Posted on 10/28/2008 9:44:32 AM PDT by Bushite
These were conducted Oct. 23,24,25
Bucks County: O: 49 M: 43 2004 Results: K: 51 B: 48
Allegheny: O: 52 M: 42 2004 Results: K: 57 B: 42
Erie: O: 50 M: 43 2004 Results: K: 54 B: 45
York: M: 57 O: 39 2004 Results: B: 63 K: 35
Montgomery: O: 51 M: 39 2004 Results: K: 55 B: 44
Chatted with a pollologist to make hide or hair of those numbers, and apparently it all comes down to Obamao’s margins in Philly, if it is below 400k and 80% of the vote, McCain can win PA, if Philly goes 80% for Obamao, it is a tough tough job to win PA.
Basically, McCain has to keep it reasonably close in Philly, and he has to up the margins that Bush got in the rural areas.
Not so fast. Obama is 5% behind Kerry in Allegheny. That’s big. With undecideds and Bradley, Obama may not even make it to these “final” numbers.
I sense a ‘duh’ coming ;)
According to this, Obama is greatly outperforming Kerry in Pennsylvania.
Obama widens the gap from Bush/Kerry in:
Bucks county by 3%
York County by 18%
Montgomery County by 1%
and Mccain only narrows the gap in:
Allegheny by 5%
Erie by 2%
So Obama will now win PA over McCain GREATER than Gore beat Bush and Kerry beat Bush?!?!?!
Horsecrap. WHERE ARE THE NUMBERS FROM?!?!?!?!?
So if the polls are correct, Obama is doing about the same as Kerry did in 2004, maybe slightly better. It’s going to hinge on McCain doing better in Philly than Republicans usually do, or Obama doing worse in terms of turnout.
Didn’t PA go to Kerry in 2004?
okay..I added them up to be simple.
Kerry got 253
Bush got 242
So far
Obama is getting 241
McCain is getting 234
For McCain that’s -7 from Bush’s numbers.
For Obama that’s -12 from Kerry’s numbers.
I’m probably all wrong here..LOL
Someone double check me!
ping - I am confused too.
26 posts and we haven’t yet established where these polling #’s come from?
Is a pollogist a doctor of poles? Nevermind.
The undecideds are 7%. That could be a huge factor and I tend to think undies will go mainly for Mac.
Don’t forget, PA would have one of the biggest numbers of PUMAs who are deliberately saying they will vote for Zer-O.
I think if this is true, it is pretty good news.
again, Source?
I agree! The PUMAs are also huge in PA and they get counted in the Dem vote. Same with the people from Clintons for McCain and Democrats for McCain. Throw in the Bradley effect and I think McCain wins PA and we pick up some Congressional seats.
The PUMAs have a real effort ongoing in PA with help from NY State PUMAs.
The Hillary supporters being livid at Obama is the one factor not being counted in the polling.
A poll Doctor?
No, they work at the Networks...lol!
He has been following PA closely, and is a solid McCain/Palin supporter so I give him the benefit of trust on this issue.
Watch, Tuesday, a Federal Court will order the polls to stay open late in Philly...
Actually, that’s narrows the gap in York by 10%. That 5% gain by McCain in Allegheny is big. If that had happened in 2004, Bush would have won Pennsylvania.
Who are you and where did you get these numbers?
Obama isn’t outperforming Kerry except in one county.
Friend of mine with some very good info.
I would like to keep the details as private as possible to not compromise him.
Party ID is from the hard reg. numbers. (not disclosed)
samples range from 400 LV to 462 LV
THESE are the numbers the McCain campaign HAS.
where do these numbers come from?
Three points:
1. The poll was taken 10/23-25 in the aftermath of the huge market drops last week Thursday.
2. McCain is running 5% ahead (there’s that number again) of the Kerry margin of victory in Allegheny county which is the largest of the the group.
3. Whatever Bradley effect there is is most likely to be strongest in PA with all the Racist and Redneck criticism.
This state is close, no doubt, but if that 5% outperform holds up, McCain has a great shot at it.
Interesting figures.
Allegheny looks good, to be expected.
I’d assume Luzerne and Lackawanna would look good.
The rest of South West would look good.
South Central (York, as well as Lancaster, Cumberland, Dauphin) might be a problem. Obama did pretty well there in the primary, and Ron Paul did pretty well there.
No, it’s not a tight window. The numbers are worse for Obama than for McCain. Mac has an excellent chance.
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