Posted on 10/24/2008 7:56:05 PM PDT by Thane_Banquo
Earlier this evening FoxNews ran a piece quoting David Pflouffe (read "poof") saying that the Obama camp couldn't figure out why McCain was campaigning in PA. Pfloufe said that in order for McCain to win PA, he would have to win 20% of Democrats, 95% of Republicans, and 60% of Independents.
So I calculated, based on 2004 PA turnout of 41% Democrats, 39% Republicans, and 20% Independents, what kind of edge that would give McCain.
If McCain managed to pull off such a feat, he would win 57%-43%, a 14 pt margin! If McCain wins PA by 14 pts, he'd probably win every other state but Illinois!
So then I decided to find out the DEM-GOP spread necessary to come up with Pflouffe's scenario. In other words, I wanted to see what kind of DEM turnout Pfloufe was expecting in order to have McCain just barely edge out Obama by winning 20% of D's, 95% of R's, and 60% of I's
In order for McCain to actually need that kind of result, Pfloufe must be expecting Dem turnout to be roughly 20 pts higher than GOP turnout in Pennsylvania!
If they actually think that's going to happen on election day, the Obama camp is going to be very disappointed.
The point? Now we see who is feeding these faulty Dem turnout assumptions to the major pollsters
You're forgetting New Mexico. If Obama loses PA but keeps all the other Kerry states + NM, IA, CO and VA he gets exactly 270 votes. That's enough to win.
That's not a crazy scenario, as Obama is +7 in New Mexico, +6 in Colorado, +8 in Iowa, +6 in Virginia, and +3 in Nevada.
And that's assuming McCain actually pulls off a come-behind in Pennsylvania.
Obama could also still win w/o Pa if he knocks off Missouri (most recent Fox-Rasmussen Poll O 49, M 44) or Indiana (Big Ten and Survey USA both have Obama up). And I'm not sure why you're so absolutely confident that McCain has nothing to worry about in NC, OH or FL, even though all three are trending ok-ish over the last 24 hours.
Bottom line -- if McCain wins PA, he's in a bit better position, but it's definitely not over if he wins it. A PA win and an election loss are totally possible pairings.
If McCain/Palin win PA, and I think they will, then they will win the election.
Do you all remember the men’s 400 meter freestyle relay during the Olympics. The amazing come from behind leg that Jason Lezak turned in against the fastest swimmer on the planet? The upset victory that nobody expected? Do you remember the reaction of Michael Phelps - his primal yell of unadulterated joy? That is going to be me on election night when they call PA for McCain/Palin.
Operation Chaos continues...
Well done good sir!.
Yeah.
I read somewhere that he's like all the cool "dot.coms" were before the big crash. So '90's.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Besides, 06 was less a vote for liberals than a rant by conservatives who stayed home or voted libertarian, or voted for so called conservative dims.
1. The polls weren't wrong about Kerry.
2. What if monkeys fly out of my butt?
If obama doesn't carry the cities, or most of them, he won't get NY.
I'm very interested in seeing how this plays out considering Hillary is NYs senator. I don't know whether her supporter's loyalties are with her or the Democratic party.
I couldn't get NYS red/blue map alone; it only came as part of the country map.
Tell you what; if my lazy, racist, deer hunting, red necked, no account friends could find it in their hearts to tear away from those bar stools at Sutchs Midway Lounge for an hour or two, I’ll bet your numbers come November 4th just might take on a whole new different meaning. Cheers, you putz…
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
McCain 29%
Obama 65%
Und- 4%
Result:+36D
Something tells me McCain should stick to the battlegrounds... he's not winning New York.
Cardinal Rigali is the boss in Philly. He has recently made something very clear to Catholics.
Cardinal Rigali: Abortion is the “Transcending Issue of Our Day.”
In the city itself, I'd say based on stickers/signs, it's about 2:1 Obama. I get the impression that it's usually more strongly Dem than that... in the primary it was mostly Hillary signs.
It seems like this is as well as McCain could expect, but I'm an outsider, so I'm not sure how the city normally goes.
It is worrisome. It just means that real voters will have to work that much harder.
That said, I’d like to believe that the GOP is watching Ohio closely.
We don't have President Kerry. The polls said Kerry would lose... and he did. Of the 20 national polls conducted closest to the 2004 election, 17 had Bush ahead, 2 had Kerry ahead, and 1 had a tie.
That's pretty good, considering the outcome was Bush 50.7%, Kerry 48.3%.
I agree. I think McCain will win PA. Wouldn’t it be great if he pulled out a win in Michigan also.
What are the chances? Anybody?
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
I think it's over not so much from an electoral college standpoint but because Pennsylvania will be such a bellwether for the rest of the country.
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