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Why OBAMA will lose PA (Pflouffe gives away faulty turnout assumptions)
Fox News
| 10/24/08
| Thane Banquo
Posted on 10/24/2008 7:56:05 PM PDT by Thane_Banquo
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To: WatchYourself
If McCain wins PA, its over. He should win Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina. With PA he could LOSE Bush states Nevada, Iowa, Colorado, and Virginia and still win the election.You're forgetting New Mexico. If Obama loses PA but keeps all the other Kerry states + NM, IA, CO and VA he gets exactly 270 votes. That's enough to win.
That's not a crazy scenario, as Obama is +7 in New Mexico, +6 in Colorado, +8 in Iowa, +6 in Virginia, and +3 in Nevada.
And that's assuming McCain actually pulls off a come-behind in Pennsylvania.
Obama could also still win w/o Pa if he knocks off Missouri (most recent Fox-Rasmussen Poll O 49, M 44) or Indiana (Big Ten and Survey USA both have Obama up). And I'm not sure why you're so absolutely confident that McCain has nothing to worry about in NC, OH or FL, even though all three are trending ok-ish over the last 24 hours.
Bottom line -- if McCain wins PA, he's in a bit better position, but it's definitely not over if he wins it. A PA win and an election loss are totally possible pairings.
81
posted on
10/24/2008 8:42:10 PM PDT
by
Alter Kaker
(Gravitation is a theory, not a fact. It should be approached with an open mind...)
To: Thane_Banquo
If McCain/Palin win PA, and I think they will, then they will win the election.
Do you all remember the men’s 400 meter freestyle relay during the Olympics. The amazing come from behind leg that Jason Lezak turned in against the fastest swimmer on the planet? The upset victory that nobody expected? Do you remember the reaction of Michael Phelps - his primal yell of unadulterated joy? That is going to be me on election night when they call PA for McCain/Palin.
82
posted on
10/24/2008 8:42:15 PM PDT
by
JJHLH1
To: Thane_Banquo
Operation Chaos continues...
Well done good sir!.
83
posted on
10/24/2008 8:42:52 PM PDT
by
Crim
(Dont frak with the Zeitgeist....http://falconparty.com/)
To: HerrBlucher
Obama is so over. Yeah.
I read somewhere that he's like all the cool "dot.coms" were before the big crash. So '90's.
84
posted on
10/24/2008 8:43:12 PM PDT
by
XR7
To: Alter Kaker
Perhaps. But what if all the polls are wrong? They were wrong about Kerry.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
85
posted on
10/24/2008 8:43:50 PM PDT
by
goldstategop
(In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
To: Thane_Banquo
Besides, 06 was less a vote for liberals than a rant by conservatives who stayed home or voted libertarian, or voted for so called conservative dims.
86
posted on
10/24/2008 8:44:30 PM PDT
by
prov1813man
(While the one you despise and ridicule works to protect you, those you embrace work to destroy you)
To: goldstategop
Perhaps. But what if all the polls are wrong? They were wrong about Kerry. 1. The polls weren't wrong about Kerry.
2. What if monkeys fly out of my butt?
87
posted on
10/24/2008 8:47:14 PM PDT
by
Alter Kaker
(Gravitation is a theory, not a fact. It should be approached with an open mind...)
To: goldstategop
Only if the cities go for him. It's the cities that carry the state.
If obama doesn't carry the cities, or most of them, he won't get NY.
I'm very interested in seeing how this plays out considering Hillary is NYs senator. I don't know whether her supporter's loyalties are with her or the Democratic party.
I couldn't get NYS red/blue map alone; it only came as part of the country map.
88
posted on
10/24/2008 8:47:15 PM PDT
by
metmom
(Welfare was never meant to be a career choice.)
To: Thane_Banquo
Sorry Poof, Im not a mathematician, rocket scientist, or graduate from a prestigious university (such as they are). I am however from Rouseville, PA. You know that racist and redneck NW part of the state that is so obviously unenlightened by Rep Murtha standards.
Tell you what; if my lazy, racist, deer hunting, red necked, no account friends could find it in their hearts to tear away from those bar stools at Sutchs Midway Lounge for an hour or two, Ill bet your numbers come November 4th just might take on a whole new different meaning. Cheers, you putz
89
posted on
10/24/2008 8:48:40 PM PDT
by
ArchAngel1983
(Arch Angel- on guard)
To: Alter Kaker
LOL. I didn't know we had President Kerry. Yeah, pollsters have a lot of flying monkeys are riding what they think is a sure bet this year.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
90
posted on
10/24/2008 8:50:05 PM PDT
by
goldstategop
(In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
To: metmom
Marist College released a poll today of 527 Likely Voters in New York:
McCain 29%
Obama 65%
Und- 4%
Result:+36D
Something tells me McCain should stick to the battlegrounds... he's not winning New York.
91
posted on
10/24/2008 8:50:44 PM PDT
by
Alter Kaker
(Gravitation is a theory, not a fact. It should be approached with an open mind...)
To: Frantzie
92
posted on
10/24/2008 8:52:14 PM PDT
by
Stentor
(Obama is Bill Ayers' Renfield.)
To: rom
I think McCain will win PA.
And I think McCain knows it. If he does (and keeps Florida, Virginia and Ohio), hes in GREAT shape to put this election to bed early on election night.
Of the 4 States mentioned (PA, FL, VA, and OH), the one I worry about most is Ohio. I think the Dems will steal it with the help of ACORN.
What say ye?
93
posted on
10/24/2008 8:52:23 PM PDT
by
no dems
("Extremism in the defense of Liberty is no vice...." Barry Goldwater)
To: VigilantAmerican
Erie has historically been known as somewhat of a belwether American city, representing a cross-section of typical US cities or something along those lines. In the city itself, I'd say based on stickers/signs, it's about 2:1 Obama. I get the impression that it's usually more strongly Dem than that... in the primary it was mostly Hillary signs.
It seems like this is as well as McCain could expect, but I'm an outsider, so I'm not sure how the city normally goes.
94
posted on
10/24/2008 8:52:55 PM PDT
by
GCC Catholic
(Sour grapes make terrible whine.)
To: HerrBlucher
Obama is so over. On Nov 5 he will be yesterdays news, a has been, actually, a never was. He will be humilated and so will all his creepy crummy commie cronies.
Oh my; how I pray that you are right in your assumption. Please God; let it be so.
95
posted on
10/24/2008 8:54:41 PM PDT
by
no dems
("Extremism in the defense of Liberty is no vice...." Barry Goldwater)
To: no dems
It is worrisome. It just means that real voters will have to work that much harder.
That said, I’d like to believe that the GOP is watching Ohio closely.
96
posted on
10/24/2008 8:54:59 PM PDT
by
rom
(Keep Senator Government from Spreading YOUR Wealth! McCain/Palin '08!)
To: goldstategop
LOL. I didn't know we had President Kerry. Yeah, pollsters have a lot of flying monkeys are riding what they think is a sure bet this year.We don't have President Kerry. The polls said Kerry would lose... and he did. Of the 20 national polls conducted closest to the 2004 election, 17 had Bush ahead, 2 had Kerry ahead, and 1 had a tie.
That's pretty good, considering the outcome was Bush 50.7%, Kerry 48.3%.
97
posted on
10/24/2008 8:55:02 PM PDT
by
Alter Kaker
(Gravitation is a theory, not a fact. It should be approached with an open mind...)
To: Thane_Banquo
I agree. I think McCain will win PA. Wouldn’t it be great if he pulled out a win in Michigan also.
What are the chances? Anybody?
98
posted on
10/24/2008 8:55:53 PM PDT
by
no dems
("Extremism in the defense of Liberty is no vice...." Barry Goldwater)
To: GCC Catholic
McCain is not going to carry any big city. He'll be content with medium sized cities, small towns and rural America. Life's not fair.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
99
posted on
10/24/2008 8:57:07 PM PDT
by
goldstategop
(In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
To: Alter Kaker
Bottom line -- if McCain wins PA, he's in a bit better position, but it's definitely not over if he wins it. A PA win and an election loss are totally possible pairings. I think it's over not so much from an electoral college standpoint but because Pennsylvania will be such a bellwether for the rest of the country.
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