Toast - Why Obama Will Lose and the Political Analysts Will Be Destroyed

seanmaelstrom.wordpress.com ^ | Nov 3, 2008 | seanmalstrom

[LibertyUSAmerica]

I’ve checked my email, and I have over a hundred new messages. And I can’t get to anything resorting to ‘Sean Malstrom’ due to real life situations. Luckily I changed my career gears long ago. But my old profession of political analysis is going to be absolutely destroyed. I still think McCain will win the election and do so by a larger margin than Bush did in 2004. When this happens, a hurricane of outrage will be unleashed at the political analysis business, mostly the pollsters. People will demand to know how they could be so off. In other words, the future of the political analysis business will be destroyed as their reputation will become destroyed in the upcoming days.

[LibertyUSAmerica]

Excellent analysis of what should happen tommorrow. Lots of common sense that seems to missing in the media and polling organizations....

By the way, his comments about IA are spot on... It is very very close...

[BAW]

Vote baby vote!

[TheFourthMagi]

Totally cool with me.

[Earthdweller]

Yep..sounds about right.

[1COUNTER-MORTER-68]

!!!BWAhahahahahaha!!!

[wardaddy]

nuts

this pissant blog vanity is breaking news?

man...where are the mods these days?

every single pro-Maccain post is either a vanity, blog or no name pundit

shite

[Safrguns]

If you are wrong, this country deserves everything it gets.

[igoramus08]

Quotes from the article -
“During the primary, it kept being reported that Clinton was ‘pulling out of a state’ or ‘falling apart internally’ and ’state polls show double digit Obama lead’ and so on. The reality was that Clinton did not pull out of those states, wasn’t falling apart internally, and state polls that showed double digit Obama leads ended up either becoming small Obama wins (such as Virginia) or comfortabel Clinton wins (New Hampshire, California, Pennslyvania, etc. etc).”

“The polls are way, way off this election cycle. Pollsters have admitted that this election has the highest ‘refusal to respond’ number. The ‘undecideds’ are people who don’t want to declare their choice. Why would they do that? If you belong to a Union, and they tell you to vote for Obama or ‘else’, you will not answer a pollster for it could be a union boss checking up on its members. PUMAs have declared their intention to lie to pollsters and they are organized. And there are many people who don’t want to declare ‘McCain’ because of being percieved as a ‘racist’.”

Remember Axelrod is the master of astroturfing. They are trying to depress Republican turnout with the Obama is inevitable talking point.

[BellStar]

Take Your Plungers to the Polls!

Take Your Plungers to the Polls!Republican County Commissioner Steve Radack in Houston, Texas has purchased over 1,000 plungers to distribute at the polling places this Tuesday.

Radack, a longtime county commissioner, is known for rallying Harris County conservative voters.

“You should wave your home plunger and rally conservatives to vote! We can win this election if we just keep fighting. Conservatives across the country should wave their plungers to get out the vote for John McCain and in support of Joe ‘The Plumber’,” encouraged Radack.

Radack is also encouraging people across the nation to take a plunger with them to the polls on Tuesday.

Wurzelbacher, an Ohio working man, was thrust into the national spotlight last month when he approached Democrat Barack Obama with a question about his tax plan.

“I am calling for a national movement in support of “Joe the Plumber” and McCain on Tuesday. Joe represents the real America. He’s a hardworking, middle-class guy who is concerned about being taxed out of a job,” said Radack. “I am doing this for all Americans who support Joe “The Plumber” and are concerned about small businesses surviving if Obama is elected.”

Radack will be distributing plungers to poll workers who will be supporting conservative candidates Tuesday. He is asking all “Joe the Plumber” Americans to wave their plungers and take their plungers when they vote at the polls on Election Day.

“Waving a plunger for the next two days will send a powerful message that people will encourage conservative Americans to vote,” Radack said.

Take Your Plunger to the Polls!
Commissioner Steve Radack
(713) 465-8000 - plungersatpolls@yahoo.com

[Minn]

Maybe this guy knows his politics, but he sure needs a proof reader.

[Salamander]

Proofreader is one word....:)

[gotcha!]

[TheConservator]

This is actually some very persuasive analysis.

It is going to help me sleep better tonight.

[Plutarch]

I doubt this guy is right, but he does describe a lot of what I have been seeing, but not talked about anywhere else.

Obama's socialism scares people. A lot of Republicans are very motivated to vote. It is an entirely different feel than in 2006, when we the big spenders made us embarrassed to be Republicans. But this is mentioned nowhere just about, save for this guys posting.

[GLDNGUN]

It’s the best overall analysis I’ve read outside of the MSM echo chamber. God, please let him be right.

[stripes1776]

Excellent analysis of what should happen tommorrow. Lots of common sense that seems to missing in the media and polling organizations....

Yes, I actually read the whole article. The guy makes a lot of sense. I particularly like this part:

Political analysis is not about math. Political analysis is about people. To analyze politics, you must be able to analyze people. In other words, the poet and novelist becomes the political analyst, not the mathematician and software engineer. Politics is all about people.

It seems no one is interested in studying ‘people’ anymore. Look at the political analysis currently. There is very little analysis of the current ‘liberal’ or ‘conservative’, for example, or the person from Pennslyvania or person from Iowa. In fact, there are no people. There are only numbers. Stark, lifeless, numbers. The problem with leveling political analysis to nothing more than a soup of numbers is that it cannot measure intensity. What does intensity have to do with politics? Well, everything. Intense people are those who vote.

And I hope he is right about this one:

Take to the bank, folks, Pennslyvania is turning red this election. I’ve been talking Pennslyvania for the last couple of election posts so might as well continue. Pennslyvania is the *special state* of this election, the state that everyone will be talking about after the election. In that regards, Pennslyvania is to 2008 as Florida is to 2000 and Ohio is to 2004.

And I think this is a very good way of looking at conservatives:

With conservatives, there is a three legged stool of three different types of conservatives. The first leg is strong foreign policy (represented by McCain). The second leg is Social Conservatism (represented by Huckabee). The third leg is Economic Conservatism (represented by Romney). Reagan was all three legs of the stool.

There is lots of other good analysis in this article. I am putting this guy on my favorites list.

[2ndDivisionVet]

This is probably the best analysis I’ve read this whole election cycle.

[Salamander]

I know....I was just trying to make Minn smile...:)

[tanuki]

Thanks for posting. I’m hoping he’s right, but even if he isn’t there was a lot of good info, here.

One thing I must comment on; he says that foreign policy/defense conservatives have McCain and social conservatives turn to Palin but economic conservatives don’t have a figure in this race. Yes they do-his name is Obama. As we’ve seen more of his core beliefs, the more motivated all conservatives have become that he can’t be allowed anywhere near our money or property or jobs. As good a reason as any to come out and vote against him.

[Salamander]

“It is an entirely different feel than in 2006,”

I’ll say.

Apocalyptic abject terror, fear and loathing.

[vbmoneyspender]

I though the analysis was going to be the standard kook-in-orbit self-promotion bit - but the other posters are right. That is one of the best analyses I have read — better even than Obi-Wan’s over at the Campaign Spot.

[cherry]

quite a read....quite a read....well done.....

So its Pumas, Plumbers, and Palin!......that is going to be our new rallying cry....

PUMAS,PLUMBERS, AND PALIN....BOORAH!.

[greeneyes]

WOW! What a great article.

[goldstategop]

Best analysis I've ever read that approaches politics from the human as opposed to the analytical, mathematical aspects. After all, it concerns people. The author made two comments that I thought stood out: that Obama is this cold person who is indifferent to his own family and on the other hand, you have people who under different circumstances would never work together, meeting across lines to defeat him. His lack of "warmth" and the enemies he has made doom him. Obama spent close to a billion dollars yet never established a rapport with the American people. Its turning both into a referendum on him and into a referendum on his leftist socialist views. If America doesn't like his views, then neither will they trust him. We will see tonight what the country decides about Obama and his vision for its future.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[scott7278]

Thanks for posting this!

[Technical Editor]

Very impressive. Indeed, the content seems so good that the lack of proofreading becomes wholly unimportant. A look at the rest of his site shows he’s no schlump.

So, we’ll remember his name if he’s right, won’t we?

Seems like a clear-thinking person — and a very smart one.

I do hope, as we all do, that he’s right.

Thanks for posting this.

[freeangel]

fingers crossed

[cherry]

"every single pro-Maccain post is either a vanity, blog or no name pundit"

you didn't even read it did you?

Because the media is so slanted, and refuses to say anything positive about our candidate, vanities are ok by me:......they are posted along with the "Obama already elected in 2012" and "Obama winning 400 electoral votes"......as a counter balance.....

at this time , keep the good vanities coming...we can choose to read them or not....

[oioiman]

totally concur, McCain is toast, so much delusiongoing on here, both major candidates are each too deeply-flawed puppets to be worthy on anything except scorn

[stripes1776]

This is actually some very persuasive analysis.

It is going to help me sleep better tonight.

I was think the same thing.

[wardaddy]

it’s frustrating and depressing cherry

every damned article I see that seems encouraging is somme damned vanity or blog

i’ll do “wardaddy thinks Mccain will win big tommorrow because his cat’s sleeping on his back tonight” fore I go to bed.

please dear, you knows these vanities are non stop

it’s all we got sadly I reckon

[goldstategop]

Conservatives are that scared to death that's one reason they're coming out today, another is conservatives are angry at the MSM and want to teach it a lesson and conservatives just like Sarah Palin that they want to vote for her. All those reasons will fuel an explosive conservative turnout we haven't seen since 2004. The MSM and the pollsters are missing this development. They have focused on the Democratic story but have neglected the other half of the picture. That's why I believe the polls don't show the intensity, passion and resolve to defeat Obama that animates conservatives. That may be far more decisive than the black vote in this election.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[wardaddy]

I have had a realstic view of the polls since they turned (back then folks loved them remember?, we were ahead)

and I have had to fight nonstop with thread bullies over it.

one must simply buy the koolaid or else

our only hope is record....really record GOP tunrout

[cherry]

"I doubt this guy is right"

is he wrong in saying that even the pollsters report record numbers of hang ups?......is he wrong when he states that Rat numbers are given more weight due to cross over votes, Puma votes and youth votes?

Is he wrong when he says what we all feel:.....there is a strong, strong surge for McPalin not reported by the drivebys?

and is he wrong when he states that Politico and the 538 sites were set up suspiciously around the time barry started his coronation drive?

that barry is pulling the same tricks now as he did to "defeat" Hillary? ....the propaganda machine working overtime to give false impressions?

there is much right about this article.....

[goldstategop]

You know.. conservatives are just fed up. It takes a lot to get riled up but what we've seen has made us had enough. That's all that be said today. GO AND VOTE!

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[Ancesthntr]

Take Your Plungers to the Polls!

But please clean and disinfect them first. PLEASE!

[AndyTheBear]

Heartwarming analysis...and I know how I fit into it:

AndyTheBear == "Broken Glass Conservative"

[goldstategop]

From my keyboard to your words, if you aren't p*ssed off, you won't make history. What will it take to get conservatives to make history? Or are we going to leave that to the Left?

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[TruEastTexan]

Well I”m not sure about Palin, but the MAC IS BACK! Heck, let’s take our yellow ribbons to the polls. Let us not forget what John McCain sacrificed for us to have this priveledge tomorrow.

[Ancesthntr]

Obama's socialism scares people. A lot of Republicans are very motivated to vote

That is the truth. I don't particularly like McCain, but he's already gotten my vote and my wife's (and a bunch of others I know) just because he isn't Obama. Literally, for the first time in my life (I'm 47) I'm scared - terrified - of a major party's candidate for POTUS. Before I merely disagreed, was disgusted, hated, loathed or tolerated them (with the exception of Reagan - him I loved and respected). At least all the rest were basically patriots, and any differences I had with them were over policy or judgment. Not so with Der Obamessiah - scariest candidate I've seen on this continent EVER.

[Rick_Michael]

Really interesting view. Especially his point on where Obama is campaign ie big cities...and how safe that is relative to how much McCain/Palin are going into Kerry territory and gaining huge crowds.

We’ll know soon, and I hope his view is the right one.

[Jabba the Nutt]

They are trying to depress Republican turnout with the Obama is inevitable talking point.

They screwed this plan with their outrageous attacks on Sarah Palin. And their attacks on Joe the Plumber. And their banning of reporters from papers that endorsed McCain. And their continual attacks on the People, saying only racists vote against Obama.

They've managed to p*ss off tens and tens of millions of people.

[Boucheau]

“every single pro-Maccain post is either a vanity, blog or no name pundit”

Oh, really?

Well, go find an MSM post to suckle on.

I like to hear from the “no-name” pundits and bloggers.

So many anti-vanity elites about these days.

I can go to any political site on the web if all I wanted was big name punditry. I come here for the exact thing you seem to despise.

FReep on!

[KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle]

Palin is appealing to conservatives due to the ‘fire in the belly’ where she is expressing what conservatives want, what they wished their conservative politicians would say and fight back against, in their perception, is a hostile media to them. Palin does not articulate conservative philosophy in her speeches as she appears more populist. Palin is not a female Reagan, but a Truman in a skirt. I’ve been reading much on Truman lately, and I’ve been struck with the similarities. Truman was an ardent outdoorsman, one from a small town and related extremely well with the rural population. Taft, among others, thought Truman was below them and kept referring to him as ‘filth’ and a ‘redneck’. Famously, Truman alone believed he would win his election when everyone else said he wouldn’t and traveled across the country visiting various farms and other small towns. The reporters traveling with Truman noticed that everywhere he went, there were large crowds. The electorate referred to Truman more by his first name, ‘Harry’, with the common phrase of ‘Give em Hell, Harry!’ Truman was not a wordsmith, but he had a fire in his belly and, most of all, his speeches held warmth. At every stop, Truman praised the rural people there and often talked about something in the locality. Truman, by his biographers, is most remembered for his constant energy, how his appearance was always ‘fresh’, how he always looked ‘rested’, and appeared in high spirits most of the time. Truman was constantly made fun of by his rural pronounciation and his non-intellectual demeanor by the press, yet those things endeared him to the rural electorate. In all my life, I have never seen a Vice Presidential nominee out-pull the Presidential nominee or steal his spotlight.

Solidly nailed my own reason for (VERY reluctantly) voting for *ugghh* McCain this year, right there: Sarah!!!

[top 2 toe red]

Did someone force you to stop and read this or something?

No, I didn't think so...take your pissy attitude and go read the crap articles the MSM are printing, that should make you happy.

[FastCoyote]

Wow, I so want to believe this analysis! Very smart guy.

One thing that struck me is his claim that union folk in Pa will not poll as McCain supporters in fear of their union bosses - strikes me as true.

[Knitting A Conundrum]

Dang good analysis. Tomorrow will prove if he’s right or wrong, but I am betting he’s right.

[doesnt suffer fools gladly]

Fascinating analysis.

[y2gordo]

“One thing I must comment on; he says that foreign policy/defense conservatives have McCain and social conservatives turn to Palin but economic conservatives don’t have a figure in this race. Yes they do-his name is Obama.”

No, THEIR name is the House Republicans.

[cherry]

" PUMAs in Pennslyvania." "Harriet and Betty Jean are back from the airport. They were turned down at the rally for McCain because there wasn’t room. So they high tailed it to the airport with their signs in the hope they could see him. They saw McCain’s car drive onto the tarmac and were despondent when the car headed away from them. Then, the car abruptly turned around and John McCain leapt out of the car and he ran over to the group with a huge smile on his face. Cindy and Joe Lieberman quickly followed. Betty Jean said McCain was quicker than the Secret Service who had to run to keep up with him. McCain thanked them enthusiastically and hugged Betty Jean. It made her day."

very telling......very telling....

that is why I am thinking this guy is SPOT ON!

[y2gordo]

I think his best point is where he talks about this election no longer being a referendum on Obama but a referendum on socialism. The fierce public comment against the bailout bill shows that.