Posted on 12/01/2008 8:24:37 PM PST by fkabuckeyesrule
7 p.m.: Walked out of the Gwinnett auditorium with Tom Baxter, late of this page, who made this observation: That the thousands who attended the Sarah Palin/Saxby Chambliss rally were the most down-scale crowd he’s seen at a GOP event this year.
In other words, these were white, young blue-collar newcomers to the process.
“They’ve got no money,” Baxter noted. Three weeks ago, the Chambliss rally that featured John McCain in Cobb County drew a smaller and substantially different crowd — still white, but older and in business suits.
At the end of the 35-mile drive back to Atlanta, the Jim Martin rally at the state Capitol — featuring U.S. Rep. John Lewis and hip-hop star Ludacris — was just shutting down. Not as large a crowd as the Palin event, but close to a thousand, who gathered in the open on a cold, blustery night. So not a bad showing.
An emphasis on youth was the one thing both events had in common on Monday. We’ll see which side turns out.
4:50 p.m.: The biggest applause lines so far for Sarah Palin have been on abortion and the Second Amendment. She spoke about the remaking of the Republican party.
“”We recognize there was frustration, disappointment by the electorate,” Palin said. Palin promised a GOP that was both conservative and oriented to the American working class.
She just finished, with everyone again standing. All in all, the speech was very similar to the one she gave this morning. Palin goes from here to the National Governors Association meeting in Philadelphia, where the agenda includes a meeting with President-elect Barack Obama.
4:35 p.m.: Sarah Palin, governor of Alaska and former GOP nominee for vice president, just got an extended standing ovation from a crowd of several thousand in the Gwinnett Center.
Palin said re-electing Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss, and denying Democrats a 60th vote in the Senate, was essential to “maintaining the checks and balances needed for our democracy.”
She mentioned that she had been here once before — a politician always likes to say, “It’s good to be back” — when her oldest son graduated from boot camp at Fort Benning. “Georgia, you took care of my boy, now he’s taking care of you,” she said.
On Chambliss: “Saxby’s not going to be an easy yes vote, but he’s not going to be an automatic no vote,” Palin said.
4:25 p.m.: The preacher has given the invocation. Among the gathering’s sins, he proclaims, is the “political correctness” to which many Americans have succumbed.
“We have broken your laws and called it tolerance,” he said. The preacher thanked God for the nation’s biblical foundations, and for the refusal by some to “to bow to modern idols.”
State Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine led the Pledge of Allegiance. U.S. Sen. Johnny Isakson is introducing Saxby Chambliss now.
Chambliss campaign people say 20,000 people have seen Sarah Palin — who hasn’t appeared yet — during the day. Chambliss’ re-election is necessary, Isakson said, “to stop a runaway train.”
4:10 p.m.: Still waiting on Sarah Palin and Saxby Chambliss. But close to 60 people have been standing on the dais waiting for 40 minutes or so. It’s very clear that Georgia’s Republican leadership doesn’t mind being seen with her. Quite the opposite.
You may think that strange, but quite a few Georgia Republicans were more than cautious when it came to being seen with John McCain. Even last month, after he lost.
3:46 p.m.: Just so you realize that very little is impromptu in any campaign, the Insider just spotted an aide passing out a hand-painted “Palin-Chambliss 2012” sign.
This event isn’t far from Ralph Reed’s office in Duluth. He’s here, too. Along with many state lawmakers from Cobb, north Fulton and Gwinnett counties, too. And Cobb County Sheriff Neil Warren.
More hand-crafted signs. “Read my lipstick. Vote Sax.” No porcine references.
3:35 p.m.: Runoff? What runoff?
Oh, the Saxby Chambliss signs are plentiful, but it’s clear even before you walk in that this is a Sarah Palin for President event, four years ahead of its time.
Several thousand people are already here at the Gwinnett Center, a majority grouped in front into one large mosh pit.
A decidedly younger crowd than Republicans usually draw to the events like this, and the music is less twangy as well. More rock than country, and many young ladies with tiaras and beauty contest ribbons.
A Chambliss spokeswoman says the press will have to be satisfied with the stump speech that the governor of Alaska will give here — no separate press availability, where news is more likely to be made.
Three previous speeches — in Augusta, Savannah and Perry — have all been similar. The main theme that Palin has used thus far: That the national GOP needs to be rebuilt, and this is the place to start.
Dozens of people are now packing the stage.
Lauren “Bubba” McDonald, a Public Service Commission candidate also in tomorrow’s runoff, has positioned himself so that any straight-on camera that captures Palin will include him in the background.
not really . people voted for racial reasons
I am not sure I would call Reagan part of the DC and establishment. From lifeguard to radio announcer to actor to governor to President,there seems very little DC establishment about him. I am not sure he was part of the Tina Brown, Sally Quinn dinner party circuit.
One thing to consider, even in McCain’s loss, he still held about 95% of the vote that Bush got from 2004. Bush got 62M, Mccain got around 58.5M as of now, that may grow a bit when all is said and done. Still the 2nd most votes a Republican has ever gotten. For all the effort the media put in to elect Obama, and in the end it paid off, there were still at least 59M or so who saw through their facade, who didn’t buy into the hype. Who can be counted on as a potential base of support going forward.
Compare McCain’s 95% retention rate to other past instances when a party lost the WH or the incumbent was defeated.
In 1992, Bush41 held about 82% of the vote he got in 1988. He plummetted from 48M in 88 to 39M in 92.
In 1980 Carter held about 85% of the vote from 76. He dropped from 41M to 35.5M.
In 1976 Ford held about 82%. He dropped from the 47M Nixon got in 72 to 39M.
Humprhey in 68 dropped almost 30% from Johnson in 64. From 47M to 34M.
The point is that historically speaking, McCain did a pretty remarkable job in holding on to the votes that the party had from the last election. Most times a party loses power/an incumbent loses, they bleed a much greater maount of votes than we did this year.
I attribute a good portion of McCain’s retention to Palin. If he had put Lieberman or Ridge on the ticket, he’d have been down in the 80-85% range of Bush41, Carter and Ford, not in th 95% he got.
These are really good crowds for a runoff a few weeks after a major election. Usually GOP crowds struggle in these situations. Speaks well of the base’s opinion of her. Not that the base’s opinion of her is in doubt.
If Saxby wins by a decent margin he had better remember who helped him do it. Had he been a stronger conservative in office he wouldn’t have needed a runoff to begin with.
Reagan was not “of DC and the establishment”.
Where there many younger, (voting aged), people? If so, what would you say was the ratio of male to female?
All true jeltz ( I know you keep track of such things) however Gov Palin can do what McCain cannot...grow the Base of the Republican Party via her personality and her ideals.
I hope Sarah continues to get around the country (and to at least a few foreign countries) during the next two years. I’d suggest she get to Iraq PDQ, not just to see her son but also to meet with the government for a day or two.
Perhaps to Russia for trade talks.
He was part of the Hollywood crowd which is almost tantamount to the same thing. He was good friends with people like Walter Annenberg, George Will, Bill Buckley and others who were very much part of the establishment. EVen in CA he was friends with Unruh and others and was accepted as part of the establishment. He was friends with Jimmy Stewart, Cary Grant, Liz Taylor, Frank Sinatra, Dean Martin, and just about every other major star of that era. Imagine a Republican candidate who was close, personal friends with Brad Pitt, George Clooney, Julia Roberts, Tom Hanks, Denzel Washington and Will Smith and that’d give you some idea.
He was two term governor of the most populous state in the country.
While I’d agree he wasn’t as much a part as say Cheney, the Bushes, Dole, McCain, etc... he was definitely there as part of a comfort level.
I meant it more in that regard. Comfort level with him and Nancy as people and their background. People disagreed with his politics, but they felt comfortable with him and Nancy as people, they were of their class(if not above it), part of Hollywood glamour, etc...
From the beginning, it was very apparent, to me at least, that the NY/DC media and political establishment looked down on both Gov Palin and her husband as unfit to share their space, as beneath them and as deserving of contempt. I could be wrong but I never detected that personal animosity towards President Reagan and Nancy.
That’s what I was trying to get at. Gov Palin was seen as very threatening because she is so far from what they represent and a win by her would be such a repudiation of everything they believe in and stand for.
There was defnitely an extra edge to the media assault on her and it went way beyond being issue/policy based because on issues she was pretty much the same as McCain who they loved(and would have been perfectly ok with if he had won sans Palin).
I’m just contending that it was more because they saw her as hick from the sticks who didn’t belong in their rarified air in Georgetown and Kalorama and Dupont Circle and Embassy Row than because she momentarily lapsed when asked if she reads The Economist or Time, or because she couldn’t name drop Kelo v New London at a moment’s notice.
She has a job in Alaska. We need here on the job here.
Galloway from the AJ Const. was on Greta’s tonight and
stated much of what was in the article.
Great to not hear a Lib bashing for a change.
Gov. Palin brings out the base for sure.
Far younger and more female than usual.
“Ive read reports of her being offered 5-7M for a book deal.”
She should do the book deal and donate part of it to charity. All serious candidates who win take advantage of the book opportunity to get their msg out to the public and take advantage of the notoriety involved. The book will be panned by the NY Slimes but that’s to be expected. Same thing happens to Ann Coulter, Michelle Malkin and all other Conservatives. Regnery Press. Use a high powered, Conservative ghost writer.
I dearly hope she can deliver, because that is the only way we can win.
He was certainly part of the Hollywood establishment. He was President of SAG for 5 years or so. He was close friends with Jimmy Stewart, Cary Grant, Liz Taylor, John Wayne, Spencer Tracy, Dean Martin, Bob Hope, and just about every other major star of that time.
Being part of the Hollywood establishment is as good as being part of the DC one. It provides automatic entry. It automatically qualifies you.
The cocktail party types and salon hostesses all knew they had friends in Ron and Nancy. There was a great article in Vanity Fair last year about the DC social scene, especially during the Reagan years.
Even in the NY/DC establishment, there was never this “you are so beneath us” vibe with Reagan that I got in this campaign.
My point was that there was and still is a visceral reaction against Gov Palin. It goes way beyond issues or policy. It’s clearly personal, and other than Greta Van Susteren, the impression I got from evey other reporter or anchor or writer or pundit when discussing her was one of sheer and utter contempt and disgust that came from a different place than the usual political biases or disagreements. I think her having the baby and carrying it to term was part of it. There was a lot. Someone will probably write about it more extensively at some point.
My contention is a lot of it was class based and region based, more of a “they’re just not our kind of folks” deal. Ironically, Barack and Michelle fit right in and no one had any problems wit hthem whatsoever. I guess we have come a long way whne the leftist black radical with muslim name and his wife are instantly accepted and thw down home white couple are shunned.
I think part of reason Reagan had a better relationship with the NYC/DC media was because they turned on Carter.
A late senior NBC correspondent told several friends of mine that he (and others in the media) supported Reagan over Carter. It was clear the media was in the tank for Obama this year.
Over time I think there was some personal animosity towards the Reagans-more so to Nancy I think-but nothing compared to the animosity directed to Palin (you and I are in complete agreemen on that).
“”That’s what I was trying to get at. Gov Palin was seen as very threatening because she is so far from what they represent and a win by her would be such a repudiation of everything they believe in and stand for.”
If Todd Palin were a man of wealth and power instead of a blue collar man with nothing but his outdoor job and wages, I think that it would have been much easier for elitists of the left and right to accept her on the stage (and her bumping them off of it).
This thing about all of this actually being accomplished by her, with out even a parental inheritance or famous name to open doors for her seems to be causing a real disturbance among people that like a certain social order.
She is a throw back to a younger, more volatile, less structured America, and she does all of this in a skirt and high heels, while handling a brood of five kids and a very satisfied looking, verile husband.
If he wins, I hope this taught him a lesson.
I hope so.
I’m worried that we appear to have tapped out the white white vote, taken it as far as we can. And we had a pretty good run with it.
But it’s the law of diminishing returns and it’s shrinking every year. 2012 will be the last election where it tops 70%. It’s shrunk from 87% in 1992 to 81% in 2000 to 74% this year. The growth is all in the black and hispanic vote, and things don’t look so bright there. Combined with the way Obama seems to have captured the younger whites(although not nearly as much as you’d think. he won whites 18-29 around 55-45, a decent margin, but based on the media and all you’d think he absolutely dominated that age group)
There’s something like 250M+ over 18 and eligible to vote in the US. Even in a high turnout election this year, only around 130M or so voted. They’re another 100M or so that either registered and didnt vote or didnt even register. Obama and the dems did a very good job of finding those folks on their side for this year particularly among blacks, hispanics and the youth. We have to do the same. There’s plenty of rural folks, white voters, religious folks, etc... that didn’t vote this year. In the next four years we have to find them and make sure they show up in 2012.
We need to find a few issues where the public supports us big time and opposes the dems big time and go from there. Like the dems did with Iraq, the economy and Bush. The public was 70% against us on those issues and more and the dems went from there. In the next year or two I’m thinking opposition to amnesty, to further bailouts/spending, and capitalizing on the foreign policy/natl security blunders Obama is sur eto make will be a good starting point.
But you are right that the party has to grow and find new areas of support. 72 year old lifers like McCain and Dole aren’t the answer.
If McCain and Palin could pull close to 59M in the worst year for the GOP arguably since 1964 or 1932 and still win 22 states, we have something to go on. IN and NC were decided by less than a pt. FL was 2 pts or so. OH was around 4. It’s not like we were blown out everywhere.
There was clearly an anti GOP backlash for the past 2+ years and we bore the brunt of it last month, but things can turn around fast. We went from Nov 92 to Nov 94 in only 2 years. Look how fast the dems went from despair after 04 to now. Things change in politics all the time.
We’ll see. A lot depends on Obama, though. If he does well, it could be a long road. If he turns out to be another Carter, things will look quite different next time around.
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