The Four Iran Scenarios and "Basiji Hunting"

The Washington Note ^ | Friday, Jun 19 2009, 2:06PM | Steve Clemons

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

One of my colleagues at the New America Foundation's Global Strategic Finance Initiative, Douglas Rediker, received this note from a friend abroad. It's illuminating as to how a well-connected Iranian internationalist who has been in Tehran during much of the post-election unrest sees matters now. To protect Rediker's source, I can't make references about where he is today.

The email:

As of yesterday the options facing the country were well summarised by Simon Tisdall and Ellie Rose in The Guardian:

1 - Happy ending

To widespread surprise, the hardline Guardian Council conducts a thorough recount of votes, as ordered by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and decides, amid much embarrassment, that there should be a new election. Mir Hossein Mousavi wins. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad accepts defeat. Pro-democracy demonstrators celebrate triumph of "green revolution". New government responds positively to US invitation to "unclench fist" and open talks on nuclear issue.

2 - Damp squib

The partial recount ordered by the Supreme Leader concludes Ahmadinejad won a clear victory, although by a narrower margin. Despite lingering suspicions of foul play, the opposition is forced to accept the verdict amid a continuing nationwide crackdown on dissent and warnings that further disorder will be dealt with harshly. Ahmadinejad, in bad odour with the Supreme Leader for provoking demonstrators, moderates his line on policy issues. Mousavi vows to fight again.

3 - Confrontation

The Guardian Council's partial vote recount and investigation into electoral fraud are rejected by the opposition. Demonstrations spread and intensify, with ever greater numbers of Iranians taking to the streets calling for the resignation of Khamenei and Ahmadinejad. Security forces respond with increasing force, arresting thousands and closing down media coverage, texting networks, websites and Twitter. Purge of reformist leaders, intellectuals, students and journalists continues. Leaderless demos gradually peter out, leaving resentment. Ahmadinejad steps up anti-western rhetoric. Resumed protests at a later date considered highly likely.

4 - A second revolution

An insider cabal of senior clerical and establishment conservatives challenges Khamenei and forces his resignation after a vote in the Assembly of Experts. Former president Hashemi Rafsanjani is elected in his stead and orders an investigation into the actions of Ahmadinejad and other senior members of the regime. Hardliners rally round the president while reformists demand new elections. Amid growing instability, Iran's unique Islamic/secular system of governance appears in danger of collapse".

As of Mr. Khameneni's speech today it seems that (1) above is no longer an option. For everything that Mousavi has publically announced option (2) also seems unlikely.

Unfortunately for everything I know, it now seems its either (3) or (4).

By the way, two nights ago I went out to see a few things ... as the general crowds spread into their homes militia style Mousavi supporters were out on the streets 'Basiji hunting'.

[ASOC]

Option #5
News outlets learn to spell “Tienem Square “ in Persian.

The Mullahs will not give up power without a lot of bloodshed. No dictator ever has.....

[VanShuyten]

Wishful thinking. #2 wins, hands down.

[wolfcreek]

What, *The One*...*the Messiah* ain’t good enough?

[BenLurkin]

Postscript — Google enters into agreement to steer searches away from photos of the massacre.

[BeerLover NYC]

Not bad!

[ASOC]

Missed that

Agreed with the Mullahs or with the State Dept?

[BenLurkin]

Heh-heh!

[ASOC]

It was an honest question.

Given the non-stance taken by The One and Only BogO, I could believe the State Dept told Google to back off.

HOw about BING
Dogpile
ALtaVista
Etc?

[BenLurkin]

Please accept my apology. The “postscript” was offered to the possible 5th scenario that you posed. It was not meant to be a report of an actual happening. I should have been more clear.

[ASOC]

AH - I see now.

Would not surprise me given the way Google bowed to the folks running China....and other dictators.

[SunkenCiv]

1 - Happy ending... 2 - Damp squib... 3 - Confrontation... 4 - A second revolution... As of Mr. Khameneni's speech today it seems that (1) above is no longer an option. For everything that Mousavi has publically announced option (2) also seems unlikely. Unfortunately for everything I know, it now seems its either (3) or (4).

Thanks Ernest.

[Fitzy_888]

The Supreme Leader in Iran is religiously/legally infallible –period. He has entrenched himself. How can the Supreme Leader now flinch with any grace?

This is the blasphemy of the Mullahs, but how they collect their 20% annual tax. And what polarizes Iran from other Islamic states and Sunni’s.

Simply put, arrogance is a sin. (You don’t have to be religious to learn and know this ethic.)

Once the supreme leader sets out to put this down aggressively, presumably Tomorrow, it will be a fight to the finish.

[Marine_Uncle]

"By the way, two nights ago I went out to see a few things ... as the general crowds spread into their homes militia style Mousavi supporters were out on the streets 'Basiji hunting'."
Well that is a refreshing bit of news.

[Marine_Uncle]

Hopefully major numbers of the regular police will join in and go on Basiji hunts. Burn them out of the HQ’s and obtain their arms and ammo and expand. Let news get out that any IRGC that interferes will loose their heads, literally. Then lets see if the regular military folks will grow some balls and do what they should have done a long time ago, once the IRGC started to get to powerful within the governmental framework.