Skip to comments.Amir Taheri: End of Discussion - In Iran, there is a growing consensus that it is time to...
Posted on 07/27/2009 11:46:30 PM PDT by neverdem
Doh! Islam went and did it again.
Perhaps if they try again the outcome will be different.
this is rubbish.
once the thugs are in place.
Mugabe’s war veterans
a revolution is very difficult
Of course, a mere declaration won't do it; you have to force a new balance of power. It won't be pretty.
Iran is locked in a classic power struggle, pitting the house of Khamenei against the house of Khomeini. It has been simmering since Khamenei was appointed Supreme Leader in 1989, but it is only now that Khomeini's heirs have chosen to finally fight back against a complete takeover of the regime by Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guards. The Khomeinists were mistakenly convinced that if they could muster a 70% turnout and win the elections, Khamenei would not dare throw out the results.
Now that Khamenei has refused new elections, the opposition has switched from challenging the June 12 election results to attacking the legitimacy of Khamenei himself. They are counting on Khamenei to continue cracking down on demonstrators, arresting larger numbers of opposition supporters and eventually jailing the leaders. In the end, they believe, Khamenei will so antagonize Qom's ayatullahs that the country's clerical leadership will issue a fatwa condemning Khamenei and the June 12 election. Such a fatwa would strip Khamenei of any legitimacy as Iran's clerical Supreme Leader, eroding his support in the Revolutionary Guards. Already, the enlisted men in the ranks of the Revolutionary Guards are uneasy about suppressing the demonstrations. Its rank and file, like other Iranians, have suffered from the poor economy under Ahmadinejad. Reportedly, there have also been arrests inside the regular army. If true, it's a dark omen for Khamenei. A countercoup may just be on the cards.
Short of an armed insurrection, either through outside help (not going to happen under Obama) or ideally the Army staging a coup (which likely will trigger a civil war with the Guards), the entire regime won't go away with a wimper. Short of a miracle. I think the most promising prospect would be an Army coup hand-in-hand with civilian riots, protests and strikes.
.......fasl el-khitab, an archaic term meaning the end of discussion.......
That is the ultimate tag line
Not that difficult.
If there really is as strong majority all they have to do is refuse to go to work - all of them. A country cannot function long with no one producing anything.
It is pretty darn difficult to force people to work productively in technical jobs. They can't all be supervised and sabotage is often easy under those circumstances. The real issue is do they really have a commanding majority. If they do, then it is really only a matter of organization and will.
I have thought all along that is the best way to end this political standoff. I can’t understand why they haven’t deployed it unless the support is not there.
All it will take is one bullet.
“Now we have had 25 years of a failed Islamic revolution in Iran, and the people do not want an Islamic regime anymore.” —Hussein Khomeini, grandson of Ruhollah Khomeini
Ah, the irony....
Major background story ping!
Thanks for the links.
Meanwhile they work on uranium enrichment. For all we know Mir-Hussein Mussavi, Mehdi Karrubi, and Mohsen Rezai Mir-Qaed, Ali-Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, Muhammad Khatami, and other close associates may have set up a clever smoke screen that would keep the country in a very unstable state, with the goal being, the West at the USA’s lead would have no one in particular to enter into suggested dialog within the Iranian government regarding their being sponsors of terrorism and development of an atomic bomb. It seems to me they do as good a job as the North Koreans to stay isolated, and not feel obligated to follow international laws etc..
When Islam runs the government, people's anger against the government will translate into anger against Islam itself.
Folks, I know neither Arabic nor Parsi though I’ve been around both a little. A very little. Still many of the terms here somehow sound to me like they are Arabic and not Parsi. Are they, or are they not?