LA-04: Fleming (R) vs. Carmouche (D) (special runoff election tomorrow)

KTBS 3 - Shreveport ^ | December 5, 2008 | Nick Caloway

[St. Louis Conservative]

The final election of the season takes place tomorrow, ending the showdown in the 4th Congressional District. Democrat Paul Carmouche takes on Republican Dr. John Fleming, and Independents Chester "Catfish" Kelley and Gerard Bowen Jr.

The polls open at 6am and close at 8pm. Voter turnout is expected to be in the 15 to 20 percent range. Chilly weather, along with a negative campaign tone are partly to blame for the expected low turnout.

We are your election headquarters tomorrow night. You can stay up to date on KTBS 3 News and on ktbs.com.

[St. Louis Conservative]

The public polls give Fleming (R) a slight lead or have them tied, however Carmouche had an internal poll that put him up 10 (that was over weeks ago though). This race is all about turnout. Does anyone have a feel for this race?

[perfect_rovian_storm]

Well, if recent history tells you anything, it’s that the guy who says he has ‘internal polling’ that’s the opposite of the public polling, is full of crap.

[rawcatslyentist]

I heard FLem and Catfish on the local am talk radio a couple a days ago.
The Indie candidate was the more impressive. Catfish talked like a normal person. IE not a LYING POLITCIAN/PROLETARIAT.

As usual the Pubbie didn't even try to defend himself against the ONLY Mooche radio spot attack. He also spoke proletariat speech.

Chucky was skeered. The Dhim cand hid his head in the sand. No show. No damage.

[St. Louis Conservative]

Whatever the hell that means.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Where’s Barbara Billingsley to translate when you need her ?

[Larightgirl]

We’re being bombarded here in LA with Carmouche ads claiming Fleming will put social security at risk, that Fleming is a millionaire that’s only looking out for the rich...same ole scare tactics they always roll out to cover for the lack of real ideas and vision.

[rawcatslyentist]

My bad.

The Independant came off on the AM talk shows as the best candidate.

The republican came across as a legalese talking, forked tongue politician.

The demonrat didn't even call in.

[Clintonfatigued]

Louisiana ping

[Impy]

Wow Beaver’s mom is still alive.

There are 2 indie’s both called “ex-Republicans”. Could steal a couple % points.

Polling indicates the Republican could actually beat Bill Jefferson in the NOLA seat. Very high negatives, low black turnout.

I doubt it but it would be sweet.

[Impy]

You live in the district?

Voting for a Catfish?

[fieldmarshaldj]

Yeah, it would be nice if Joseph Cao took it (of course, he’d only be a one-termer as an undamaged Dem would take it back in 2010, no matter the climate).

[Galactic Overlord-In-Chief]

There are 2 indie’s both called “ex-Republicans”. Could steal a couple % points.

Ugh. Receipe for disaster.

This district is the furthest away from my part of the state (suburban New Orleans) so I don't have the best feel for it. But this race seems to have the worst aspects of our open seat races. A divisive GOP primary, so-called Republicans running as independents, and a GOP nominee who sounds less than inspiring. In the past six years, we lost LA-05, LA-06, and LA-03 in the same or similar fashion (though we managed to get two of them back).

In any case, much of Fleming's success will depend on whether Carmouche roars out of Caddo Parish with a big lead. Bossier City just next to it is strongly Republican and ought to provide a counterweight to it. Red River, Bienville, and Natchitoches parishes tend to lean Dem in local elections (McCain carried them, but by much smaller margins than he did in the rest of the state). The parishes lining the Texas border are almost always Republican; three of them gave McCain over 70% of the vote.

[Galactic Overlord-In-Chief]

I’m seeing quite a few Cao ads on tv and hearing them on the radio. I’ve never seen GOP ads for that seat before, it’s quite a change.

[fieldmarshaldj]

That’s nice, but given the realities in LA, I’d rather score a victory in a seat we can hold for the long term rather than scoring a brief one-time victory in NOLA, y’know ? The resources need to go mostly to the 4th.

[Bogey78O]

The good thing for Cao is that the Vietnamese community in New Orleans lives mostly in Michoud and wasn’t run out of the area by Katrina. Lots of Vietnamese in New Orleans and they are very insular. Hell, they even had their own radio station back before Katrina... might still do.

[MitchellC]

Bump. I'm not seeing a thing about these two races on FR. I didn't even know about them until I saw Patrick Ruffini's post LA-2: Why We Need A 435 District Strategy on the Next Right.