Posted on 02/13/2009 8:45:48 PM PST by Lorianne
As goods pile up in wharves from Bangkok to Shanghai, and workers are laid off in record numbers, people in East Asia are beginning to realize they aren't only experiencing an economic downturn but living through the end of an era.
For over 40 years now, the cutting edge of the region's economy has been export-oriented industrialization (EOI). Taiwan and Korea first adopted this strategy of growth in the mid-1960s, with Korean dictator Park Chung-Hee coaxing his country's entrepreneurs to export by, among other measures, cutting off electricity to their factories if they refused to comply.
The success of Korea and Taiwan convinced the World Bank that EOI was the wave of the future. In the mid-1970s, then-Bank President Robert McNamara enshrined it as doctrine, preaching that "special efforts must be made in many countries to turn their manufacturing enterprises away from the relatively small markets associated with import substitution toward the much larger opportunities flowing from export promotion."
EOI became one of the key points of consensus between the Bank and Southeast Asia's governments. Both realized import substitution industrialization could only continue if domestic purchasing power were increased via significant redistribution of income and wealth, and this was simply out of the question for the region's elites. Export markets, especially the relatively open U.S. market, appeared to be a painless substitute.
(Excerpt) Read more at fpif.org ...
Scary to think of what China’s “safety valve” would be.
We don’t got no more money to buy your crappy products.... ;-)
[ It was all funny-money anyway.... LOL... ]
Life was and still is quite cheap in Asia..
This is going to really upset the Asian markets when they find out that consumers are NOT going to be able to “buy the bling” anymore.
Now people want quality goods that will last longer, something that China neglects on a continuing basis.
No more the throw away its cheap mentality, people will spend a little bit more a little bit less to have something more reliable a lot longer.
Buy American before it too is Communist.
- because it has had such a poor record of attracting foreign investment and doesn't export as much stuff as most of the other countries in the region. As a consequence, the Philippines' economic growth rate has been lackluster (not bad for Latin America, good for Africa, but poorly for East Asia).
Even with this downturn set to hurt the region (including the Philippines), if I were to look at things objectively, and not favor any particular nation, I would argue that EOI is still the best option for poor countries to industrialize rapidly. The rich West is able to buy expensive exports that relatively few people in the manufacturing countries can (currently) afford. If they were restricted to the domestic market, countries seeking to industrialize could only produce as much as their own country is willing to buy, and only the low-grade products their country is able to buy.
After developing, the way South Korea and Taiwan* have, however, these countries have to work on turning their economies into domestic-consumption ones. China's trying to do that now, even though it isn't developed, because it needs to keep providing jobs to hold off larger, and more dangerous, protests.
Anyway, that's my little spiel and understanding (or not) of the situation.
*Singapore and Hong Kong are developed, but because they are so tiny, they need to be export-driven indefinitely; I'm including services as exports.
This is the setup for wars.
This is the setup for wars.
yep
100 million dead Indians.
L
funny froo froo money for funny froo froo product.
Now we are back to the real deal. A ten dollar horse and a 40 dollar saddle.
After all McNamara had such a stellar record 'helping' in Asia.
L
Note: this is the same person who was SecDef under Kennedy and LBJ.
Well, they got a billion of em. How may dead chinese are they willing to spend for a hundred million dead indians?
one export is not in jeopardy ; American men continue to go for Thai wives in record numbers . Sawasdee kap!
Convert almost everything to military production, then use the stuff. Isn't that the normal historical response to bad times?
They'll incinerate as many Indians as they need to in order to achieve that goal.
India better start making nukes. Lot's of them.
L
You said — “one export is not in jeopardy ; American men continue to go for Thai wives in record numbers .”
Yeah, I know a guy around here with one of those wives. He tried to “hook me up” with someone over there... I kept telling him, no, but he kept on trying... LOL..
I’d say Russia, Mongolia, and a number of other neighbors have reason to be afraid. The PRC may need to find the PLA something to do.
Of course, and this is how we got out of the Great Depression #1. Anyone care to remind me again who the warmongers are supposed to be?
I think we have quite enough salad shooter (TM) now.
Okay so now we find out that our visas, master cards and amex’s were holding the world up. This article effectively refutes Peter Schiff’s thesis that the dollar is screwing up the world economy and once every relegates it to the dustbin of history life will again be one big bowl of cherries.
India is not as strong as China, but does still have nuclear weapons, and is able to hit Beijing with missiles from India proper.
Russia still has plenty of nukes. I'd agree that Mongolia probably ought to be edgy, maybe even Burma (though India might get into a war over that, and even the rest of ASEAN).
ping
It is amazing how much people are learning to live without these days. On the other hand Jimmy Kimmel reported a 6% increase in condom purchases this January over last January. I guess the octo-mommy really put a scare into a few people.
Funny. I thought of the Indians the other day when I read that China controls much of the world's 'starch stocks.' They are:
* Rice = 50%
* Corn = 35%
* Wheat = 30%
These numbers have increased steadidly since 2005.
Vietnam is China’s historical punching bag, sometimes with more success than others. Throw Thailand and the Phillipines in there too, with South China Sea oil rights as the catalyst. Weren’t we talking with the Vietnamese a few years ago about moving back into Cam Rahn Bay?
If the Asians think their exports are down now, they haven't seen anything yet.
Democrats are reliable for getting us into huge wars. I'm sure they won't disappoint us on that expectation. They will put us into the fray with a sorry capability to defend the country. The socialists would love to see our country defeated.
Russia and China, with no where else to turn, will start preparing for war and returning to Stalinism and Maoism. And, they will be preparing for war against the US.
I don’t think China will attack Russia and its Soviet allies. They are allies and Ideological brothers. They will attack weaker targets (AKA a West weakened by Obama and Co.) with the help of allies in this hemisphere (AKA Venezuela and Cuba).
If nothing happens in the ME and gas stays at a buck 80, I will say the system is still in place. JMHO
I remember, Bob was such a mench.. was’nt he..
How bout 50 or so backpack nukes that can be carried by a donkey or llama?
Desperate men who have to buy asian mail order brides are a sick bunch who would love to spread their mental disease at any opportunity. Good on you for saying no.
You said — “Desperate men who have to buy asian mail order brides are a sick bunch who would love to spread their mental disease at any opportunity. Good on you for saying no.”
Well, this was a different story, for this guy, than what some others have done. In his case, he went over there for some surgery. He was in the hospital for a while and then had to have some home care. One of the nurses that took care of him at home is the one that came over here and got married to him. I don’t believe he even knew her apart from his stay in the hospital and his home care afterwards, in that country, before returning back to this country. So, it was a bit of a different deal there.
As for me, I’ll stick with good ole Americans, thank you...
yes, I had overlooked that rather obvious point.
Yes, but will they sacrifice the Three Gorges Dam, e.g., just for starters...?
Due to their "one child" policy and their overabundance of young men with no real "outlet", it ain't gonna be pretty.
I made a vow last year not to participate in a "democrat" economy.
So, are you going to buy everything from South Korea, since they currently have a conservative government in office?
Yep.
Kondratieff might have been right.
Ping for later
I was just being silly, although I do most of my shopping on the internet and my addiction to Korean dramas is unquenchable. : )
The Korean dramas are more clean cut, less racy than the Latin ones.
The world’s economy has depended on the US.
The reason I can afford to buy K-dramas is because I haven't paid for cable TV in a couple of years.
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