama is capable of following through on that promise, while just 29% say that of McCain. Another 18% say both of them are capable of bringing real change to the Capitol, while just 9% say neither candidate can.
If faced with one of life’s toughest decisions, 48% of voters in Florida say they would ask McCain for advice, while 45% would turn to Obama.
Eighty-three percent of voters in Florida (83%) say they are extremely interested in the election at this point, while just 1% say they have no interest.
Florida has been carried by the Republican presidential candidates in eight out of the last 10 elections, most notably in 2000 when it took a month to determine that George W. Bush was the winner. In 2004, Bush easily defeated Democrat John Kerry 52% to 47%. The closeness of the 2000 race, however, has given Florida the reputation of being a so-called swing state.
People get all focused on the states, but the states will generally fall in line with the popular vote.
I feel that a lot of the Obama supporters are voting for him simply to see what they can get for ‘free’. Period.
after the Palin/RNC Denver surge and before the Lehman collpase and subsequent media attacks
I know of one person who wants obama and he will probably be too drunk and lazy to vote
As for signs well there is not one yard sign for obama where I live not one but there are a few McCain
stickers
I’d say this part of Florida there is about 5 to 6 McCain to 1 obama and that is when I go into Jacksonville
many who have nothing to show who they support are all going for McCain as well.
I must point out I am in the north east part of Fl where it is more conservative but all down the east coast to half way it is mostly McCain from what I have seen and the people I have talked to
Others on here from the Tampa area are saying it is for McCain as well .
the panhandle is for MCCain without a doubt and I talked to a friend down in west palm beach and they said it is running about 2 to 1 for McCain which went for Kerry.
This area is where most older north easterners retire too
Kerry was more popular as he was a known north east Democrat obama is a unknown to the older folks who moved south
sorry for it being long but just wanted to explain it better why I think that
It will be truly amazing of Obama spends over half a billion dollars and doesn’t get elected, though it makes me wonder if the end of the election spending won’t cause a recession all by itself.
So the poll starts out Obama +6.7 and when Scott completes the poll it's McCain +1? That means McCain should be ahead 5-10% in Florida.
What will be the reaction on the street if Obama wins the popular vote by even larger margins than Gore? But loses EC..It’s likely to happen.
Obama has so much stupid money, he is advertising in deep red states like TX, etc. (national prime time ads) He’ll knock down the McCain winning margins in those states, still have monster wins in CA and NY... an electoral/popular split is possible.
If that is combined with huge Dem gains in Congress, the situation will be frighteningly ugly. (but it beats the alternative!)
Of course, I could just see McCain to be stupid enough to do the “honorable” thing and stand down in such a situation, and order his Electors to go for Obama... sigh..
Ras has been cooking the books worse than Fannie Mae. Now that McCain doesn’t have time to raise funds we are going to start seeing the real polls.
Pray for W, McCuda and Our Troops
Didn’t I read somewhere that Obama is carrying the Jewish vote in Florida?. Wow they and Farrakan have alot more in common than I thought.
The estimate for FL was Kerry got 77% of the Jewish vote and Obama might get around 57%.
However, I was not happy seeing Hillary campaign with Obama in FL. I thought she and Bill were doing the bare minimum.
I am hoping Obama gets less than 50% of the Jewish vote. Israelis are horrified that Americans may elect Obama.
Once again my predictions.
McCain- 55%, Obama- 44%
House- GOP 15-20+
Senate- Dems 2-4+
Yeah I am in S FL and I cannot see large pockets of votes for Obama. Kerry did 77% among Jewish voters and they are expecting 57% for Obama. African Americans I think are about 11% of the pop.
Obama got smashed by Hillary in the primary so a lot of N central blue dog Dems will go McCain.
Charlie Crist (RINO Gov) got +7% in 2006 and Bush was +5% in 2004.
I am concerned about CO and VA plus thinking PA will go McCain. Murtha’s ranting and Ed Rendell not going out of his way for Obama lead me to believe PA is in play. Western PA is more like OH.
More Predictions.
Dem Vote For Obama- 82%
GOP Vte For McCain- 95%
Indies- McCain- 53%, Obama- 45%, Third Parties- 2%
Yes, this is good. But, this is 2 different polls where we have seen McPalin up in 2 crucial battle ground states. I know polls are often bogus, but the fact that even with a bigger Dem sample we are ahead is a good thing.
Yeah baby! America is sobering up as election day nears.
Floridian here. Just voted absentee for McCain.
I had to pinch my nose hard though.
Just letting you all know.
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